The fourth month of the Russian and Ukraine conflict: war, or peace?

"If everyone only fights for his own beliefs, there is no war." The famous saying in Lev Tolstoy's "War and Peace" may still be applicable today.

After the Russian -Ukraine conflict lasted more than 4 months, the world still did not see signs of peace.

On June 16, German Chancellor, Tsumarz, French President Macron and Italian Chancellor Delagi to Kyiv by train to talk to Ukraine President Zeisky. Before departure, Macron publicly called for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia and reiterate that long -term hostile to Russia is not a long -term feasibility solution for European security.

On June 16, 2022, local time, German Chancellor, Tsumarz (right), French President Macron (middle), and Italian Chancellor Delagi (left) from Poland to Ukraine Kiku. Figure/People's Vision

Sadly, the fate of Ukraine does not seem to be in his hands, and even the same is true of the entire European destiny. It is Russia, the United States, and the result of many controllable and uncontrollable factors that can be determined or peaceful.

In the Western world, when they collectively discussed Russian President Putin, they seemed to ignore the role of the United States in this conflict.

Although the former Super Power Soviet Union has disintegrated, the United States still regards the main heirs of the Soviet Union as an important geopolitical opponent. With the rise of China, the United States needs to gradually shift its strategic focus from Europe to Asia Pacific, and Russia has become a trouble that needs to be resolved as soon as possible.

The script designed in the United States is: By constantly compressing Russia's strategic space, it is forced to use military means to use military means, and then fall into the quagmire of war. Eventually, the economic collapse and isolated by the international community.

US Secretary of Defense Austin has made it clear that the United States hopes to see that Russia has been "weakened" to a certain extent during the Russian and Ukraine War, making it impossible for the Russian army to launch or participate in a war.

A damaged residential building shot in the center of Irpine, Kenfu, Ukraine on May 31. Picture source: Xinhua News Agency

The initial idea of ​​Russia may also try to avoid long -term confrontation with the West. However, its plan to speed up is quickly defeated by reality. Even in the plot of the United States, it has suffered setbacks in economics and military.

But the Biden government obviously underestimated the toughness of the Russian economy and the ability of the Russian army, and also overestimated the ability of the country's economy. Under a series of backgrounds such as Russia's severe sanctions and soaring international energy prices, the global economic recession is difficult to avoid, and it is even more impossible for the United States to be alone.

At the same time, Russia seems to be recovering from chaos, both on the battlefield and in the economic field.

The article published by the New York Times on June 10 held that Western sanctions and the withdrawal of Western companies obviously failed to destroy the Russian economy. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia's oil export revenue increased by 11%year -on -year, and crude oil exports increased by nearly 500,000 barrels per day from the beginning of the year.

On June 17, Russian President Putin delivered a speech at the 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum: Xinhua News Agency

Putin announced on June 17 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (Spief), known as the "Russian version of Davos" that the budget surplus in Russia in the first five months of this year reached 1.5 trillion rubles. It is close to 500 billion rubles, more than three times higher than May last year. At the same time, Russia's inflation level has begun to fall, and the exchange rate of rubles has risen steadily.

On May 15th, a local resident was sitting outdoors and resting in Ukraine. Picture source: Xinhua News Agency

At present, Russia has unexpected negotiation chips, and the United States seems to be unwilling to admit defeat easily. The two parties may not sit in front of the negotiating table in the short term. Whether it is war or peace, the most injured after this conflict is the European continent and Ukraine involved in the agent war.

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