New crisis!Ukrainian granary burst, and there is nowhere to storage to cause summer grain to be abandoned

[Global Times special reporter Wu Duok Xiao Wanning Global Times reporter Yang Shasha] The Turkish customs has recently detained a Russian cargo ship allegedly "grain that may carry out of Ukraine" and continues to ferment. The incident allowed global eyes to focus on the current situation of Ukraine. At present, Ukraine farmers are busy with summer harvest. Affected by the continued months of Russia -Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's grain is facing a new situation. The export channels are not smooth and there are factors such as insufficient storage space, which will affect the harvest of summer grain. Some analysts said that if the Grain Domino has been pushed down in Ukraine, it will be involved in the sowing of food in Ukraine this year, and even the annual grain harvest, which will affect global food supply. How about the harvest of Ukrainian summer grains this year? What difficulties are facing? Will the future affect food importing countries such as China? The Global Times reporter conducted an interview and investigation for this.

On June 9, 2022, a warehouse in Ukraine Nichev. Picture source: IC Photo

Wu Farmers: At least this year can be guaranteed to operate

In the northern Ukrainian city of Chelnigov, the 43 -year -old local farmer Kokna let the reporter of the Global Times see his scene in the local farmland through a mobile video. "The war of spring has destroyed my livestock breeding industry. This year's summer harvest is mainly 5 hectares of land in the busy hands, planting corn, wheat and potatoes."

On the other side of the video, Kirkner raised the wheat ear, who had just harvested from the ground, and said that although the field was severely destroyed, the wheat planted by himself still brought himself a good harvest through good weather. If the transport vehicle arranged by the exporter can reach its own farmland on schedule in the past two weeks, and smoothly export crops to Poland or Romania, they can at least keep their capital this year.

Ukraine has four agricultural ecological areas, namely the central wheat area, the northern wheat production area, the East Kalbashan area, and the southern wheat corn production area. The north is mainly growing beer, rye, linen, and the production of meat and dairy farms, which has a meager profit. The southern land is fertile and close to the port, mainly planting drought -resistant crops. However, due to the small precipitation, the irrigation system is required, and the cost per hectare must be at least 1,000 US dollars.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine on June 15, the continuous Russian -Ukraine conflict that continues to make about 2.4 million hectares of crops in Ukraine cannot be harvested, and the value is estimated to be 1.435 billion US dollars. Ukraine officials said that the country's agricultural sector has suffered nearly $ 4.3 billion in losses.

Kirkner was not surprised when he heard the series of data provided by the Global Times reporter to him. "My relatives and friends, the local farmers who live in the villages and towns next door are the same as my situation. Everyone is still harvested the crops in the field subconsciously, but the warehouses in the village are not enough. , Or simply abandon the farm, let the sun and rain pour. "

Kirkina told reporters that if the underwriter cannot arrange vehicle transportation in the past two weeks, his farm will not work in this winter and can only sell it cheaply. In order not to see this day, he shared the cost of losing money with several farmers around him. As long as the underwriter can transport all the grains such as wheat, the total price can be sold at the original 70 %.

25 million tons of remaining food

Russia and Ukraine conflict fire, once hit 6 important granary in Ukraine in April this year. In early June, Ukrainian President Zelei Sky warned that Russia's blockade of Ukraine was currently blocked, which caused 20 million tons of grain to be unable to export. By the autumn, food stuck in the port may increase to 70 million to 75 million tons.

Before the Russian -Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's food storage capacity was 57 million to 58 million tons. The Russian -Ukraine conflict caused Ukraine to lose 13 million tons of warehousing capacity. In addition, the 25 million tons of grain harvest in 2021 is currently almost full of & corn in Ukraine. Although most of the granary is located in the central and western regions, the railway and land transportation lines are damaged seriously. At present, 65%-70%of agricultural products in Ukraine are exported through sea transportation. Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine had more than 7 million tons of food exported through ports per month, and now the conflict has led to Ukraine's portless port available. Although Ukraine has continuously increased railway capacity and plans to increase to 1.5 million tons per month, this capacity is undoubtedly "cup of water" in front of 25 million tons of grain. These remaining grains cannot be quickly shipped through the port, which means that Wu Grain will be "nowhere to place" in 2022.

Ogan, a local who is engaged in the import and export business of agricultural products in western Ukraine City, told the Global Times reporter that he believes that all Ukrainian grain depots are now filled. The exports of large -scale agricultural products have become extremely low.

As for media reports, Poland and Ukraine are planning to build more new granaries. Ogen smiled bitterly that in addition to building a time, such border granary risks are too high.

For local farmers, if the import and export trade of agricultural products cannot be advanced, the next step is to worry about how to buy autumn grain seeds and fertilizers. After the Russian and Ukraine conflict, Ukraine Hermuson, as the "strategic place" on the verge of the Black Sea and the Asia Sea, was seriously affected by agriculture. The New York Times quoted a Hulson farmer as saying that 1500 tons of grains and 1,000 tons of corn in his farm. Another farmer, Marina Coriesic, said: "The high price of fertilizers, the difficulty added gasoline, and the mines in the land make this year the most difficult time for Ukrainian farmers." Ukraine KSE Agricultural Center said that Ukraine is replacing corn with soybeans because corn does not need a large amount of fertilizer. The price of Ukraine gasoline has already soared from 30 Griffina (about 6.9 yuan) before the conflict to 58 Griffina, and it is difficult to buy it. This means that the output of Ukraine wheat and sunflowers will face serious challenges, and the sowing and gains of autumn grains are in an unknown state.

Whether it affects China

In this case, it is generally expected that the output of grain and oil in Ukraine in 2022 will be greatly reduced. According to the prediction of the Ukraine Institute of Agricultural Economics, Ukrainian wheat output is expected to be 20 million tons in 2022, a year -on -year reduction of 37.5%; corn output is expected to be 30 million tons, a 23%reduction of output from the same period last year; sunflowers are 10.5 million tons, a 36%reduction of production than last year.

As a "European granary", can Ukraine's supply gap in global grain territory be made up by other regions? The Wall Street Journal states that Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 1/3 of global wheat supply. The EU's wheat harvest in the World Wheat Main EU may be disappointing this year, helping to fill the hopes of global food gaps caused by conflict, thereby becoming slim. Analysts predict that the output of grain such as the United States is expected to be better than expected and may make up for the shortcomings.

China is the most important corn and sunflower oil exporter in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Institute of Agricultural Economic Research reported that at the end of 2021, Ukraine exported 50.8 million tons of grain, and China was the main buyer of Ukraine. According to data from the Global Times reporter from the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported about $ 3.2 billion of grains from Ukraine in 2021. Another market data shows that Ukraine exports to China after the United States and Brazil last year, ranking third in the country of food imports in China.

Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst of Dongfang Aig Agricultural Consultation Co., Ltd., told the Global Times reporter that Ukraine's grain, including summer grains, cannot export, and should have little impact on China. In fact, China has increased food imports in recent years. At present, the inventory of corn is at the apex, which is enough to meet domestic needs. In the long run, food supply and demand is also dominated by the market. Ukraine's gap in the world's grain territory will gradually be replaced by large food powers such as the United States, Canada.

"For China, the most important thing is to increase investment in domestic agricultural." Ma Wenfeng said that if China's agricultural science and technology level reaches world -class, on the basis of the existing sowing area, Chinese grain and oil production will increase significantly. There is still much room for improvement in production potential.

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