Sri Lanka, two huge question marks!

Writing/Sword laugh & Sister Xun Sister

A few months after the economic and social crisis, Sri Lanka began to enter "power vacuum."

Although there are still some demonstrators strolling and taking selfies in the presidential official residence, today the streets of Colombo have become calm. The president and the Prime Minister have announced their resignation, and even the military has come forward in time, which is considered to play an important role in calming the situation.

However, the scene where the situation changed suddenly yesterday was widely spread on international media. How Sri Lanka, which overlay the serious political crisis of "national bankruptcy", is still a huge question mark to be solved.

Sri Lanka, who has once ranked among the high -income countries in South Asia, has fallen into the current dilemma, which has caused widespread thoughts. However, the factors that lead to the current economic and social crisis in Sri Lanka also exist more or less in other countries.

Another question mark is also a more worrying issue that Sri Lanka may not be the last "bankruptcy" country. So, who may be next?

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Sri Lanka encountered another wave of protests since the outbreak of the domestic crisis.

On the morning of the 10th, that is, after the President Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Vikra Marinha announced last night, after a few hours of resignation or willingness to resign, the National Defense Staff Changsha Silva issued a brief statement, emphasizing to solve it peacefully in a peaceful way The current political crisis has emerged, calling on the Sri Lanka people to support armed forces and police to ensure maintaining national peace.

The military's statement and the resignation of the president obviously played a certain role in calming the situation. Local media reports said that the streets of Colombo have basically returned to peace today. However, in international media, Colombo's scenes of the scene of the scene of the rush of Corolon Po were in the event.

The exciting demonstrations began the assembly and march that morning. At about 1 pm, a large number of demonstrators who raised the Sri Lanka flag and even wearing helmets broke into the presidential residence. They stood on the roof and walked around the presidential palace, lying on the bed, swimming in the swimming pool, similar to the picture spread throughout the social network. It is said that there are still people who are still busy in the presidential official residence to today, and busy taking selfies.

Immediately after 2 pm on the 9th, the presidential secretariat and Ministry of Finance, located at the beach, were also impacted. The Prime Minister's private house was also burned.

Sri Lanka media reported that there were tens of thousands of demonstrators on the day, and the presidential official residence and the secretariat had security personnel guards, but they failed to block the demonstrations. More than 30 people were injured in the protests that day, but the demonstrators who shouted the anti -presidential slogan failed to see Rajapaksa that day.

BBC and other media speculated that the whereabouts of the Sri Lanka president's whereabouts, quoting some information that could not be confirmed saying that he went to the airport after the incident, "ready to leave at any time." Others said that he was near the port of Colombo. The suitcase was moved to the boat. "

However, sources from the Ministry of Defense of Sri Lanka revealed that after learning that the demonstrators planned Saturday, the president had been withdrawn to a safe place in advance. On the afternoon of the incident, the Prime Minister of the Emergency Meeting of the Party Leaders also moved to a safe place.

According to Rajapaksa's notice to Sri Lanka Speaker Abvadner, he will resign from the president after 3 days. However, after the Prime Minister Vicramaxa also expressed his willingness to resign, coupled with a number of ministers such as the Ministry of Investment Promotion and the Ministry of Agriculture announced his resignation, Sri Lanka has actually entered a vacuum state of political power.

One day before the situation suddenly upgraded on the 9th, Zheng Zhiyun, the US ambassador to Sri Lanka, called on Twitter to call the police to "provide space and security for peaceful demonstrations." On the 10th, a spokesman for the US State Department also stated on the situation of Sri Lanka to criticize the violent behavior of demonstrators, but also warned the Sri Lanka military to "do not attack protesters and reporters, and at the same time asked Sri Lanka to" quickly act "to find a solution.

Most of the Western media reported by the United States mentioned that the relationship between Rajapaksa and the United States "has always been unstable" because he denied the allegations of war crime in the war in Sri Lanka, and during his administration, Sri Lanka established a "close economic trade with China Cooperation relationship.

The International Monetary Fund, which is negotiating with Sri Lanka on Sri Lanka, also pays attention to the development of the situation, expressed his hope that the political crisis of Sri Lanka will be resolved as soon as possible in order to restore the dialogue on related plans related to IMF support.

On July 6, the Prime Minister Victor Marinha expressed his hope to submit a report on debt restructuring and sustainable development to the IMF by August. He said, "Once an agreement is reached, the IMF will formulate a four -year comprehensive loan assistance plan."

But now Sri Lanka's political situation has mutated, when and who this plan is promoted, they have drawn question marks.

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More than 3 months ago, Sri Lanka had experienced a large round of social turmoil.

At that time, the demonstration was extended from Colombo to several cities, and the protesters asked President Rajapaksa to resign immediately.

At the end of April and early May, Sri Lanka broke out two times in a row.

During this period, Sri Lanka's folk riots continued, and the government asked for help from the outside world. The inflation rate in June reached 54.6%, a new high.

