See clearly

After the unblocking, the streets of Ho Chi Minh City were bustling. A Tao drove a silver Toyota car in the middle of the road.

A small pedal motorcycle passes like a flying fish. Most of the time, you can only see the rider's tight helmets and scarves.

A Tao has been used to this "pot porridge" type of traffic, and continues to drive slowly.

A Tao came to Vietnam by "forced".

In the past 10 years, low -end manufacturing industries such as sneakers have begun to move to Southeast Asia, and Vietnam is the first stop.

Many upstream companies follow the giants to migrate. A Tao chose Vietnam's largest city Ho Chi Minh City to invest in a sports shoe processing plant.

A Tao wanted to return to China. Because of the epidemic, he hadn't returned home for more than three years, and he wanted to go back to see his parents. In addition, in the epidemic, Vietnam's business life is not easy.

But he also wants to stay here, just like many people discuss the development of Vietnam now. He doesn't want to miss the opportunity of Vietnam's economy, and want to make more money.

Many people in China are also eager to try the changes in neighboring countries next door, hoping to do something here. But is it a good business to invest in Vietnam now?

We dated many businessmen living in Vietnam and also visited scholars studying Vietnamese economy. They could not give a clear answer.

But things are also changing. It is reported that Samsung Electronics has transferred some overseas smartphone production lines in Vietnam to Guiwei Factory located in Guiwei Factory, Kitaili City, Gyeongshang, South Korea. [1]

Human cost advantage is fading

The dividend can also maintain three or five years

Before there was no epidemic, A Tao often felt that he had not gone abroad.

The street view of Ho Chi Minh City is very similar to some small southern towns in China. Except for some leftover French buildings, many places have the shadow of China at the beginning of this century. Especially in the new industrial parks, many signboards have Chinese.

The largest factory in Ho Chi Minh City, Pouyuen Vietnam, is exactly the same as that of the daily scenes of the workers' lineup from get off work.

But as soon as he returned to the road of motorcycles, A Tao immediately realized that he was in Vietnam. From the mighty motorcycle army, it can be seen that motorcycles have been impressed by the city of more than 12 million people. The huge roar of the motor often makes people dizzy, and there is everything on the motor lanes.

Because of dependent on sports shoe giants, A Tao felt that it was not difficult to make money in Vietnam. Under the attraction of abundant and cheap young labor, in the past ten years, labor -intensive industries have migrated to Vietnam in succession.

According to data disclosed in May 2021 in the State Administration of Statistics, among the more than 90 million people in Vietnam, the working age population over 15 years old is 51 million. Public data also shows that in 2017, Vietnam's 15-64 -year -old working age population was about 65 million, accounting for 68%. [2 ]

Picture source: Yue Tong News Agency

And the average salary of these labor is less than one -half of China. Earlier, Chinese people who went to Vietnam to do trade business told daily economic news reporters in WeChat that a domestic worker's monthly salary is between 4,000 and 6,000 yuan, and in Vietnam, it only costs 2000-3,000 yuan. A Tao also revealed in the short video that the monthly salary of workers was around 1800-2200 yuan.

The global shoe industry giant Baocheng Group ate Vietnam's first wave of population bonus. There are 6 Yuyuan Industry under Baocheng's Yuyuan Industry in Vietnam. The Baoyuan plant is the largest shoe factory in the Vietnamese plant, with nearly 60,000 people. [3]

Relying on the dividend of population and the opening of taxes to the outside world, Vietnam has quickly become a new manufacturing center for many manufacturing giants. In the transfer of enterprises, the most representative is the consumer electronics assembly factories, textile industries, and Apple supply chains in mainland China.

Among mainland Chinese companies, the most densely invest in the Apple supply chain. Beginning in 2013, manufacturers such as Goer Scholarship, Lixun Precision, Lan Si Technology, and Disai Battery have built factories in Vietnam. [4]

But the advantage of Vietnam's cheap labor is fading year by year. On June 12 this year, Vietnamese Prime Minister Fan Mingzheng announced that from July 1st to raise the minimum wage in the country, the new minimum wage standard increased by 6%compared with the current basis. Enterprises need to understand these policy changes.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, told daily economic news reporters that China itself is a large manufacturing country rather than a manufacturing power. Essence Most of the transfer from China and investing in Vietnam are labor -intensive industries.

