Nancai fast comments: Abe's attack will have a triple impact on Japan

According to the "Japan Economic News" report, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe fell to the ground when he gave a speech in Nara today, and was subsequently sent to the hospital. As of now, the 41 -year -old criminal suspect Yamashina was also arrested by the Japanese police at ease of attempted homicide. Japan is a country with strict gun control, and Shinzo Abe has not only shocked the entire Japanese society, but also has a profound impact on the future trend of Japanese politics.

The Prime Minister's attack in Japanese history is not without the precedent. In 1909, Ito Bowen, who served as Prime Minister for four times after the Meiji Restoration of Japan, was assassinated and died in Harbin, China; in 1932, then Japanese Prime Minister Inu Yiyi was shot at home; Grandfather) also encountered assassination, but in the end it was only injured, and there was no danger of life. Since entering the new century, the Japanese government has adopted strict gun control measures. Although shootings have also occurred from time to time in Japan, it is mainly a fire fighting between triads. It rarely has a serious problem of firearms like the United States. This time, the reason why Shinzo Abe suffered from shooting at home and abroad at home and abroad was not only about Abe's own politician status, but also in the most rare shooting incident in Japan in the past three or 40 years.

Since the Prime Minister of the Prime Minister in August 2020, after taking a brief rest of Shinzo, Abe has quickly returned to Japan's political circles, and often attended various speeches, interviews, and meeting overseas politicians. It can be said that Abe has maintained a high sense of social existence after his steps down, which is very different from the former Prime Minister of Liberal Democratic Party such as Mori and Futian Kangfu. At the same time, Abe is also the leader of Abe in the Liberal Democratic Party, and has a significant influence on the internal affairs and diplomacy of the Sugawi government and the Kishida Wenxiong government. For example, the negative policies adopted by Tan Yiwei after taking office and the recent repeated mention of the Japanese defense budget to more than 2%of the GDP that the Kishida government has repeatedly mentioned it was affected by Abe. From this perspective, although Abe Jinsan is not the Prime Minister, in view of its high influence, Abe will have an impact on the future direction of the Japanese political circles in the future.

First, Abe's attack will affect the Liberal Democratic Party's Senate election. Japan is currently in the Senate election, and Abe's shooting is precisely during the period of helping the Liberal Democratic Party candidates. Although many Japanese media have previously predicted that the Liberal Party will win in the Senate elections, in view of the current historic depreciation of the yen and the high price of Japanese prices, the Liberal Democratic Party is not very smooth. Considering the culture of sympathy for the weak in Japanese society, for example, in August 2020, Abe announced his depression after his physical health, and he was sympathetic to public opinion from all walks of life in Japan. The possibility of obtaining more sympathy and support votes to obtain more Japanese people.

Secondly, Abe's attack will lead to changes in power structure within the Liberal Democratic Party. Shinzo Abe is currently the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party's largest faction. Abe has a total of 95 parliamentarians and has a pivotal weight in the Liberal Democratic Party. However, Abe's attack may lead to the existing division of Abe. An example worthy of reference is Gu Yuanyi, former director of the Liberal Democratic Party. Gu Yuan served as the Chief of the Liberal Democratic Party in 2014 and had his own faction in the Liberal Democratic Party. According to the Liberal Democratic Party, it means that it can basically become the President and Prime Minister of the Liberal Democratic Party after serving as the director of the Democratic Party. At present, the health of Abe's attack is still unclear. If Abe cannot return in the short term, it will inevitably exacerbate the split of the Liberal Democratic Party Abe, as well as the sharp decrease in the sense of influence and influence in the Japanese political circles. This will have a significant impact on the game of power within the Liberal Democratic Party.

In the end, Abe's attack will affect the trend of Japan's internal affairs and diplomacy. Despite the step -down as the Prime Minister, Abe, in view of his influence in Japanese society and his faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, he could have an impact on the formulation of the internal and foreign policies of the government in the field. However, Kishida Wenxiong was born in the Liberal Democratic Party. Before taking office, it was very different from Abe from the conservative forces in terms of constitutional amendment or economic development or diplomacy. Nowadays, Abe is attacked. If he cannot return to politics in the short term, the autonomy of Kishida Wenxiong in internal affairs and diplomacy will be greatly improved, which means that the Kishida government may be excessive from the current influence of Abe's affected by Abe. Capts the United States and transformed into a more independent foreign policy.

(Author is a researcher at Chahar Society)

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