What chain reactions will Abe's assassination?

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot in Nara, and he had stopped his heart and lungs when he was sent to the hospital, and then died.

The Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, who is building a gust of the Senate, returned to Tokyo urgently. The Japanese government and society generally condemned the shootings. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that we are paying attention to the development of the situation and hopes that the former Prime Minister Abe will leave the danger and recover soon. Australian Prime Minister Albunse, former US President Trump, etc. also shocked Abe's attack. In addition, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who is attending the G20 conference, also expressed condolences to the Japanese side.

On the Internet of China, Abe's assassination incident also attracted strong attention, and quickly appeared on Weibo hot search. Some people suggest that the assassination itself is distinguished from Abe's right -wing political stance, and believes that no matter who happens, such violence should be condemned. But obviously, many netizens have been unprecedented with Abe's past series of Chinese words and deeds.

The Japanese Senate Election vote will be held on the 10th. At this sensitive moment, Abe suddenly assassinated, what chain reactions will it cause voting and domestic politics in Japan? Will it be used by Japan's right, causing Japanese political diplomacy to accelerate "turning to the right", and then have a greater "spillover" effect?

01

In July 62 years ago, Abe's grandfather Kishikuke attended the enrollment of the Liberal Democratic Party ’s new president of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Abe is not so lucky.

The latest news from NHK is that Abe has declared excessive injuries.

At the routine press conference of the Japanese cabinet officials in Tokyo, the chief house officials condemned the assassination at noon, saying that the Japanese government had set up an emergency countermeasure team.

Cabinet members who have made momentum for the Japanese Senate election on July 10 have returned to Tokyo. Kishida Wenxiong also returned to Tokyo. He expressed his condolences on the death of his former Prime Minister Shinzo Shinzo, and strongly condemned the violent behavior of the attacker.

The attack took place at around 11.25 am this time in Japan. Abe made a speech on the Senate election on the streets of Nara at the time. At the beginning of less than two minutes, it suddenly fell to the ground. Two gunshots were reported at the scene.

According to the Japanese media, the suspect left two shots only 3 meters behind Abe and did not escape immediately. Instead, he stood up and was subdued by five security guards.

Abe's chest was shot, and he lost consciousness at the time.

Over time, more information about the suspects is revealed. The man named Yamanaka is 41 years old. From 2002 to 2005, he was a member of the Japanese Maritime Self -Defense Force. According to Japanese media reports, the suspect confessed to the police that he was very dissatisfied with Abe.

Japan's gun management is very strict, but according to media disclosure, the shotguns used by suspects are self -made.

Some media quoted senior police officers that through the TV screen, the guns used by suspicious use were completely self -made, and the modification was quite rough. It could only fill the bomb. After the hit, it would turn into more than 10 steel balls to hit the target.

This emergencies shook Japanese society.

Some Japanese netizens couldn't figure it out: "Former Prime Minister Abe as a special protection object, there are many special services around him. How can he not stop such incidents?"

Therefore, some Japanese netizens directly pointed out that "this incident is completely out of duty of police and intelligence departments responsible for the police." Such roadside lectures only set up a stage in the middle, there are no walls, and there are opportunities to harm politicians in all directions. "This time, it is completely slack in the alert." It is not only one shot to be able to get close to the former Prime Minister of Abe. As a professional special service, it does not act as soon as possible. This should not be at all. "All the special service should go to the United States in the future."

02

Most of the first reactions in Japanese society are mainly condemning atrocities and praying for Abe.

A tweet that appeared on Twitter Search and received 45,000 praise was issued by Japan's extremely right -wing intellectual Takeda.

Abe prayed for the rescue of the intensive care unit in the intensive care unit of the time, "Mr. Abe, please live", "I have never loved Japan as well as you, and use serious values ​​to attract the leaders of all countries around the world." "Japan needs you."

In addition to condemnation and prayer, some scholars see the crisis of trust in Japanese society.

Professor Shi Jing Shi Shi History of Xinxie Qingling University posted in social media: "It is necessary to stop this tendency of society."

