American "guardrail": the harm of the global industrial chain

Reporter: What is the background of the US "Inflation Act"?

Wang Jiaqiang: The Act Act of Aflation is a bill designed to suppress US inflation by reducing fiscal deficit, reducing consumption costs, and investing in new energy, involving energy security and climate change, medical health, tax reform and other fields. It is said that the bill is expected to increase the US $ 737 billion in fiscal revenue to the United States in the next 10 years, reducing the fiscal deficit of more than $ 300 billion.

The "Angle Act Act" is essentially the "Reduction Edition" of the "Reconstruction of the Better Future Act". Started the largest national public investment since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The initial scale of the plan was US $ 3.5 trillion. Due to the large differences between the two parties, it fell to about 2.2 trillion US dollars after many games, but it was still opposed by senators Manqin. Since then, after several months of negotiations and local adjustments, the scale has shrunk sharply. At the time of the high inflation of the United States, it was amended to the "Inflation Act".

At present, the support rate of Bayeng's government's public opinion is declining. At this time, the bill is introduced to win the support of the public's support for mid -term elections. The process of the bill is also worthy of fun. On August 7 this year, the Senate barely passed the bill with 51 votes. Democrats voted in favor of votes. Republicans voted against votes. Finally, a votes from Vice President Harris broke the deadlock. On August 12, the House of Representatives passed the bill with 220 votes to 207 votes, which still voted in favor of Democrats. Republicans voted against votes, which reflected the phenomenon of political polarization in the United States and the political dispute between the party's political disputes under the "American democracy". Efficacy.

Li Yan: The bill focuses on the climate change and the new energy industry. Among them, it is planned to invest 369 billion US dollars in the field of energy security and climate change. Judging from the main content of this bill, although the bill is called the "British Act", there are not many short -term effective practices that can directly inhibit the level of highly inflation in the United States. One of its main logic is to promote the transformation of US energy and reduce the US energy transformation and reduce The U.S. expenditure in the field of medical care reduces domestic energy prices in the United States, and controls the level of inflation in the middle and long term.

Reporter: Can the bill really reduce American inflation?

Wang Jiaqiang: Just as the voting process is so reluctant, the side reflects the name of the bill. In fact, the US high inflation has complicated causes: it has implemented super loose monetary policy and large -scale fiscal expenditure to cope with the epidemic and stimulate the economy; The global supply chain has increased production and consumption costs; the Ukrainian crisis has promoted the surge in global food and energy prices, and the inflation situation has further deteriorated; the green transition constraints in the context of climate change are large for the large carbon emissions country like the United States, and it has a larger result in a large country such as the United States. Inflation pressure.

To solve the problem of inflation, the law of supply and demand is inseparable. On the one hand, we must vigorously enhance the manufacturing capacity, reduce trade barriers, and improve the level of supply; on the other hand, we must vigorously reduce the excess demand brought by the Fed's over -currency issuance, residents' excessive liabilities, and government excessive expenses. From the specific content, the "Angle Act of Afnea" can be described as a lot of money for lowering American inflation, and in some ways, it is even opposite.

First, the bill will promote investment and consumer demand. Investment in the field of energy and climate will cause inflation pressure to promote demand, and it is mainly focused on the development of new energy sources and promoting green production. The elderly are more favorable, and the marginal consumption tendency of such people may increase inflation.

The second is to increase taxes on large enterprises for a long time. The bill sets a minimum tax rate of 15%of an annual revenue of more than $ 1 billion, which can tax more than $ 222 billion. The increasing tax burden on large enterprises will restrict investment and supply chain improvement to a certain extent; taxation will also affect long -term innovative investment and capital expenses, and offset the positive impact of green investment on supply growth. The US Taxation Foundation predicts that the bill will reduce the long -term output of the United States by about 0.1%and the loss of about 30,000 jobs. Third, the scale of fiscal deficit is not large. The US fiscal deficit of 2021 is as high as US $ 2.8 trillion, and the implementation of the bill is expected to reduce the fiscal deficit of about 30 billion US dollars, and this will be realized in the next 10 years, reducing about $ 30 billion in deficits each year, and the inflation effect is very limited. The US Congress Budget Office predicts that the fiscal deficit will reach US $ 14.5 trillion in the next ten years, and the deficit reduction in the bill will only be 2.1%. Moreover, whether the bill can cut deficit is still doubtful. The sharp interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve are likely to lead to decline in the US economy in 2023, reduce fiscal revenue, and the scale of deficit will rise again.

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The discrimination clause violates the principles of the WTO, and the United States uses industrial policies for its own interests to distort the global new energy market competition.