Britain unilaterally modify the Northern Ai protocol, and the United Kingdom will become a "split kingdom"?

Recently, the United Kingdom unilaterally promoted the amendment to the "Northern Ireland Protocol" series of actions, and once again irritated the European Union. On June 27, the lower house of the British Parliament supported 295 votes for 221 votes to support the Minister of Foreign Affairs Tris, which was unilaterally modified the "Northern Ireland Protocol" two weeks ago.

In the words of BBC, the British government overthrows some of the contents of the Brexit agreement in 2020, and has crossed the first obstacle of the parliament. At present, the bill has entered a ryle review stage, and its subsequent progress and passage have been covered with uncertain shadows for the future relationship between Britain and the European Union.

Russia and Ukraine's conflict, "constitutional crisis" to the "insignificant" modification

British Prime Minister Johnson claimed that he had revised "relatively insignificant", and the British Cabinet Minister also insisted that the move did not violate international law. However, from the main content of the proposal, the British's modification of the original proposed book is not great: the "unnecessary" documents and costs of "unnecessary" in the British company transaction can be eliminated; Sales its products; ensure that North Ireland can enjoy the same tax reduction and expenditure policies as other parts of the United Kingdom; to resolve disputes through independent arbitration instead of European courts.

British Prime Minister Johnson Xinhua News Agency (British Prime Minister's Palace Supply)

In this regard, not only did the EU strong opposition, saying that the unilateral behavior of Britain was damaging bilateral mutual trust, and was ready to file a legal lawsuit, even the British politics had dissatisfaction. Needless to say, the Opposition Labor Party has to say that former British Prime Minister Treesa May, who is also a Conservative Party member, also believes that the amendment of the decision "violates international law". After all, she has experienced the arduous Brexit negotiations with the European Union. Knowing that it is not easy to reach this fragile Brexit agreement.

For the Johnson government, they may not be willing to trouble themselves: Johnson took over Mei, and originally shouldered the mission to reach the Brexit agreement. Essence However, in the face of the actual economic and trade situation after the agreement took effect, the domestic opposition, especially the changes in the situation in Northern Ireland, the Johnson government unilaterally "regret" is the key to solving the problem.

Originally, the "Northern Ireland Protocol" was reached to avoid the "hard boundary" between the British northern love region and the EU member of Ireland. It stipulates that Northern Ireland stays in the European Single Market and the EU tariff alliance and continues to implement the EU rules. At the same time, the "hard boundaries" control of the British and EU de facto "hard boundaries" controlled to the British islands and Northern Ireland, that is, Britain.

This means that some of the products from Greater Britain to Northern Ireland are no longer unobstructed, but they need to accept customs and border security inspections similar to cross -border cross -border cross -border. The inconvenience of logistics between the two places was quickly transformed into an impact on the daily economic life of the northern love people. Since last year, due to the cumbersome customs declaration, many daily consumer products from Great Britain cannot appear on the local supermarket shelves in Northern Ireland, which has brought many inconvenience to local residents' daily life.

In July last year, the six major British retailers of Yueshi, Asda, Senbaoli, Cooperative Group, "Iceland", and Marta's sixth British retailers jointly wrote to the British government and the European Commission, warning that if the linked letter continued, the two places between the two places, the two places Border control will increase the operating costs of retailers, leading to rising local consumer goods prices in Northern Ireland. More than 75%of the goods supply in the North Ireland daily commodity market comes from these six retailers.

The European Union and the United Kingdom have taken temporary measures to alleviate possible crises. For example, in June last year, the two parties agreed to extend the width period of the frozen meat customs from Greater Britain for three months. But temporary measures cannot fundamentally solve the problem. With the expansion and continuity of the Russian -Ukraine conflict this year, the British Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 9.1%year -on -year in May this year, reaching a new high.

