What is the support behind the "arrogance" of the ruble exchange rate for 7 years?

Recently, the US dollar against the Russian ruble exchange rate fell below the 50s and continued its new low since June 2015. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has soared about 40%, becoming the best currency in the world, which can be described as a "strongest counterattack". You know, in early March, $ 1 can also be exchanged for 139 rubles. At that time, the United States and the European Union imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia.

Why can rubles maintain strong under the severe sanctions of the West? Does this mean that Russia's economic toughness is still full?

In this regard, the senior researcher and Natixis Asia-Pacific chief economist Alician García-Herrero of the Asia Pacific region of Brucer think told "Daily Economic News" reporter that people should not be too Over optimism, the strength of the ruble is basically based on exchange rate control. Whether the Russian economy has toughness is more important to depend on its import and export capabilities.

Strong "counterattack"

Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of rubles has soared by more than 40%, becoming the best currency in the world. According to Britain's financial data, as of press time, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble was 1: 53.39. Despite the decline, the rubles are still standing at a high point nearly 7 years.

Image source: Yingwei Caiqing

Under normal circumstances, countries that are sanctioned by economic sanctions often depreciate currency due to capital fleeing, but rubles are "more frustrated and more brave." CNBC commented that the strength of rubles is mainly affected by high international energy prices. Russia is the world's largest natural gas exporter and the second largest oil exporter. The European Union purchases billions of dollars in Russia energy every week. Although many Western countries are trying to curb Russia's oil exports, high international crude oil prices Still brings a record of Russia's record.

Gong Xiuguo, a researcher at the China-EU Higher Education Cooperation Project and a professor of international economics at Sichuan University, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" through WeChat that "the appreciation of the ruble is the high price of international commodities in the current geopolitical background, and the US EU sanctions Russia The direct result of anti -sanctions with Russia. "

"The Russian central bank data shows that from January to May, Russia's frequent account surplus exceeds $ 110 billion." Professor Gong added.

The data published by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which is headquartered in Finland, confirms this. Data show that in the 100 days before the Russian conflict, Russia received $ 98 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports. More than half of them are from the EU, about $ 60 billion.

Regarding the rise of ruble exchange rates, the Foreign Policy Research Institute researcher Max Hess said that although Russia may have decreased to the Western oil exports, as the West began to cut off its dependence on Russian oil, International oil prices have begun to soar, which has brought huge profits to Russia.

"Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that at the end of November last year, the price of Brent crude oil futures was around $ 66 per barrel. By late February, this number exceeded 92 US dollars, and it had soared to more than $ 120 on June 22. As of press time, the price of Brent crude oil futures has fallen, about $ 110, but still increased by more than 60%over the same period last year.

Image source: Yingwei Caiqing

Today, the European Union is trying to reduce its dependence on Russia's energy imports. In May this year, the leaders of EU member states reached an agreement on Russia's sixth round of sanctions, saying that it would immediately prohibit the import of 75%of Russian oil, which will be expanded to 90%before the end of the year. Wait for inland countries to continue to purchase Russian oil through land pipelines.

Hidden worry

In the past three months, rubles have not only completely made up for all the sanctions suffered this year, but also more than doubled from early March this year.

At the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum held last week, Russian President Putin said that the strong recovery of the ruble exchange rate showed that the Russian economy has undergone violent sanctions in the West. He said, "The purpose of this idea (European and American sanctions) is clear, that is, violently destroy the Russian economy, but they have not succeeded. Obviously, nothing happened."

In fact, the trend of "opening and hanging" all the way to Russia began to worry.

According to the "Reference News", despite Russia's inflation began to slow down, rubles are too strong and not conducive to exporters, and exports are the main sources of budget revenue. Natalia Millccustova, chief analyst of Russian Liberty Financial Information Company, explained: "In the case of the weak ruble, exporters can get greater profits from them and pay more profit taxes to the budget accordingly. From this kind of type. From an angle, the ruble is too expensive to be too cheap, which is not conducive to the economy. "

Russia's first Deputy Prime Minister Andre Bueluusov believes that over -appreciation of rubles is related to the central bank's failure to control the ruble exchange rate as the goal. The goal of the central bank is to control inflation rather than exchange rates. For the Russian industry, the most suitable exchange rate is $ 1 against 70 rubles to 80 rubles.

Gong Xiuguo also believed in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the strengthening of the ruble is not a good thing for Russia, nor can it indicate that the Russian economy is tough. Reflect directly. Data show that Russia's unemployment rate from January to April is about 4%, but the Russian Ministry of Economic Affairs said in mid -May that it is expected that the unemployment rate will reach nearly 7%this year, and it will not be able to recover from 2025 to 2021 in 2025. Level (5.01%). Russia has partially relaxed capital control and reduced deposit interest rates to boost the economy.

Garcia-Elero also told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that people should not be too optimistic to look at the strength of the ruble. Because Russia (some banks) are eliminated by the restrictions brought by the international financial system, the rubles are in the world internationally The market is not a convertible currency, so its performance is not a "market price".

"The strength of the ruble is basically based on exchange rate control, which is not helpful for the healthy operation of the internal economic environment. It is more important to see its import and export capability whether the Russian economy is tough." Garcia-Elero added.

Daily Economic News

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