He believes that "crime is a mirror that reflects social issues. In many cases, crimes are the tip of the iceberg, and there are huge icebergs below, and the crime has a social background." In his opinion, "this background is" the distrust of politics , Bad trust in politicians. "

Takai Shihi went on to say a long time to express his pessimism: "Politician who is not right to taste, slander is okay, and medium wounds. 'Go to death' is more likely to be accepted by society. Under this social atmosphere, no matter how hard it is, there is no way to change the sense of weakness, and the despair of life and society. It should be respected and elected calmly. "

There are also Japanese scholars who have seen the "crisis of Japanese democracy".

Professor Shioneu Hao from France and Government University has obtained a post of tens of thousands of praises in social media: "Absolutely not allowed" with a gun to assassinate the former Prime Minister of Japan.

He contacted this incident with Japan's democraticism. White Belletho believes that "this is to challenge Japan's democraticism with violence." "If Japanese politics is defeated by violence, Japan’s democraticism will go. "". He further interpreted his point of view: "The former Prime Minister of Abe must not lose his life. This is a symbol of whether Japanese democracy can be maintained." Shiraya Hao's point of view is clear: "This is the crisis of Japanese democracy."

A professor at the University of Kanagawa also agreed that "whether the democratic solution process has come to Japan."

He believes that modern Japan has a very regrettable terrorist tradition. Before the war, a large number of Japanese politicians, including the prime minister, became the victim of terrorism during his term. Over time, maybe the people have felt that all this no longer happens. Judging from the Senate election, some people want to tell Abe or the Liberal Democratic Party, so they resort to atrocities, but the impact of atrocities on the election is likely to contrary to the original intention of the murderer. The work of Abe's administration is another matter, whether it is praise, or to add mourning factor in the election, it should never be.

03

Since the Second World War, Japan's domestic assassinations against politicians are not uncommon, and often lead to serious injuries or even death.

According to the "incomplete" of the Japanese media such as the Asahi Shimbun: In October 1960, the chairman of the Japanese Socialist Party, who was controversial, was assassinated by the 17 -year -old right -wing youth in his speech.

In January 1990, the mayor of Nagasaki was hit by a right -wing group member with a pistol and was seriously injured. In October of the same year, the former Labor Minister Dan Yubing was assassinated by a man.

In March 1992, Kim Maruin, vice president of Liberal Democratic Party, was seriously injured in his speech. In October 2002, the Japanese Democratic Representative, Mirai Ishi, was stabbed to death by a right -wing group member at the door of the house. In August 2006, the office of the former director of the Liberal Democratic Party was burned by fire.

In April 2007, the mayor of Nagasaki was killed by underworld shots. In 2008, Yamaguchi Yamaguchi and his wife were killed in the Ministry of Health Labor and Ministry of Welfare.

A Japanese scholar said that far away, the Japanese political people who had occurred since the 1990s were assassinated, and the murderer mainly came from the right. There are also Japanese media reports that the election where Abe's assassination location is located belongs to the voting warehouse of the Restoration Club, and the Restoration will belong to the Japanese right -wing party.

However, the current information cannot be concluded that the suspect of Abe's suspects and motivation is the end. After all, the political tendencies within Japanese society are quite complicated.

The suspect may be partial to the left, and it is extremely dissatisfied with the "right turn" of Japan's right -wing -headed right -wing promoting Japan's "right turn" at the security and even economic level; it may also belong to the right wing, thinking that Abe and other ways are not far away in promoting the preparation of Japan.

Another possibility is that there is no clear tendency to the party, that is, the bottom of Japanese society, and life is not good. It is believed that Japanese politicians make them live in a difficult life, so they vent their grievances, and Abe happens to appear on the streets of Nara. Although from the background of the long -term economic downturn and deep dilemma of national development from the Democratic Party's governance status in recent years, extreme ideas such as populism are still undercurrent.

If it is the Self -Defense Force, there are possibilities for the reason why Japanese public opinion speculates: first, the right -winged elements, Abe did not fulfill the promise of constitutional amendment; the other is that it is hindered by the self -defense promotion of the Self -Defense Forces, and it is specifically found. Reasons, such as sentimental injuries.

Although similar incidents have occurred before, those assassination politicians are obviously unable to compare with Abe, as a former Prime Minister and Japanese right -wing "big guy" in terms of political influence. Therefore, no matter what the suspect's motivation, Abe's assassination will definitely have a chain reaction on domestic politics in Japan, and even have a certain overflowing effect.