In Northern Ireland, the external crisis and the "Northern Ireland Protocol" jointly promoted inflation together, which seriously crack down on the consumer confidence of the local people: Danish Dandask Bank survey shows that due to the surge in living costs, more than 40%of the first quarter of this year exceeded 40%of this year. The people of Bei Ai believe that the economic situation in the coming year will deteriorate.

What has a headache for the Johnson government than the economic impact is the local political difficulties caused by the "Northern Ireland Protocol", which is also the direct reason that prompted the British government to take unilateral action.

In the British elections in May this year, the Conservative Party suffered a tragic defeat, and Northern Ireland also appeared in Northern Ireland to "change the sky" for a century. It advocated that the New Fen Party, which has been separated from the United Kingdom and established a unified and coexistence with Ireland to become the largest party in the Northern Ireland parliament. According to the current power sharing and negotiation political system in Northern Ireland, Michel O'Neal, vice chairman of the party, is eligible to be nominated as the chief minister of Northern Ireland, and has become the first regional leader in the history of the "Republican/Independent".

However, the second largest party of the parliament, also the leading force of the "Banner/United School" (advocating North Ireland in the United Kingdom), the region -the Democratic Unification Party holds a very tough "Leave British" position and resolutely oppose any possibility of any possibility Policies that weaken the connection between North Ireland and other parts of the United Kingdom, especially the "Northern Ireland Protocol" to set up a "hard boundary" between the two places.

As a result, the Democratic Unified Party used the requirements of the North Ai area of ​​power sharing rules to "threat" the British government amended the agreement. At present, the party is using the rules to resist the convening of the new parliament in Northern Ireland, and refuses to participate in the United Government, making the new government unable to form, which has caused a rare "constitutional crisis" in the region. Originally, due to the consideration of economic issues, the Johnson government intends to modify the "Northern Ireland Protocol", simplifying the customs clearance procedures between the North Ai region and the Britain, and the current political deadlock in Northern Ireland. first step.

Can modify the promise of Bei Ai to calm down, or exacerbate the centrifugal power of the "United Kingdom"?

In the "United Kingdom", Northern Ireland is undoubtedly the most sensitive area and a potential gunpowder barrel. If you ask what impact on Brexit referendum in 2016, it is undoubtedly the most direct one to enlarge the structural contradiction in Northern Ireland.

The problem of northern love has a long history, and its key lies in the status and ownership of North Ireland. Britain has ruled Ireland for centuries. The British ruler who believed in the new religion oppressed and exploited the Irish of Catholicism, causing the latter to continue to resist. In 1949, the United Kingdom acknowledged that the 26 county in southern Ireland was completely independent and became the Republic of Ireland today. The six counties in the north where the new religious population lives under the British rule and become the British northern love area.

Due to the historical contradiction between Catholics and Protestants, Republican/Independent and Banners/Joint Schools, Northern Ireland has been in turmoil for a long time since the late 1960 nation. The "Bloody Sunday" tragedy in 1972 pushed the hostile emotions to the extreme. The 30 -year -old bloody conflict caused a tragedy of 3,532 deaths and more than 4,7500 injuries.

Until 1998, under the auspices of the then U.S. President Northern Ireland George Mitchell, the British government, the Irish government, and the Northern Ireland parties signed the Bellster Agreement with peaceful negotiations and signed the Bellster Agreement to start from chaos.

The Bellster Agreement clarifies the autonomy currently in the scope of sovereignty in the British (but at the same time the Northern Ai people have the right to decide to stay in the future), and the institutional arrangements of the two -factions multi -party governance, especially the handling of English love The institutional framework of relations and North -South Ireland relations is an important milestone in Northern Ireland peace processes and normalization.

In the 20 years after the agreement came into effect, Britain and Love were members of the European Union, and the two countries had established a common travel area before joining the EU to ensure the opening of the border between the North Ai area and the Republic of Ireland. flow. The contradiction between the two factions of "British" and "Leave the English" has been relieved to a certain extent, which provides a guarantee for the Peace and Peace process.

