Nancai fast comments: party end, Johnson leaves the field

The British Prime Minister Johnson, who did not trust the vote in the early June party, probably would probably not think that his breathing opportunity was only less than one month. Earlier this month, a major moral scandal broke out in the Conservative Party: Johnson's heart love, and the reservoir deputy party whipping was exposed in a club to perform obscenity of two men. What makes the British even more angry is that Prime Minister Johnson does not only "use people", but knows that his scandal is still "promoted with illness." This scandal gave Johnson (more than 40 % of the members of the party opposed to him), which had already shaken, and the British media said that the Prime Minister who relied on the Brexit cause was already on the edge of the cliff. After the scandal, Johnson's party's opposition resigned one after another to launch a political forced Palace to Johnson: First of all, the high -weight financial minister and the health minister who had a heavy responsibility, and then dozens of senior party and government officials announced the "jumper". Essence In the end, Johnson, who has always refused to resign, announced today.

There are usually three methods for the Prime Minister to launch the party's dismissal: the non -trust voting hosted by the 1922 committee, and all the ministers, the Queen of the Minister, announced that the prime minister's disbelief and the large -scale resignation of the party officials were forced to retire the Prime Minister. The first and third methods of these three methods are more common, especially the third -what is interesting is that Trysa May, who has survived the first method that year, is forced to step down by Johnson led by Johnson. Yes, now Feng Shui turns to Johnson. Although Johnson subsequently supplemented the vacancy of the position, this wave of resignation has completely shaken the legal foundation of Johnson as the Prime Minister: a large -scale resignation shows that Johnson has unable to continue leading a (stable) government Prime Minister's maximum legitimate crisis. In fact, the resignation of these senior officials also saw that Johnson could no longer be able to pass this wave of scandals to start a fatal blow on him, so that he also resigned the palace and resigned. The political measures of resignation forced the palace can actually produce legal consequences in the sense of the constitution. The logic is the following chain: large -scale officials' resignation → stable government no longer exist → Prime Minister's own legitimacy no longer exists → Prime Minister resignation.

Although Johnson himself has always given the outside world a slightly funny and absurd image, no one can deny that he is a master of political operations. In the early years, Johnson, who opposed Brexit, turned to the Brexit camp during the Brexit referendum, and successfully forced the Prime Minister Cameron. Subsequently, when everyone thought that Johnson was about to compete for the Prime Minister, he chose the turtle in the face of the difficult situation of Brexit negotiations and threw the mess to Teresa May. When Trysa May was hard -working and popular, he was about to complete the Brexit negotiations, and he retired from Teresa May to harvest the popularity of the Brexit camp and the results of the Brexit negotiations. The biggest most faction in the past thirty years. Because of this, Johnson has been commented as "a little pig with oil" (always getting rid of the predicament).

However, Johnson, who is good at political operations and elections, is a mess in terms of governance capabilities and personal products: from the failure of the new crown epidemic, to the shortage of material transportation caused by Brexit to the rise in energy shortage, from the "party door" to "renovation door" "Then I was lied to be investigated and reported. The failure of the internal affairs and the crushing of the personal image dragged the Conservative Party in recent years. The occurrence of the Russian -Ukraine's military conflict made Johnson see the opportunity to live in Jedi. He began to high -profile and strong. In the face of any problems and questions, he took the focus of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, and he played the focus of diplomatic cards and Russian threats. However, with the pressure of "Ukrainian fatigue" and high energy prices, "Tingwu Anti -Russia" eventually couldn't help him continue to scandals and be good.

In fact, according to the situation of British politics, Johnson's scandal and political achievements have touched the standards of steps to step down. For a Conservative leader: at least on the surface, the Conservative Party seems to care more about moral ethics. In addition, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has gradually moved towards the protracted, and British energy prices have soared in the near future. Johnson has turned over. In the presence, Johnson faces a more realistic way than the political pressure of the resignation forced the palace. As the 1922 committee has announced that it will not immediately change the rules of "the prime minister's unbelievable voting can only be held once a year", and it will only be held once a year. " The rules are submitted to the new 1922 committee members selected next week. Therefore, the duel support and opposition to Johnson's two -faction battlefield will be the 1922 committee election next week. Once a member of the anti -Johnson led the committee, the rules will be more likely to be modified and once again mention the voting of Johnson's disbelief. Johnson probably foresee that the results of next week will produce a hostile 1922 committee. The subsequent rules will be modified and unwanted to vote. Now that the defeat has been determined, the relatively elegant and decent way of resigning can also save a little bit of the image of the step down.

After Johnson stepped down, it was naturally the election of the Conservative Party leader (if the parliament did not dissolve, the new party leader will also become the next Prime Minister).Of course, before that, the problem of the Prime Minister or Temporary Prime Minister should be solved before: Johnson hopes to stay in office to the new Prime Minister's selection, and the party hopes to leave immediately.Johnson lost his heart in the party.The resignation of Treasury Secretary Su Nak and the newly -served Treasury Secretary Zahawi may be able to compete for the position of party leader and Prime Minister.Former Foreign Minister Hunter, who has competed with Johnson's leader, and many current or former senior ministers (diplomacy, national defense, finance, etc.) are also potential candidates.In addition, Labu, the deputy prime minister of the temporary Prime Minister, has a chance to be eliminated.Once the Conservative Party replaced the new Prime Minister with a good image and even re -re -governing the Labor Party after the re -election of the parliament, the independence of the people of the two places will ease.(The author is a PhD in law from the University of Hamburg, Germany)

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