The 2026 World Cup expanded, and the national football team had a little hope?

Don't be too happy

On August 2nd, according to the official information of the Asian Federal Union and the AFC Asian Cup, the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifiers and the 2027 Asian Cup prepaid competition system.

The 2026 World Cup will be co -organized by the United States, Canada and Mexico. At that time, the participating teams will increase from the current 32 to 48, while the AFC will receive a total of 8.5 participating places, which is 4 more than the previous 4.5 participating places.

This is a good information for the Chinese men's football team, which has been finalized in the top 12 of the World Cup in the World Cup in two consecutive Worlds Cup. Many fans believe that 4 years later, the national football team can break into the World Cup finals for the second time.

In fact, the situation is not optimistic. As one of the earliest teams to prepare for the 2026 World Cup qualifier, the difficulties and challenges faced by the national football team are actually greater than before.

The only good news is that there is enough time to leave the national football.

The strong team decompression, the weak team lying flat, the blood in the middle

"Isa Japan and South Korea" is the four strongest teams in Asia. In the World Cup only 4.5 places to Asia, these four countries have almost won the quota of the World Cup finals.

In 2005, this old pattern was broken by the Australian men's football team, which was "out of the ocean". Before joining the AFC, the Australian men's football team only participated in two World Cup finals in 44 years, and after joining the AFC, Australia had advanced to the World Cup finals for 4 consecutive times.

The entry into Asia in Australia has completely changed the distribution, lottery results, and the difficulty of the qualifiers of the World Cup Asian qualifiers. Previously, Saudi Arabia, which was in the top four in Asia, therefore absent from two World Cups.

In the case of absolute strength, the challenges faced by Chinese men's football team suddenly increased, and the strength of its own reasons decreased. After the 2002 Korea -Japan World Cup, the Chinese men's football and the World Cup finals gradually farther away.

The World Cup expanded from 32 teams to 48 teams, and the AFC won 8.5 participating places. For the team of Asian three -centered levels such as Chinese men's football, there are more opportunities to impact the World Cup, but the same ones, but the same ones The opportunity has also given the team that is equivalent to the level of Chinese men's football team, and the quota has doubled, and the variables in it also increased accordingly.

In the 2002 World Cup group stage, the Chinese men's and Brazilian men's football competition. Photo/Visual China

According to the official schedule of the Asian Federal Union and the AFC Asian Cup, the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifiers will include four stages:

In the first stage, the 26th to 47th team in Asia made two rounds of the main and away system, and 11 teams were promoted.

In the second stage, there will be 36 teams. The top 25 teams in Asia are divided into 9 teams (4 teams in each group) for 11 teams promoted in the first stage. 18 teams) advanced.

In the third stage, 18 teams will be divided into 3 groups (6 teams in each group) for the main and away circular race, and the top two (6 teams in total) will be eligible for the 2026 World Cup.

The fourth stage is the playoffs. The third and fourth (6 teams) of the previous three groups will be divided into two groups (3 teams in each group) for single -cycle duel. The first place of the two groups will directly advance to the 2026 World Cup. The two second teams will decide the winner through a playoff, winning the team on behalf of Asia to participate in the World Cup intercontinental playoffs.

Judging from the current ranking of Chinese men's football team, we are destined not to participate in the first stage of the competition, but from the second stage of the competition, the third stage of the third stage of the World Cup finals will become the Chinese men's football team The biggest challenge.

Under the arrangement of such a competition system, there are more fault tolerances for teams with strong level of strength. Even if some small errors appear in the initial game, they can still be completed through the subsequent stage; For the team, there will not be much changes. They will be destined to be a runner. The increase in the number of competitions allows the team to have more international events, thereby accumulating their own competition experience.

However, for the Asian midstream team, from the second stage, no game is easy. The more the pressure will be in the future, the earlier the pressure, the earlier "Outside of good results, anyone is closer to the World Cup finals.

Facing the temptation of entering the World Cup, the killing of the midstream team will be more fierce than any previous World Cup Asian qualifier.

Get up early, catch a late collection

From the perspective of the schedule, the second stage of the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifiers will greatly determine how far the Chinese men's football can go. In the top 9 countries in Asia before the grouping, it will become the seed team. Then The game will also be slightly easier.

The current national football ranking is not optimistic. In late June, in the latest ranking announced by the FIFA, the national football ranking fell out of the top ten Asia, ranking 78th in the world, and 11th in Asia.

In July, the National Football team participated in the East Asian Cup competition. It won the third place in one win and one level. In the next ranking of the FIFA, points will increase, but the National Football Team will be absent from all international events in the second half of this year. It is not conducive to the team to maintain its own international football ranking.

In the third round of the 2022 East Asian Cup, China defeated Hong Kong, China 1: 0. Photo/Visual China

Beginning in August 2018, FIFA has adopted a new point ranking system.

