Nancai quick comment: It's time to cancel the "Trump Tariff"

The American people have been struggling with the former President Trump's "tariffs on the United States" for four years.

On July 6, four years ago, the United States imposed a 25%tariff on US $ 34 billion in Chinese imports, and then expanded the scale of taxation targets to $ 50 billion. Since then, the situation has been upgraded, and the two parties levy high new tariffs on each other exports. In September 2018, the United States levied 10%of tariffs on goods imported from China worth $ 200 billion. In response to these measures, China imposed a 25%tariff on US $ 50 billion in export products in China, and later levied 5%to 10%of the US export products of about $ 60 billion in US $ 60 billion. On May 10, 2019, the U.S. government raised 10%of the tariffs of the previous stage to 25%. The US trade representative issued a statement on the same day to report that it intends to impose a 25%tariff on all the remaining US products imported from China. About 300 billion U.S. dollars. On May 13, 2019, China responded that it would raise tariffs and impose 25%tariffs on most of its products on the list of $ 60 billion from June 1, 2019. In January 2020, the two parties reached the first stage of trade agreement, and the agreement expired at the end of 2021. The Biden government has basically continued the policy tendency of strategic competition in China.

After four years, China's industrial and economic and trade systems have basically adapted to the impact of US tariffs. The Trump administration's attempt to achieve compression of China ’s trade with China, especially China’ s trade surplus to the United States. In 2021, the total import and export of China and the United States was US $ 755.6 billion, an increase of 29.5%compared with the previous impact of the trade war. Among them, China imported US $ 179.5 billion from the United States, an increase of 16.6%over 2017; the export of US $ 576.1 billion in the United States increased by 34.1%; the trade surplus to the United States was 396.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 43.8%.

Many economic analysis pointed out that the "big stick" of tariffs on China's tariffs on China is mainly hit by the United States.

First of all, the additional tariffs increased the cost of American manufacturers. Studies have shown that the increase in tariffs to be transformed into higher prices paid by importers in the United States, resulting in an increase in costs of American companies, increasing at least one percentage points of US producer price index (PPI). Tariffs disrupted the supply chain of American companies.

Secondly, the price increase brought by tariffs has also been transmitted to American consumers. For example, some studies have shown that the affordable tariffs imposed on washing machines in 2018 were completely passed on to American consumers at the retail brand level. It is also estimated that the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods may cause typical American families to lose 300 to 800 US dollars per year, which is equivalent to 1/3 of the tax reduction amount obtained by the tax system in 2017 in this income range in 2017. Between 9/10.

Finally, the additional tariffs also had a negative impact on the employment of the United States. Due to the increase in the output and employment of domestic enterprises that are not protected by tariffs from foreign competition, it is estimated that the impact of tariffs on employment must also consider these new employment opportunities at the same time, as well as employment opportunities lost due to revenge. An estimate of a tax on washing system is estimated that due to the guarantee measures for washing machines, the United States has created about 1,800 jobs, but after deducting the tariffs charged, the average cost of each job to consumers is $ 815,000. Another study pointed out that the steel and aluminum tariff plus 25%of the tariffs imposed on the top three stages of China may create 127,000 employment opportunities within 3 years, but due to retaliated tariffs and other costs, 1.061 million workers lost their losses. Work.

Since the beginning of this year, the prices of commodities related to the Ukrainian crisis have fluctuated in the Ukrainian crisis, which has exacerbated the difficulty of the US economy. In May, the US Consumption Price Index rose 8.6%year -on -year, and continued to refresh the highest record in 40 years. Curbing inflation has become the most important issue faced by the Biden government. The Biden government has repeatedly adjusted the statement of tariffs on China. In March, the United States has excluded 352 Chinese products such as clothing and the United States in the United States. Beyond the scope of tariffs, the Bayeng government also issued a signal many times to consider the "first wave" that expires on July 6, and the expiration of August 23 expires. The "second wave" (value of about 16 billion U.S. dollars) tariffs "significantly adjusted" tariffs. There is no action, probably due to the factors of the midterm elections. However, inflation or stagflation can cause some votes, and it may be lost. Adjustment is probably imperative. Of course, US trade representative Dai Qi claims that tariffs are an important weapon to negotiate with China, and she "will not let go of the weapon" as a negotiating party. However, persistence, there is nothing to do.

(The author is a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

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