However, this still cannot eradicate the contradictions and opposition between the Northern Ireland Republican and the Banners. After all, the two hold the opposite position on the status and ownership issues of North Ireland. The proportion of the population of supporting "maintaining the status quo" and "get rid of love" remains more than 50 % and less than 40 %, respectively. No one can occupy the absolute dominance and overwhelm each other.

After 2016, with the fact that Brexit has changed from emotional vent to the inevitable fact, the position of the two factions and the contradiction between religious beliefs have been further intensified.

In 2016, nearly 56%of the northern love people opposed Brexit. In the post -Brexit era, if there is no additional institutional arrangement, there will be a "hard boundary" between Northern Ireland and Ireland. This is not only unacceptable to the tough republican, but even most northern love ordinary people are unacceptable emotionally.

Britain and Europe know how much trouble this issue may bring, so the two sides have reached the "Northern Ireland Protocol" after twists and turns. However, this protocol does not seem to alleviate the contradiction: in other parts of the UK, the opponents believe that the agreement violates Britain's complete sovereignty and unified market and destroys the bottom line. In Northern Ireland The connection between North and South Ireland was even more worried that the obstacles between Northern Ireland and Britain had weakened the connection between the two places.

As for the republic represented by the Xinfen Party, they will not be more pro -English than before Brexit, but if they modify the agreement one by one, cause any traffic obstacles between the North and South Ireland, they will strengthen their " The motivation and desire of getting rid of love ". It can be said that the launch of the "Northern Ireland Protocol" has hardly played a role in calming and alleviating domestic contradictions.

Because of this, the Johnson government does not have the motivation to maintain this fragile compromise result, but has threatened to use the "Northern Ireland Protocol" in the past two years in the past two years. With the EU in disputes such as vaccine distribution. Today, the Johnson government has taken this adventure under various pressures, which will not only further offend the republics of the Bei Ai area, but also face the EU's countermeasures and intensify British and European frictions. Self -loss international image.

In addition to the predictable social tear in the Bei Ai area and the twists and turns of the bilateral relations between London and Brussels, the Johnson government needs to consider it carefully whether the existing system of the "United Kingdom" will be fundamentally impacted.

When the dispute between the "North Irish Protocol" was revised, the chief minister of Scottish Northern Northern Sides officially announced on June 28 that the local government of Scotland plans to hold a second second time on October 19, 2023. Independent referendum. At this time, Sterkin's voice was obviously aimed at the changes in political territory in various regions of the United Kingdom after the local elections, and the new wind direction driven by the latest dynamic of Bei Ai Lang. Compared with the first independent referendum in Scotland in 2014, if the second referendum next year is held as scheduled, the results are likely to be very different: before the 2014 referendum, the European Union stated that it would not accept independent Scotland as a member state, and then Britain The Brexit referendum was not proposed, and a considerable part of the Scottish supported to stay in Britain for staying in Europe. In 2016, the Brexit referendum made most of the Scotians who supported Europe more or less a feeling of being deceived by Britain. Since Now that the United Kingdom and the European Union are gradually drifting, "British" in the hearts of these people may mean a greater hope of "entering the European".

The results of various polls can also reflect this: Since 2014, the support rate of the Scottish people has almost reached the level of 55.3%at the first referendum, and even rarely reached 50%. "Death cross" many times (see the figure below).

From the independent referendum in 2014, the support rate of Scottish (red) and independent (green) support rates, sources: wikipedia

Of course, unlike former Prime Minister Cameron, Johnson has never given concessions on this "principle issue", and he has repeatedly stated that he will not agree with Scotland to hold a second referendum. However, it is indeed necessary for the British government to start with diplomacy and negotiate with the European Union to properly handle the "Northern Ireland Protocol" and even British and European bilateral relations, which drives the solution to the internal affairs and alleviate the domestic contradictions of the Brexit. question.

Only in this way, the "Globalization Joint Kingdom" conceived by Johnson will not become the "divided kingdom" of only England and Wales.

(Hu Yuzhen, member of the China Translation Association, international political columnist)

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