Vietnam's demographic dividend may last for several years, but early warning has been issued.

On the one hand, Vietnam's labor costs rose rapidly. Li Tingguang, a member of the Vietnam National Wage Committee, said that from 2016 to 2020, the minimum wage rose 7.4%per year. According to the latest salary standards, Vietnam divides the lowest wages nationwide from high to low into four categories in accordance with the economic development of various places. About 1326 yuan) was raised to 4.68 million Yuenan Shield (about 1404 yuan), an increase of 5.9%. [5]

Li Jin (a pseudonym) is a scholar studying Vietnam's economic and cultural development all year round. In his interview, he made it clear that after many foreign capital poured into Vietnam in recent years, the wages of workers have increased a lot. For areas where the company's labor salary is more sensitive, don't go to Vietnam to invest. Enterprises with investment intentions must be familiar with the local policy environment, especially those who think that Vietnam with cheap labor costs must amend their cognition. On the other hand, compared to China's 1.4 billion yuan in population base, Vietnam has only a volume of 100 million people, and the number of age population will usher in an inflection point.

In 2019, the report written by the Tianfeng Securities Light Industry team after visiting Vietnam on the spot mentioned that because of the low population base, in recent years, wages have increased rapidly and the recruitment is difficult to intensify. Vietnam's labor dividend period is far inferior to China. [6]

According to local media reports, after the unblocking in October 2021, some factories have experienced difficulty in recruiting workers, and Baocheng Group also encountered problems.

But the demographic dividend will not disappear immediately. Bai Ming pointed out that Vietnam's population dividends will disappear faster than China, but currently only one -third of China's GDP per capita GDP will be chased. This dividends can last at least three or five years.

Many motorcycles on the streets of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Photo source: Photo Network-500742978

The supply chain imperfect is a short board

Reading the factory may not take advantage

With the Chinese ride in China, Vietnam has become a music land for foreign investment. According to data released by the General Administration of Statistics of Vietnam on June 29, the total import and export of goods in the first half of this year reached US $ 3711.7 billion, an increase of 16.4%compared with the same period last year. [7]

According to statistics from the Public Investment Bureau of Vietnam's plan to and the Investment Department, as of June 20, 2022, Vietnam's total direct investment in Vietnam exceeded 14.03 billion US dollars, which was equivalent to 91.1%of the same period last year. Foreign investors invest in 18 industries in 21 national economic industries in Vietnam. The processing and manufacturing industry continues to lead, accounting for nearly 63%of the total investment in Vietnam, followed by the real estate operation industry, accounting for 22.5%of the total investment. [8]

Zhang Ling (a pseudonym), who has lived in Vietnam for more than 20 years and is currently the head of a Chinese -owned enterprise Vietnamese branch in China, thinks that this scene seems to have known each other. Prior to the financial crisis in 2008, Vietnam also enjoyed a short and prosperity brought about by foreign investment. Zhang Ling thought of this heart. In his opinion, more than 10 years have passed, and the economic structure of Vietnam has no changes compared to that year. Once the economic growth has stalled, foreign capital must be the earliest one to evacuate.

However, all giants who have smashed heavy gold in Vietnam knew that Vietnam was still "assembly living" at the end of the industrial chain. Imported parts were re -assembled and shipped. Dongguan.

"It is the" Sanlai and One Supplement "(that is, the introduction of materials, assembly, processing and compensation for trade), the same is true of many coastal areas in the beginning of reform and opening up (China)." Bai Ming said that Vietnam currently said that Vietnam currently said that Vietnam currently said that Vietnam currently said that Vietnam currently said that Vietnam currently said that Vietnam said that Vietnam is currently. Economic form, similar to the three electronic information industries in history, whether it is from the United States to Japan, from the United States and Japan to the Four Dragons, and finally to mainland China, the industrial transfer not only depends on the value depression of labor costs, but also considers the time and place of interest For example, it depends on whether the transferor is willing to go, and it is also related to the overall layout and strategy of the world at that time. Why choose Vietnam instead of going to Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia in countries that cost lower than Vietnam? Because of the country's size, industrial foundation and influence.