Seeing that Sri Lanka's economy continued to fall. So that the Sri Lankan Prime Minister Victormaissinha on July 6 announced that "the country has bankruptcy", and he believes that the unprecedented economic crisis "will last at least until the end of 2023".

From the "bankruptcy" to the people's lives, which is seriously affected by the people's lives, it is quite fast.

The country's foreign exchange is exhausted, and there is no money to buy fuel because the Russian -Ukraine conflict has seen the price increase. The domestic fuel reserves are basically exhausted, and the crisis of fuel shortage continues. In order to save fuel, Colombo has requested that it is not necessary not to go to work. The people of Sri Lanka have lived a de facto life due to the shortage of fuel.

Moreover, not to mention whether there is any money to buy oil, that is, it takes enough patience to queue up.

There are often many sudden cars and motorcycles outside the gas stations. They are forced for life and must be refueling. Some drivers said, "I have waited here for 3 days, but I can't leave, I can only sleep in the car at night, I hope that the gasoline can arrive tomorrow."

Sri Lanka is facing the worst economic crisis since the independence of Britain in 1948.

The price of people's livelihood has risen, and daily necessities are lacking and expensive.

For example, a few months ago, the price of 4 volumes of a pack of toilet paper was 590 Sri Lankan, which was about 10 yuan. It has now risen to about 20 yuan.

The bigger problem is that when everything is more expensive, the salary is not nominal decline.

However, the sharp depreciation of Sri Lanka currency could not be held.

For example, a senior police officer in Colombo had a monthly salary of 100,000 rupees, which was about 3,000 yuan at that time. It is still this income today, but it is less than 2,000 yuan.

The rise in prices and the depreciation of the rare wages, the life of the people of Sri Lanka can be imagined.

What is even more terrible is that all of this can not see any ease. "The situation is very severe, we may face similar famine in 2-3 months," said Sri Lanka economist Caddyjalmar.

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When talking about the Perspiloka crisis, most analyzes attribute it to the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, Russia -Ukraine conflict, global supply chain break, energy prices soaring, the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes, etc. The revenue of overseas overseas Chinese exchanges has shrunk sharply, and the depression of foundry enterprises.

In fact, these are only incentives. The deeper reason is that Sri Lanka has a high foreign debt, trade and regular accounts have been in deficit for a long time. It is a typical "double deficit country".

Sri Lanka owed foreign debt for a day or two.

Its foreign debt and foreign debt repay rate have been high since 2013. In 2018, the three international rating agencies rated Sri Lanka as a level B2 or B, which believed that the country's debt repayment capacity was weak. Once economic, political issues or external impacts were affected, a higher risk of foreign debt defaults will occur.

Just like the fragile little seedlings, how can it stand a little wind and rain, not to mention that the Russian and Ukraine conflict and the epidemic are superimposed, forming a storm and rain.

According to the analysis of the foreign debt data released by Sri Lanka, some scholars have long been based on the proofing arrangements of the foreign debt's expected principal and interest repayment arrangements. From 2019-2022, 2025-2027, Sri Lanka will usher in the peak period of two foreign debt repayments, especially in the first stage of Sri Lanka It will repay up to $ 15.139 billion in debt principal and interest within 4 years.

To some extent, it can be said that the Sri Lanka crisis will come sooner or later.

In 2009, Sri Lanka ended the 26 -year civil war. In less than 10 years since then, the country has become a high -income country in South Asia.

The short -term economic take -off has temporarily covered the shortcomings of poor management.

Sri Lanka has faced the problem of external economic imbalances for a long time. Foreign exchange income mainly comes from exports, remittances and tourism. Such an export structure is easily affected by changes in the international environment. With the continuous expansion of the trade deficit and the depression of the tourism industry and the decrease in overseas Chinese exchange, Sri Lanka's foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline. At the end of March this year, Sri Lanka's foreign exchange reserves were only $ 1.9 billion.

Foreign debts are also in a vicious cycle.

In Sri Lanka's post -war reconstruction, most of the foreign debt was used as an investment in infrastructure construction, and economic returns could not be achieved in the short term. This caused Sri Lanka to fall into a vicious circle of borrowing new debts to return old debt.

The problem is that Sri Lanka, which has been in a long -term into -daily access, is difficult to borrow preferential loans with long repayment time and low interest rates in the international market. Commercial loans with short financing period and high interest rates have gradually increased.

Some experts analyzed that the Sri Lanka economic crisis reflects the lack of matching of the country's development strategy and development capabilities, and the long -term goals are not matched with reality. In the final analysis, the ideas of some elites are seriously disconnected from reality.

What is even more worrying is that Sri Lanka is likely not to be a "national bankruptcy".

If a country is now high in debt and liabilities, the currency depreciation is fast, and the high dependence of energy and food rely on imports, they are likely to be in the back of Sri Lanka and the crisis broke out.

At present, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil and other countries are facing such risks.

Pictures from the network

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