Chen Bing: The American Independence Day shooting incident,  "hit" Biden

Straight News: Mr. Chen, Liu He talked with the US Treasury Secretary today (5th). The US media also revealed that the Bayeng government will cancel some tariffs on China this week. Will China -US relations improve?

Special commentator Chen Bing: The United States has canceled some tariffs on China, and it has been noisy for a long time. Now it is time to decide. The period for the additional tariffs before July 7 was arrived. First of all, we must see clearly that this time the United States decided to cancel some tariffs, mainly to save ourselves, not necessarily that Sino -US relations will improve, although some American scholars and business people call on Sino -US relations to ease, and then be nervous. Too much damage with consumers. It is said that the cancellation of tariffs on China and Canada is the United States to save themselves because the U.S. inflation rate is too high, and the public is becoming more and more dissatisfied with the government. Tariffs on China are said to push the high inflation rate by 1 to 2 percentage points. Or cancel tariffs. But how is it partially canceled or all canceled, whether it is directly canceled or an application for tariff exemption. There are great differences within the government of Biden, so the final result is delayed.

I estimate that the United States may adopt part of the cancellation strategy, mainly daily consumer goods, and reserve some valves related to science and technology and security, so that enterprises can increase imports through tariff exemption applications. There is a data here. In the first five months of this year, although the Chinese economy was affected by the suspension of the epidemic, China's exports to the United States still increased by 15.1%. It can be seen that the US market demand is strong. If the United States reduces taxes, then American consumers can purchase Chinese products at a lower price, which will reduce the inflation rate accordingly. The Bayeng government can significantly reduce inflation, and in the mid -term elections in November, some parliamentary seats were lost. Therefore, the US reduction of tariffs is both a rescue of American consumers and a political life of saving the Democratic Party.

As for Sino -US relations, if Biden announced the cancellation of some tariffs on China, it will marked that he has made the first major policy transformation between the trade relations of the two major economic powers in the world, and both China and the United States are happy. But this is just a small step. It is necessary to ease the nervousness of China and the United States, and it is necessary to do more. In particular, the United States must adjust the "Indo -Pacific Strategy", and it cannot be pulled up to block China in economic and security.

Straight News: A shooting occurred on the day of independence on the United States. Biden expressed his grief and shock. Do you think this will affect Biden's people's hope?

Special commentator Chen Bing: American Independence Day is the National Day of the United States. A shooting incident on such an important day is sad and shocking. Don't say that the president of the United States, even those of us distant oriental will feel sad. Whether it is gun killing or in other ways, the killer is great. Of course, the gunfire of Independence Day is particularly fried for Americans, which may think of a lot of distressing things, such as the repetition of the new crown epidemic, the gun killing case caused by racism, the soaring inflation, the dissatisfaction with Ukrainian assistance, and the dissatisfaction with Ukraine. Economic recession is unsatisfactory, and so on. These will make Americans think of their own government, think of President Biden, and then use votes to express their opinions. According to the analysis of the election psychology, a major event of major festivals, if it is positive, may remind people of many good things and add points to the governors; on the contrary, if it is a bad thing, it will be more likely to arouse the dissatisfaction of voters. A series of bad things will be more bad. I will remember in my heart, trying to drive down the administrative person.

After the shooting, Biden delivered a speech on an independent day, saying that freedom was both in the United States and "attacked" abroad. The United States must defend democracy and freedom. Well, American netizens said that the United States has the freedom of shooting and killing, the freedom of encouraging the war of other countries, and the freedom of the rise in oil prices. Boil it for skewers. From the perspective of polls, Biden's support rate remained at a level of 39%, which was almost the lowest level in his tenure, which was a sharp decline in the 59%decline last year. Only 14%of the respondents believe that the United States under the leadership of Biden is moving towards the "correct direction." In the Democratic Party, there are quite a lot of parliament members that Biden is not suitable for the Democratic Party to participate in the next election. Perhaps as American historians said two days ago, Biden tried to convey good news, but they did not succeed at all. So suddenly, Biden lost people's goodwill. In less than half a year, the mid -term elections in the United States will decide to Bayon's political life. If you lose your face, you will not only become a lame president, but also wear a "first president" hat.

Author 丨 Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV "Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"

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