Ho Chi Minh City City Landscape

Photo source: Photo Network-300854443

Daily Economic News reporters learned that Vietnam's industrial zones are basically concentrated in the field of light industry such as shoes, clothing and electronics. The country's industrial system and industrial chain have not yet been cultivated. Most foreign factories may except that the labor force is Vietnam. People, raw materials and flow lines need to be imported from China and other countries.

According to the statistics of the Vietnam Supporting Industry Association (VASI), by 2021, there will be only more than 300 pure Vietnamese supporting industries in Vietnam to provide parts and components for the Vietnamese factories of multinational companies. At present, nearly 90%of the components of the domestic electronics industry in Vietnam need to be imported.

Therefore, many foreign -funded enterprises focus on investment in northern Vietnam, which is closer to China.

According to the Yuanchuan Research Institute, Hon Hai's inspection in Vietnam was considered the distance from the Chinese supply chain that he gave up the southern part of Vietnam gathered at the time of the Taiwanese businessmen at the time and placed the factory in the north. From Shenzhen Longhua to Beining, the total journey is only 13 hours, and it can be shortened by half from Nanning. [4]

Because of this, China has long been Vietnam's largest importer. Data show that in the first half of 2022, Vietnam's trade surplus was about US $ 710 million, of which US $ 35 billion in trade deficit with China increased by 21.7%year -on -year. [9]

Li Jin told reporters that under the trend of global integration, Vietnam, as a key part of low -end manufacturing, was caused by global division of labor. The supply chain problem has always existed, but it is highlighted in the epidemic.

"No country has such a complete supply chain in China." Bai Ming also mentioned that in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta in China, you may be able to buy a phone call from the shop next to it, but it is unrealistic in Vietnam. And it is impossible for Vietnam to go together in the short term to make up for a complete supply chain, but this problem can speed up solutions between ASEAN integrated regional cooperation. Since the upstream and downstream of Vietnam's manufacturing industry is so short, can Chinese companies that have the advantages of supply chain can consider Vietnam investment?

Li Jin's attitude is decisive: no.

"In May this year, during the visit to the United States, Vietnam Prime Minister Fan Mingzheng met with Apple CEO Cook and asked for more Vietnamese companies into the Apple supply chain in person. This is a signal. The Vietnamese government will definitely support local companies to join the fruit to fruit Link. "Li Jin said that some Chinese companies did not go to Vietnam with giants because China itself has a large -scale market and can make products very low and efficient. If you go to Vietnam to build a factory, the cost may not have an advantage. If there are no giants' orders, invest in overseas more cautiously.

At least in the field of medical devices, there are not many real investment in Southeast Asian countries.

Li Xiting, chairman of Mai Rui Medical, emphasized to the daily economic news reporter that McRine Medical has only one factory in Shenzhen Guangming in the world. Within 100 kilometers of radiation, more than 90%of components can be found. Only Shenzhen can do it.

Li Jianquan, the chairman of the stable medical care, also previously talked about it before 15 years ago that his colleagues moved the factory to Cambodia and Vietnam. Later, because the supply chain could not be established, the supply of production materials could not keep up, and there was no way to do it.

Li Jin does not agree with "weakness" to describe Vietnam's supply chain. In the electronics industry and other fields, Vietnam's supply chain supporting facilities have matured. But in other respects, Vietnam does not want to establish a comprehensive supply chain, but takes time.

In Bai Ming's view, the formation of the supply chain will not be achieved overnight, and it should be stepped forward. Vietnam can start with downstream assembly, and then slowly develop to the upstream expansion of the supply chain. Like China's production of color TVs in 1984, the state criticized 112 production lines, but some of the imaging tubes needed to be imported. Later, the imaging tube could produce itself, and the corresponding parts were needed. This has a process.

