Relax tariffs on China?Biden "is determined to make this"

Wen | Qi Qian

This article is reproduced from the WeChat public account "Observer Network" (ID: guanchacn). The original first was released on July 4, 2022. The original title was "Bayon's concession? ", Does not mean looking at the view of the think tank.

On the occasion of the US economic situation, senior officials of Biden government financial entrances frequently released signals to relax tariffs on China. On the day of American Independence (July 4), the Wall Street Journal quoted sources saying that after several weeks of balance and discussion, it is expected that Biden will soon decide to cancel some tariffs on Chinese goods. Zhou announced.

At present, there are serious differences in whether to relax the tariffs on China in the inside and outside of the Biden government. On the one hand, senior officials represented by US trade representative Dai Qi and White House Guoan consultant Sha Liwen advocated that tariffs on China are "valuable chips" for China to concessions; economy.

The Wall Street Journal states that the measures that the Biden government may take include: reduce consumer goods tariffs (clothing, learning supplies, etc.) and start a framework that allows importers to apply for tariff exemption.

"Wall Street Journal": Bynden government wants to relieve inflation and keep it tough to China

People familiar with the matter revealed that in recent weeks, Biden has been weighing this decision to study whether and how to adjust the tariffs on some of the goods implemented by the former President Trump to China. The US media has previously reported that the White House national security and economic assistants are completing the review of US tariff policies and made suggestions to the president.

When asked about "whether to relax the tariff on China" on June 18, Biden, who was on vacation in Tellahua, said that he was "determined to be determined."

The Wall Street Journal states that the US Trade Representative Office is conducting a four -year compulsory review of Trump's tariffs on Trump. The review period for enterprises and other institutions that benefit from tariffs will end on July 5, which will give the government an opportunity to adjust the tariff policy.

U.S. government officials and trade experts have noticed that Biden's announcement of cutting tariffs has been postponed, which reflects that there are serious differences in the internal government of Biden's government on tariffs on China. At the same time, Biden was also put on pressure from external forces such as enterprises, workers, and members of parliament.

因此，《华尔街日报》预计，为了缓解通胀问题的同时维持对华经济压力，拜登政府接下来可能采取的措施包括：降低消费品关税并启动允许进口商申请关税豁免的框架，同时提高工业机械和Tariffs of strategic items such as transportation equipment. In addition, the US Trade Representative Office may focus on China's industrial subsidies for high -tech products.

Within the Biden government, the Minister of Finance Yelun is undoubtedly advocating the "reduction of tariffs on China." As early as in early June, Yellen publicly stated that the Bayeng government was considering adjusting the tariffs imposed by the former President Trump on Chinese goods to alleviate the current high -level inflation of the United States for decades. On June 19, Yellen reiterated the statement and said that some tariffs on China had "no strategic significance" during the Trump period.

The US trade representative Dai Qi and the White House Guoan consultant, Shali, stood on the opposite position. They believed that tariffs were useful for the United States when dealing with Sino -US relations. At a meeting of the Senate Group on June 22, Daiqi claimed that "in my opinion, Chinese tariffs are an important bargaining chip. As a representative of trade negotiations, I will never give up the chips."

"From the perspective of domestic political perspective, the Bayeng government faces two very strong and contradictory concerns: on the one hand to fight inflation; on the other hand, it must also show a very firmness against China." Claire Reade said that for the Bayeng government, "the problem is how to incorporate these different concerns into a policy."

At the same time, US trade and economic experts cannot maintain a consistent attitude on this issue.

Yellen said that some of the Trump periods were "no strategic significance" on Chinese tariffs, and video screenshots

Some economists believe that reducing tariffs on China is unlikely to have a great impact on alleviating inflation. Megan Hogan and Wang Yilin (transliterated, Yilin Wang), an analyst at the Institute of International Economic Research Institute of the US Think Tank Peter Sen International Economic Research Institute, estimated that the tariffs imposed on imported goods in China may initially reduce inflation by 0.26 percentage points. Reduce the price increase to compete with imported products ", and eventually drops 1 percentage point.

The opposite opinion believes that it is important to reduce the tariff on consumer goods in China, which can indicate the serious attitude of the Biden government against inflation. This is also a President as a "available minority policy choice".

In response to the US trade war in China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian made it clear on May 11 that the essence of Sino -US economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win -win, and there is no winner in the trade war and customs warfare. U.S. unilateral plus tariffs is not conducive to China, is not conducive to the United States, and it is not conducive to the world. On June 23, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, Shu Jingsing, said that under the current high inflation situation, the early cancellation of tariffs on China and Canada can benefit from American consumers and companies.

At present, the United States is facing the highest inflation situation in 40 years. Data from the US Department of Labor on June 10 showed that the US CPI rose by 1%month -on -month and 8.6%year -on -year. The year -on -year increase in the US CPI hit the largest value since December 1981.

In the mid -November election, more and more Americans were unable to endure, and they have accused the Bayeon government of poor response on inflation and price issues. The latest data from a number of polls showed that Biden's support rate dropped to less than 40%, a new low. At a Capitolic hearing held on June 22, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell changed the diameter of the past, admitting that after the Federal Reserve's historic interest rate hike, the US economy may decline, and it wants to achieve soft landing. " "". The Wall Street Journal said: "This is the most clear signal issued by Powell on the US economy."

On July 1, local time, the U.S. Federal Reserve's GDPNOW forecast model updated the latest economic forecast. It is expected that the US GDP in the second quarter or shrinks 2.1%, which is further repaired by -1%from the previous day. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter of the United States was -1.6%. If it continues to shrink in the second quarter, it means that the US economy may fall into a technological recession.

Research Institution Datatrek Research co -founder Nicholas Colas pointed out in the report that the long -term tracking records of the above models are good. Since the first operation of the Atlanta Fed in 2011, the average error of the forecast is only 0.3 percentage points, such as not In the new crown epidemic period, from 2011 to 2019, the average error of the model was zero. He said: "The closer to the release date of the initial value of the GDP in the second quarter, the more accurate the prediction of the model."

Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNOW predicts that the US GDP in the second quarter may shrink 2.1%

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