The calculation formula based on the SUM algorithm is: "P = PBEFORE+I*(W-WE)". Among them, "PBEFORE" is the international football points before the game; "I" is: the weight of the game; "W" is the final result of the game, and "WE" is the result of the expected game.

The calculation formula of "We" is: 1 / (10 ^(-dr / 600) +1). DR is the difference in points for the two teams in one game, that is, the PBeFore -B team of the DR = A team Essence

The weight of the competition has continued to increase from the Non -International Game Day Friendship Tournament to the Intercontinental Competition to the World Cup. For the Chinese men's football, in the window period of the two World Cup, the best way to improve your international football team is The Asian Cup will be held next.

In May of this year, in 2023, the Asian Federation Asian Cup China Organizing Committee issued an announcement saying that due to the impact of the epidemic, the Chinese Organizing Committee is currently difficult for the 2023 Asian Cup to make a commitment and arrangement in accordance with the fully open mode. After discussing with the Asian Football Association, the Chinese Football Association, and the Asian Cup in 2023, it was decided that this year's Asian Cup football game will be held easily.

On July 18, the Asian Federal Union officially announced that Australia, Indonesia, South Korea, and Qatar submitted an application to the Asian Cup to the Asian Cup to the Asian Football Federation. On October 17, the final competition host will be decided to comprehensively evaluate.

Although the FIFA has begun to evaluate the feasibility of expanding the army many years ago, it is still difficult to speculate that in July of this year, when countries applying for the Asian Cup hosting countries, they know the news that the World Cup will expand.

In fact, the country that becomes the host of the Asian Cup is bound to obtain the "benefits" that the host owner should have in the Asian Cup. In addition to the obvious benefits such as the familiar game venue, reducing the boat and the car, and owning the home fans, you will also have the competition grouping, and Hidden advantages such as referee scale.

The league is weak, players are not connected

Earlier, in order to impact the Qatar World Cup in 2022, the Chinese men's football team adopted the strategy of naturalized players. However, from the perspective of age and competitive state, Betterization players such as Luo Guofu, Exsen, Fisan, Alan, Gaunt, etc. are in After the failure of the gambling impact of the World Cup, they will not return to the Chinese men's football.

And Wu Xi, Chi Zhongguo, Zhang Xianzhe, Hao Junmin, and Zhang Linzhang, the natives of the country will also be unable to accompany the national football team to 2026 with their age. He is also 35 years old.

The 2022 World Handling Asia Twelve Group B The 6th round of Chinese men's football players. Photo/Visual China

Judging from the current conditions, the basic idea of ​​preparing for the next World Cup's national football lineup is based on the 23 -year -old players as the main structure, and some high -aged players who maintain a good -age player form a big list. The prototype has been seen in the cup.

The younger generation of players want to improve and maintain their own level and competitive status, which is related to the good league level and a large number of high -quality competitions. It has been a significant decline. With the normal operation of the high -level league, how to improve the level of a younger generation of football players is a problem that the Chinese men's football team needs to focus on the next period of time. It is also impacting the 2026 World Cup finals The key issues of the circle.

In addition, the candidates for the head coach of the national team are still worth thinking. In December last year, Li Xiaopeng took over the bad stall of the national football team from Li Tie's hand. Although the game that was defeated to Vietnam on the first day of the new year made many fans worried, most fans did not put all the lost pots in Li Xiaopeng’s. On the head, because everyone knows that the full one -month training and preparation time, it is unrealistic to rely on Li Xiaopeng to solve all the problems of the national football.

Chinese men's football coach Li Xiaopeng (left). Photo/Visual China

However, when the World Cup expands the army, the vision is bound to be long -term. The goal of the national football team is obviously only one, that is, returning to the World Cup finals. Do you want to continue to use Li Xiaopeng under such circumstances? If you continue to use it, can Li Xiaopeng give time and sufficient authority? If you don't continue to use, who will lead the team? These problems need to be solved in a short time and make long -term plans. Under the situation where the absolute strength is not enough, the national football team can no longer afford the toss of the coach.

In the history of the World Cup in 1982 and 1998, the World Cup finals changed from 16 teams to 24 teams to 32 teams today. factor.

The "expansion of the army" of the World Cup will undoubtedly make the World Cup more "world", which will make the style of the competition more diverse, increase attraction and influence to increase commercial income, but it will inevitably affect the "gold content" of the game. At the same time The extension of the schedule will also increase the challenge of the athletes. Previously, many world football places have publicly expressed their opposition to the World Cup expansion.

However, these do not have a great relationship for the Chinese men's football. Entering the World Cup finals is not just the dream of a generation of football people. It is also the desire of several generations of Chinese fans. At the moment when the overall public opinion is declining Chinese football, they can enter again to enter again.The World Cup obviously has great benefits and significance for the future of Chinese football.Author: [email protected])

Edit: Hu Yun

Operation editor: Xiao Ran

- END -