For another example, many clothing in China is produced in Bangladesh. Before that, Bangladesh needed to import fabrics in China. Many textile factories, printing and dyeing factories went to the generation to develop. But in terms of time, it takes seven or eight years, and it may be two or three decades.

The Chinese have an advantage to go to Vietnam

The business environment needs to know how much

In the first quarter of 2022, Vietnam's total imports and exports exceeded Shenzhen [10], and many Chinese people expressed surprise. Some people see the similarity between Vietnam and China in national conditions. If you want to go to Vietnam to see investment opportunities, Sichuan guy Han Sheng is one of them.

Before Han Sheng officially went to Vietnam to do business, his cognition of this country mainly came from several movies. He felt that there were backward, and the houses were thatched houses.

In 2019, he came to Hanoi, Vietnam alone. The new to Vietnam refreshed the post -90s cognition.

At that time, he felt fun, and he sent some of Vietnam's daily life scenes on the short video platform. Unexpectedly, domestic fans were very interested after seeing it. Now, Han Sheng is already the "Vietnam" active on Douyin, with more than 400,000 fans.

At that time, domestic Internet celebrities and live broadcasts were in full swing. Although there were many Vietnamese Internet celebrities on YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram in Vietnam, they still made money by advertising. Han Sheng had the idea of ​​entrepreneurship and brought the model of live broadcast to Vietnam.

In the Spring Festival in 2020, the new crown epidemic broke out. After returning to China, Han Sheng did not return to Vietnam. Instead, he found a cooperative brand in many domestic cities. He hoped that Vietnam's live broadcast and cargo would usher in an outbreak. At that time, he built a largest supply chain platform in Vietnam to provide sufficient supply for the anchors. This is the scarce resources of the Vietnamese live platform.

Li Jin said that, like Han Sheng, the Chinese do business in Vietnam, and have an advantage over people and companies in developed countries and even some developed countries. Vietnam is about 20 years slower than China's economic development. For more than 20 years, it is exactly the time for Chinese companies to develop the fastest and economic data. The Chinese have this experience that can clearly judge the economic trends of Vietnam's next, and it is better to have knowledge reserves. At the same time, the system and culture of the two countries are indeed closer. After the Chinese went to Vietnam, many things are easier to understand and easy to get started.

"Is it the joy of investing? Only when you come, you know if you really invest in money. You ca n’t just invest money just looking at beautiful data." Li Jin said that it is because Chinese and Vietnamese people are too similar that people are often easier to ignore. There are different places between the two people, and this difference may make the Chinese very embarrassed. In addition, unlike Chinese thinking methods, Vietnamese are influenced by French culture, and their lifestyles and rhythm are much slower than China.

Vietnam Cathedral

Photo source: Photo Network-500979313

Han Sheng also encountered an interesting thing: a supplier of Shanxi vinegar wanted to find him to bring goods on Tiktok. He said that although the Vietnamese people love to eat sour, they are not jealous when they eat lemon, so the business can't do it at all.

Li Jin feels that many Chinese people have biased their cognition of Vietnam. For Chinese companies, Vietnam's business environment is not good. Vietnam and China have deep roots. On one side, enjoy the dependence on China; on the other side, the people will have jealousy towards China.

In addition, there are some corruption in Vietnamese government officials, and the integrity system and rule of law system of the entire society are also different from China.

In recent years, officials have also consciously reduced China's cultural impact on Vietnam. Zhang Ling can also feel that the Vietnamese people have no trust in Chinese brands, and they are closer to the United States, Japan and South Korea culture. Li Jin gave an example. China ’s very popular electric vehicle is environmentally friendly and cheap, but it cannot be sold in Vietnam. Locals prefer a nearly $ 3,000 Japanese native Honda, which is almost equivalent to a worker's income for more than half a year. Essence

The business environment and political risks are also uncertain factors that need to face overseas investment. Li Jianquan is worried that there will be unknown political risks that day. He still feels that it is better to do a solid enterprise in China, and it doesn't matter if you have expensive labor costs. You can consider automated workshops. As long as companies are willing to invest and innovate in science and technology, they will not have no competitiveness.

