Academician Wang Huijun: Let the forecast "run" in front of the disaster

Wang Huijun, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the first batch of experts and members of the Chinese Science and Technology Think Tank, member of the review committee, atmospheric scientific expert, researcher and doctoral supervisor of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and director of the Academic Committee of Nanjing Information Engineering University.

Wang Huijun is mainly engaged in research on ancient climate simulation, monsoon mutation and climate prediction theory, and has made important contributions to the study of climate change in East Asia, revealing the weakening of East Asian summer wind in the late 1970s; completed my country's first climate -based model based on its own climate model Global heating quantitative simulation results.

The climate system predicts scientific support for climate change

Climate change will have a great impact on society, economy, life, and ecological environment, which makes climate prediction a hot issue in the climate. Wang Huijun said that scientists are currently committed to developing the global system model and high -resolution climate system model. Relying on super -large computers, they can make more scientific and reliable simulation and predictions on the earth's climate and environmental changes. Climate forecasts include changes in temperature, changes in humidity, rising sea level, changes in rainfall, changes in rivers, changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones and other extreme weather. At the same time, he said that climate prediction is a world -class scientific problem. So far, there has not been a complete climate prediction theory. No country in the world has a mature climate forecast business system.

In 2020, the National Natural Science Foundation Fund Climate System Forecast Basic Science Center was established in Nanjing, and Wang Huijun was appointed as chief expert of the project. He said that the climate system forecasting basic science center must solve three key problems: the predictions of El Niho and the southern Tao dynamic and sea temperature, the extension weather forecast, and the age climate prediction. It is also said that the center will become one of the important "think tanks" for global climate prediction in the future.

Wang Huijun said that heavy weather such as heavy rain, high temperature heat waves, and Blizzard frozen, which caused a strong disaster, had a huge impact on people's production and life. The goal of climate warning prediction was to make the forecast "run" in front of the disaster. He said that if we can predict the area, rainfall, and duration of Meiyu 1-2 months in advance, predict the degree of drought in North China and the broken flow of the Yellow River in the summer. Promotion of disaster reduction work. Wang Huijun believes that the research on the technical method of the 10-30 days of extension periods is the general trend for meteorological research. And the longer -term climate "inter -age forecast" research must also be put on the agenda as soon as possible.

The climate system model is the basic tool for predicting climate change. It is mainly to describe and perform different combinations of different geographical circles (atmospheric rings, biospheres, water rings, ice and snow rings, rock rings). The purpose of predicting climate change. When Wang Huijun was doing a doctoral dissertation, he mainly studied and established a mixed layer of marine model and sea ice model, and developed a coupling of the atmospheric circulation mode. Based on this, the first global warming quantitative study based on its own climate model was completed. Essence

But at the same time, he also said that climate change has high complexity, and predicts that there will be great uncertainty in the future. He said, "In the next ten years, the Global Science Center of the Climate System Forecast will overcome technical difficulties, solve the problem of climate prediction in my country, and strive to reach the international leading level in the field of monsoon system dynamics and climate forecasting. Construction and response to climate change provides important scientific support. "

Pollutant emissions and increased greenhouse gases are the cause of climate warming

In the past century, the average temperature temperature of China's land area increased by 0.9 ° C -1.5 ° C, and the global climate has a trend of warming. Wang Huijun said that the average temperature of the global surface has always been growing, and the most affected and most intuitive are the polar regions. He found that the decrease in the Arctic sea ice caused the atmospheric circulation in the polar and mid -high latitudes regions, which was not conducive to the spread of cold air to the south, which weakened the winter wind, which hindered the spread of pollutants in my country, which led to the spread of pollutants. High hair in the middle and lower reaches of winter haze.

At the same time, he mentioned that some scientists expect the Pacific Ocean Inter -Emiers to Surge (PDO) from 2030 to 2035 may be transferred to the positive aspect. At that time, the agency heating may put pressure on the climate system together with the increase in greenhouse gas, and climate warming will change. It is even more violent. The Pacific Age Emperors (PDO) can cause the atmosphere to fluctuate in the atmosphere. After 2000, the PDO turned into a negative position, which played a certain relief effect on the rise of temperature.

Wang Huijun pointed out that human activities, especially pollutant emissions and increased greenhouse gases are the causes of climate warming and a series of corresponding climate change. And humans and many animals and plants are difficult to adapt to severe climate changes, especially this kind of severe climate change will be accompanied by frequent weather and climate events and worsening disasters. He said that if the rate of global warming is not contained, it will have a significant impact on human society and ecological environment, and many of them may be negative. For example, Wang Huijun and his research team discovered that the East Asian summer winds began to weaken from the mid -to -late 1970s and maintained decades, which led to continued drought in North China in my country. (Text/Wang Huilan)

Academician Wang Huijun spoke at the International Academic Symposium

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Introduction to Academician Wang Huijun

Wang Huijun, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the first batch of experts and members of the Chinese Science and Technology Think Tank, member of the review committee, atmospheric scientific expert, researcher and doctoral supervisor of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and director of the Academic Committee of Nanjing Information Engineering University. It is mainly engaged in research work in the aspects of ancient climate simulation, monsoon mutation and climate prediction theory. He combined the research of ancient and modern climate and made important contributions to the research on climate change in East Asia, revealing the weakening of East Asian summer winds in the late 1970s; revealing the significant impact of Antarctica, Hadley, and North Atlantic Tao Dynamic on East Asian climate. ; Completed my country's first global warming quantitative simulation result based on its own climate model; proposed tropical similarity and annual incremental climate forecasting ideas and methods, which significantly improved the climate prediction level of East Asian climate and typhoon activities.

He has won the National Natural Science Award, He Liang He Li Science and Progress Award, National Outstanding Science and Technology Worker, Lu Jiaxi Excellent Tutor Award, the Chinese Academy of Sciences Natural Science Award, the Outstanding Young Scientist Award of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhao Jiuzhang Outstanding Middle -aged Science Science Work Award, Xue Fu Fengfeng Zhengfeng Zhengzheng Excellent Youth Science and Technology Award. He was selected for the first batch of national plans for 10 million talents, and enjoys special allowances of the State Council. Published more than 220 academic papers, of which more than 140 articles were included in SCI (E), which were quoted more than 1,800 times.

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