Affected by the situation in Ukraine in May in May, Germany's first trade deficit has been in the first 30 years

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 6th. Data released by the German Federal Statistics Bureau on the 4th shows that after the adjustment of working days and seasonal changes, Germany's exports in May have shrunk by 0.5%month -on -month, the import volume rose 2.7%month -on -month, and the trade deficit was 1 billion euros. Essence

According to some Western financial media, due to the surge in Ukraine's situation and imported oil and gas prices, the first trade deficit for more than 30 years in Germany in May.

Began to be sluggish

Compared with the same period last year, Germany's exports increased by 11.7%in May, and imports increased by 27.8%. But from the month -on -month data, the export volume has fallen three times in the first five months of this year.

According to the Wall Street Journal, this is the first time since the second year of 1991 and the second year after Germany's unity, Germany's single monthly import volume exceeded the export value, highlighting the influence of Ukraine's situation on this largest economy in Europe.

Since Russia launched special military operations on Ukraine in February this year, energy prices soared to break the balance of trade in Germany, leading to a significant increase in import costs in Germany from Russia and other energy supply countries. Prior to this, more than 50%of natural gas in the German market came from Russia.

Some economic analysts expect that the German trade deficit will expand in June, because Russia's supply of natural gas on Germany will decrease by 60%, forcing German importers to purchase alternative products from the spot market at a higher price.

At the same time, Germany's exports to Russia have decreased sharply due to Western sanctions against Russia. Russia has been an important market for German manufacturers for many years. But in May this year, Germany's exports to Russia decreased by more than 50%year -on -year. In the first five months of this year, Germany's imports from Russia increased by 54.5%year -on -year, and exports to Russia fell 29.8%.

"Exit downturn has begun," said Forest Treyl, director of foreign trade affairs at the German Business Conference, said, "Exporters are increasingly unable to pass the cost of supply chain to international customers."

This is a consumption oil shelf shot in a supermarket in a supermarket in Berlin, Germany on March 26. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Shan Yuqi

Bleak

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that dependence on exports and manufacturing has become the weakness of the German economy. Every four jobs in Germany depend on exports.

Oliver Latao, chief German economic analyst at Oxford Economic Research Institute of the British Think Tank, said the latest macro data show that the German economy depends on external needs and external supply of raw materials, energy and intermediate products.

With the slowdown of the global economy, concerns about the decline of the United States and Europe have also intensified, and the outlook for exports seems to be dim. A German manufacturer's survey released on the 1st of this month showed that the fourth consecutive month of export orders in Germany decreased for the fourth consecutive month.

Some analysts warn that if Russia continues to decrease or even stop natural gas supply, Germany may have to implement natural gas distribution, and the overall economic situation will be even more severe.

Asamama Fahimi, chairman of the German Trade Union Federation, said in an interview with the Sunday Photo News a few days ago, "Due to the bottleneck of natural gas, all industries are facing the danger of collapse that have never been used to." The important upstream industries of the automotive industry will be affected. "This collapse may have very serious consequences to the overall economy and employment situation in Germany." (Hu Ruoyu)

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