Is it a good opportunity to invest now?

In February of this year, the Tiktok shop was open in Vietnam, and Han Sheng returned to Vietnam again to prepare to show his fists.

Under the epidemic, Vietnam's online consumption ushered in explosive growth. According to Yue Tong News Agency, the influence of new crown pneumonia has changed some changes in the consumption habits of Vietnamese people during shopping and payment. Based on this, consumers now prefer to use electronic wallets and bank cards instead of using cash like before. According to data from the National Bank of Vietnam, in the first four months of 2022, the number of non -cash payment transactions increased by 69.7%, the amount increased by 27.5%, and transactions through the Internet also increased by 48.3%and 32.7%, respectively. [11]

Zhang Ling thinks this direction is good. The Chinese are diligent and can endure hardships. In some industries with low thresholds and no need to invest too much research and development, they can quickly establish an advantage, especially the small commodity economy. Essence For those companies that only see the cost of labor and build factories, they are not recommended to invest.

Street construction in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Photo source: Photo Network -307730350

In Bai Ming's view, although there are many Chinese in Vietnam, most people have moved with the industry. Taiwan and American companies have sent experienced employees in mainland China as cadres. After a few years of doing this, after being familiar with the environment, understanding the doorway, and realizing the original accumulation, they came out to run a factory by themselves. But if you have not been to Vietnam and are not familiar with Vietnam, you need to be cautious to invest in Vietnam now.

He mentioned that for enterprises, those with strength can use the tax -free policy brought by the trade agreement of Vietnam and Western countries, and Vietnam's population cost advantage to make strategic layout, but they need to hold the core link in their own hands and do not get out of control.

"Some Chinese companies are too mechanically copying their experience and models to Vietnam and moving a hard set. This way is not possible." Li Jin believes that the relationship between Vietnam and China is a mutual reference and learning. Now that the Vietnamese economy is already taking off or is about to be going The stage of take -off, but for Chinese companies, it is still a big question mark to seize how much opportunity to seize. It is not that it is suitable for Chinese enterprises to invest, nor does it mean that all fields are suitable for Chinese companies.

He also mentioned that it is difficult to summarize which businesses must be suitable for investment. One thing that can be clear is that it has lost investment value in areas where labor wages are more sensitive. The Vietnamese government knows the trend of economic development. In recent years, it has proactively filtered many industries with low added value and impact on the environment. They are more willing to choose industries in high -end fields such as semiconductor, chips, and aviation engines. But unfortunately, most Chinese companies in this field do not have the ability to invest overseas.

For the Internet economy that many young people want to cut in, Vietnam and China are still different.

Li Jin said that in the past few years, China's Internet economy has flourished, and the Vietnamese government will not easily hand over this big cake to foreign companies. He believes that it is difficult for Chinese companies to have a chance to be a purely e -commerce platform in Vietnam. Cross -border e -commerce is a good direction, especially the advantages of corporate accumulated in foreign trade are more obvious.

There are many risks about Chinese companies to go to sea. Li Jin feels that the most important thing is not to follow the trend blindly. If companies and individuals have not enough to know enough about the Vietnamese market, it is best not to touch it. Just like the differences between the two countries, the safe sells well in China, but almost every household in Vietnam has one. They are used to putting some gold at home, so they have to buy a safe.

Vietnam Architectural Landscape Picture Source: Photo Network-500895334

Bai Ming feels that investing in the central and western regions in China is a good direction.

He pointed out that on the one hand in the central and western regions of my country to build a business environment, on the other hand, it must amplify the inherent advantages. For example, the electronics industry in Xi'an, Chongqing, and Chengdu in the west, the solar industry in Anhui in the central region, the construction machinery of Hunan, and the metallurgical steel of Wuhan, etc., also need to find the location in the new development pattern in conjunction with the domestic unified market construction.