04

The incident occurred two days before the vote of the Japanese Senate election. One direct influence was the flow of votes that still swayed to Abe's Liberal Democratic Party. Regardless of the influence of Japanese society, the attitude of opposing violent assassinations is still consistent. Abe's assassination will stimulate voters' sympathy and voting tendency.

In addition to voting, some concepts that Abe strongly promoted may also be amplified. As a typical representative of the right, Abe has been taking the lead in drumming in recent years to promote the revision of the peaceful constitution, expand the army, intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and even strengthen linkage with the United States to curb China. There are still many people in Japanese society who oppose this, but after Abe's assassination falls, some people may accept some of Abe's claims in sympathy.

In this context, the possibility of Abe's assassination was used by the right wing of Japan.

If you can get an absolute majority in the Senate, and even at the level of social consciousness, some of the rights of the right will attract more attention and support, and will officially provide favorable conditions for the next constitutional amendment to the next constitutional amendment. From these perspectives, Abe's assassination may accelerate the atmosphere and impulse of Japan's "turn right".

A Chinese scholar at the University of Tokyo told Fu Ying that the follow -up impact of this incident can be observed from three perspectives. First, in response to Abe's shot, most public opinion in Japan is basically equivalent to "fighting democracy with violence." Therefore, it can be predicted that the ideology of the Japanese people is likely to further deepen in the direction of "democratic VS".

Second, as far as Japanese political scenes are concerned, Kishida and Abe have been struggling in the Liberal Democratic Party for a long time because of the Great Political Police. Now it is over in this extremely unexpected way. Kishida will become the biggest winner. Winning is stable, Japan has no national elections in the next three years, and the long -term regime of Kishida is about to take shape. Third, economics, Abe's economics will be adjusted in the future. In Japan, Japan will continue to issue bills to issue bills according to the logic of Abe's economics, causing the yen's depreciation price to skyrocket. In the future, Kishida will gradually abolish Abe's economics policies and follow the common prosperity line. Essence

Abe was assassinated, and at a sensitive moment before the vote of the Japanese Senate, the eyes of the region and even international public opinion were led to Japan. At the same time, the news that a Japanese and US military conspired in the deployment of the southwest islands in Japan also exacerbated many people's concerns and vigilance about Japanese military and diplomatic trends.

消息说，去年以来，日美军方多次密谋勾连，企图诱导和施压岸田政府配合美国遏华计划，协助美军在日本西南诸岛部署中导，通过加强“第一岛链”实现对华“ Integrated deterrence ". Judging from the current trend, the U.S. military has launched the land -based mid -range dressing work of the multi -domain special forces (MDTF) and deployed it priority in the "First Island Chain".

Some scholars believe that Abe's assassination is "the biggest event in Japanese politics after the war."

Abe's first prime minister's first prime minister in Aya Chunichiro had launched an ice -breaking visit to China, which objectively promoted the improvement of Sino -Japanese relations. After the second stage in 2012, he also made some attitudes and actions to improve relations with China from Japan, including the default "Belt and Road" initiative and promoting cultural exchanges with Chinese and third -party cooperation. In general, Abe is more pragmatic in the appointment of the Prime Minister. Although it is subjectively, it is for the consideration of the national interests of Japan to promote cooperation in the field of economic and trade humanities.

But at the same time, Abe's two sides of China are also obvious. Including cooperation in the fields of economic and trade, Abe has continued to move to China at the level of diplomacy and security, including actively promoting constitutional amendments to constitutional amendments and partial prohibitions of collective self -defense. The Abe government proposed in 2016, the purpose is to engage in values ​​alliances and siege to curb China. After leaving the position of the Prime Minister, Abe has not to mention. He has continued to make noise in anti -China. Especially in the past two years, remarks about the Taiwan Strait and "nuclear sharing" with the United States have exposed his conservative political nuclear right -wing genes.

Japan's right -wing and the United States are unable to hold back in the direction of breaking the "special defense" and military lifting. If Abe's assassination is deliberately used by the right wing, it has an impact on Japan's direction of diplomacy and security or even larger as a "overflow", which is likely to be further enlarged. This cannot be worried and vigilant.

Source: Make up one knife

Writing: 刀 鞞琫 执, sword laugh & sister -in -law

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