Russian gold is facing a "precise blow"?Russian media: The G7 ban will not have a significant impact on the Russian economy

【环球时报报道 记者倪浩 环球时报驻俄罗斯特派记者隋鑫柳直青木】“七国集团（G7）将共同宣布禁止进口俄罗斯黄金。”美国总统拜登26日在社交媒体上表示，将通过这One party prevented Putin from getting "war funds". Reuters said that the Seventh -way Group Summit held in Germany will finalize this joint sanctions step. Domestic experts believe that G7's sanctions on Russian gold have actually begun since March. The Western "aiming" Russian gold intends to accurately crack down on the Russian economy, but Russian people point out that the multiple rounds of economic sanctions initiated by the West have not only made Russian energy and currencies stronger, but also caused the western economy to soar and so on. " Anti -Bad ". This time the same script will be staged.

Russia's "No fear" import ban

U.S. Secretary of State Brosky said in an interview with the United States CNN on the 26th that the embargo on Russian gold exports will cause Moscow to lose about $ 19 billion in income each year. Today's Russian website reported on the 26th that in the face of the pressure of the West's failed to sanction to damage the Russian economy, Brinken believes that the golden embargo will appear next year. In an interview with CNN, Brinken said that gold is "Following Energy, Russia's second largest exported goods, most of which are buyers within G7 countries. Cutting this channel is of great significance."

"Brinken's statement does not match the facts." Today, Russia's website said on the 26th that in fact, Russia's second largest export goods were grain products. According to Moscow's data, the exports of Russian agricultural products in 2021 exceeded $ 37 billion. Russia accounts for about 8.5%of the world's gold production, the third largest producer after China and Australia. Data from the Federal Ministry of Finance in Russia, Russia's gold output was 343 tons in 2021, of which 286 tons came from the mine. Initially estimated that Russia exported a total of 30.2.2 tons of gold in 2021, worth $ 17.4 billion.

Today's Russian website said that the US President Biden said that the gold ban will "let Russia pay unprecedented price", and British Prime Minister Johnson also claims that this will "hit the heart of the Putin War machine." However, although Bayeng promised to "re -create" the Russian economy in March, Russia's oil and natural gas are gaining a record profit, and the exchange rate of rubles to the US dollar and the euro is at the highest level in seven years. At the same time, the inflation rate of the European Union and the United States is at the highest level in 40 years, and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic are paying a record high oil price. The President of the European Council Michelle said that the EU will first determine that the gold is targeting Russia and the economy, rather than "our own economy."

"Western sanctions on Russia's gold will not work. Even if it is banned, Russia can export through a variable way, such as mixing with crude oil from third countries like oil exports." Russian gold investment institution "Gold Coin Home "Vice President Alexei Viazovsky said in an interview with the Moscow Communist Youth League on the 25th that in the context of the increasingly tense geopolitics, people are particularly interested in gold. It is impossible for the West to block the gold market and cannot set up barriers to Russia's gold reserves. "When the gold ingots in the warehouse of the International Bank and the Stock Exchange are used up, they immediately think of Russia."

It may exacerbate raw material price increases

Traditionally, Russian Gold Mine sold gold to the National Bank, and then the bank sent it out, including for export. In early March, the London Gold and Silver Market Association deleted the six large golden refiners in Russia from the list of trusted suppliers. This actually excludes the Russian gold bars in the most important precious metal trading center, the Bank of London's interbank transactions. The Chairman of the Russian Gold Producer Alliance Cheri Kashuba said that the news about the prohibition of imports from G7 countries was expected. "After that, Russia stopped supplying gold to unreasonable countries. Organized international markets in Tokyo. "At present, Russian companies can still choose to sell gold in the domestic market.

Professor of Beijing Normal University and Researcher of the Belt and Road College Wan Ye told the Global Times on the 27th that Russian gold exports a large number of exports to London each year because London is the world's largest spot gold trading center. However, in March of this year, the spot gold freight between Russia and London, England has been interrupted. From this perspective, G7's sanctions on Russia have been implemented as early as March, and it is not now released in policy.

Wan Ye believes that the supply and demand of global spot gold has been in a relatively balanced state for many years, and the overall transaction volume is not prominent. Therefore, this time the G7's embargo on Russian gold's embargo affects more transaction emotions in the futures market.

"At this time, G7 announced the trade ban on Russian gold, which is a channel to further cut off Russia's financing as hard currency." Wanzhang analyzed that Russia has undergone financial aspects after the Crimean crisis in 2014 Many years of preparation, so the impact of this sanctions on Russia will not be particularly serious, and it will not have a direct impact on China.

"G7 will not have any significant impact on Russia's implementation of the gold import ban." The Russian "News" quoted Russian economist Beligayev on the 26th, saying that more than 60%of the world's gold was in the jewelry industry Consumption, the central bank consumes about 10%of gold. However, in the jewelry industry, the main consumer of gold is the Arab countries in India, China and the Middle East. "How the West banned China and India to acquire gold in gold is a big problem." According to Russian free media reports on the 26th, Dr. Kleche, a doctorate in Russian economics, Fasky said that gold is also widely used in industry, especially semiconductor industry. Direct ban will increase costs and stimulate global inflation. The view that the Russian fiscal website "1Prime" quoted Mikhail Cogen, the director of the Department of Analysis and Research of the School of Financial Management of Russia, pointed out that the EU incorporating gold in Russia's sanctions will lead to further increase in gold prices, which may increase and maintain long -term maintenance More than 2,000 US dollars/ounce.

According to the "Business Daily", the expansion of Western sanctions to other precious metals will also have a heavy blow to the German automotive industry. For example, the country is the second largest producer, which is used to clean the discharge of gasoline cars and diesel cars. Russia controls about 40%of the world's supply. Delivery in the German automotive industry will be a major issue, because from the perspective of experts, Russia's puppets cannot replace the market.

Switzerland leaves a window?

"The European Union may support a plan for the implementation of the gold import ban in Russia," Germany New News Agency said on the 26th that the EU is expected to join the plan to prohibit the import of Russian gold. The German "Business Daily" said on the 26th that Russian gold trading is still booming in trading centers such as Dubai, Shanghai and Istanbul. It is unclear whether the West will expand sanctions to the exports of more precious metals, or whether Russia will respond to stop delivery.

According to British customs data, about 1,600 tons of gold in 2021 flowed into the Gold market of London from Canada, Russia and the United States, accounting for 80%of total imports. In the same year, about 2,000 tons of gold flowed into Switzerland from the United Kingdom for re -export trade, most of which flowed towards gold, especially China and India.

As one of the world's largest gold import and export centers, Switzerland's role in sanctions on Russia is particularly important. Five Swiss Gold Refinery processing as many as 70%of gold in the world. The Swiss "Finance News" said on the 24th that after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, Switzerland shall implement the trade ban on the gold produced by the Russian refinery, but according to the law, Switzerland cannot prohibit gold from importing gold from Russia. In this context, news that three tons of Russian gold was brought to Switzerland not long ago.

Viazovsky believes that Russia's gold has two hubs in Europe -London and Zurich. "At present, London has disappeared, but Zurich is not in a hurry to make decisions. There are no gold mines in Europe, and all resources have been exhausted in the Middle Ages." Viazovsky said that Switzerland urgently needs physical gold because Switzerland was issued. A large number of gold derivatives and futures are also called "paper gold". The market's demand for gold will explode cyclical.

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