At present, the eastern region of my country must move to a higher level, and the labor -intensive industries in the eastern part must "change the cage and change the birds" and transfer it to the central and western parts, which is even more exciting.

Some people think that investing in the Vietnamese stock market is good. Data show that in May this year, the number of new account opening in Vietnam exceeded 470,000, setting the highest historical record, but this is not necessarily a correct choice. According to the "Vietnamese News" report on July 4, in the first half of 2022, the Vietnamese market benchmark index and liquidity dived sharply, and the VN index fell more than 20%, becoming one of the worst stock markets in the world. [12]

It is reported that since the first half of the year, especially since April, due to the lack of strong demand for bottoming, the Vietnamese stock market has fallen sharply, falling below the 1200 -point mark, the VN index plummeted by 20%, and the HNX index fell 41.4%year -on -year. The market value of the stock market has plummeted by more than 12.22 trillion yuan (about 53.3 billion US dollars), of which the market value loss of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange alone is as high as 10.80 trillion. It is reported that more than half of the market value evaporation comes from VN30 shares, especially large banks, real estate and manufacturing companies.

Li Jin believes that it is not recommended not to touch the field of familiar fields.

Reporter's Notes | Want to make money in Vietnam and not be able to move hard to move in China

In the past 20 years, some low -end industries have shifted to Southeast Asian countries and regions. Vietnam is the largest beneficiary country. A Tao is a microcosm of thousands of Chinese people in Vietnam's "gold rush".

As Vietnam's economic data "out of the epidemic", many Chinese have begun to think about. In the cognition of many Chinese people, the current Vietnamese society is like China in the early stages of reform and opening up and the eve of the economy. The road is copied to Vietnam.

However, it is difficult for foreign investment to invest in foreign countries alone. The Vietnamese are influenced by traditional Confucian culture and have many similarity to the Chinese, but they are also affected by Western culture due to the later colonial experience, which makes Vietnamese people different from the Chinese in terms of life and consumption concepts.

Therefore, when we consider investing in Vietnam, remember not to move the Chinese model for hard sets, but also adapt to local conditions. Before we have enough understanding of Vietnam, it is not advisable to follow up blindly, otherwise it is easy to eat dumb or step on the pit.

References References

[1] Samsung confirmed that all production lines will not be turned back to South Korea. The Economic and Commercial Office of the Consulate General of Ho Chi Minh City in Ho Chi Minh City

[2] Chart News: In the first quarter of 2021, 9.1 million Vietnamese workers were influenced by the new crown epidemic. Yuetong News Agency

[3] Vietnam's epidemic situation is severe, and Po Cheng International: Shoe OEM Factory Baocheng International: Do not indulge in the coexistence of viruses in the employee's living area. Interface news

[4] In the next Shenzhen, is Vietnam? New Fortune Magazine Yuanchuan Research Institute // Sina Finance

[5] From July 1st, salary increases! Is Vietnam's artificial artificial cheap? China International Trade Promotion Commission Zhejiang Provincial Committee

[6] Vietnam deeply thinking: the industry is stable, the property market is hustle and bustle. Tianfeng Securities

[7] Vietnam Media: Vietnam's trade surplus in the first half of 2022 reached $ 710 million. Vietnam China Chamber of Commerce

[8] In the first half of 2022, Vietnam attracted more than $ 14 billion in foreign capital. Yuetong News Agency

[9] Vietnam's trade surplus in the first half of 2022 reached $ 710 million. China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone Official Website/Vietnam News Agency

[10] How to view Vietnam exports super Shenzhen? Southeast Asian prosperity complement the advantages of China. Surging news

[11] The growth rate of Vietnam e -commerce in 2022 can reach a record high. Yuetong News Agency

[12] Vietnam became one of the worst stock markets in the world in the first half of 2022. The Economic and Commerce Department of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in Vietnam Socialist Republic Embassy

Reporter | Jin Yan

Edit | Yi Qijiang

Video | Tobu

Capture | Yi Qijiang

Daily Economic News

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