21 depth ｜ Brothers are here!Why did Italy choose the first extreme right -wing female prime minister

21st Century Business Herald Special Reporter Shi Yan London Report

A blonde and charming 45 -year -old Roman Roman, Giorgia Meloni, will soon become the first female prime minister in Italian history. It is expected that the new government will officially take office in late October.

The leading leader of the Italian Brothers, which originated from New Fascism, emerged in the election in the general election, causing the EU to be deeply worried, and also encouraged the extreme right -wing party in Germany and France. The possibility of right wing in charge.

On September 26, the early official results of the Italian Ministry of the Interior confirmed the export poll data: In the general election on the 25th, Melonney won about 26%of the votes, and her leader led 43.8%support. The new ruling alliance with a strong majority of status in the two houses of the parliament may bring rare opportunities for political stability to Italy, which is turbulent in politics. For this country that has produced 30 prime ministers and more than 60 governments since 1946, It is undoubtedly good news.

However, the differences in the stance of Melonney and his allies on several key policies have also enveloped the unity of the future governing alliance in the future. Wolmango Piccoli, headquartered in London's research company Teneo, believes that Melonney's charm to voters allows her to gain a foothold in the two old -fashioned male politicians, but in the next few months, keep unity with them. " "Possible jobs"; in the past ten years, Italian voters' preferences for the party are also very unstable, especially Melonney is facing a "difficult winter". When dealing with these complicated challenges, you want to keep The degree of popularity is not easy.

The third largest economy in the European Union governed by the former European Central Bank Governor of the European Central Bank is facing a series of arduous tasks -how to reverse the soaring energy bills, rampant inflation, and government bonds under high economic growth slowly slowed down again. Europe The prospect of the central bank's further interest rate hike also pushed the yield of the 10 -year bonds in Italy to more than 4.3%, a few more than 1%a year ago.

"We haven't arrived yet," Melonney delivered a sober speech in the cheers of the supporters of Monday morning. "This is a starting point, not the end line. From tomorrow, we must prove our value."

As in France and Sweden, voters are becoming more and more tired of the failure of old parties and cooked noodles, and the Italians have gone further this time. How will they feel refreshing Meloni? How many differences will her reform plan with the European Union? How long can her government lead the government? Throughout Europe, wait and see.

Why did Melonony win?

Although the voting rate fell to about 64%of a historical low, which was about 9 percentage points lower than the last election in 2018, the Italians clearly chose a new face that did not try to solve the severe problems facing the country.

Meloni, born in 1977, was a journalist. Since 2006, he has been a member of the Italian House of Representatives. leader. In the last election, her party received only 4.3%of the votes.

The Italian Brother Party was only established in 2012. The political platform has obvious populism and anti -immigrant colors. In the past, it was regarded by the traditional party forces as "no flow". Its root can be traced back to the "New Fascist Movement" in Italy after World War II. The rise of the brother party shuddered the liberals. Although Melonney tried to describe the party as a "orthodox" conservative in this election, she denied that she was a fascist.

Honesty's political commentator Marcello Sorgi may most explain why Ms. Meronney quickly won the hearts of Italian voters.

"I think the most important question of this election is whether Georgia is a fascist, and the Italians are not interested in whether she is a fascist," he said: "Voters' two most common answers to this question are, They have tried all other choices, Ms. Ms. Ms. Merity is at least faithful to her principles. "

From the perspective of political observers, Melonney's success is largely due to her decision to exclude her party from the cross -party government of Drageta, which strengthened her voice as an opposition.

Since 2000, Italy's per capita GDP has not increased. At present, nearly 1/4 young people are in a state of unemployment or unsuccessful vocational training. This indicator is almost the bottom of the European Union. Over the past 30 years, the Italian government has the average duration of less than 20 months. Politicians rotate like a horse lamp, but the deep -rooted problem has always been there.

The struggle for the voting was mainly between Melonony and former Prime Minister, and the leader of the middle left -wing Democratic Party, Enrico Letta. Leita repeatedly warned Melonney's danger before the election, describing himself as a fighter who blocked the right -wing fascist ones, claiming that Melonney would become "unprepared" once he got a 40%parliamentary seat.

It turns out that for voters, the bald and gentle speaking Mr. Glasses are obviously not as attractive as Melonney. However, rather than Reta was defeated by Meloni, it was better to be defeated by himself, because he failed to form a extensive party alliance before the election to effectively fight the right wing, especially his exclusion of exclusion The five -star party cooperation with the third voting rate was the reason that the party's first dismantling caused the Drageta government to dissolve, which caused the Democratic Party to almost be destined to fall into a failure ending since the beginning of the campaign. In addition, the Italian left -wing party led by the Democratic Party was also accused of losing contact with the working class and the poor.

Giovanni orsina, a professor of political science at Romani University of Romans, opposed that Meloni was threatened. He said: "Meloni is a believer politician. Of course, she is the right wing, but part of it is the belief in national interests, which makes her a realist. She tends to see the original face of the world. "

Two major problems: alliance unity and EU relations

During the 18 -month term, Dracori pushed Rome to the EU decision -making center and re -established a close friendship with Paris and Berlin. Melonney, who is about to take over his election, claims politely: "Don't immigrate on a large scale! Work for our compatriots! No to say no to large international finance! To the bureaucrats of Brussels!"

Meloni once called Brussels bureaucracy as an agent of "global elites driven by international finance". She also wrote a very different point of view in the autobiography: Russia in Putin "defending European values ​​and Christian identity "".

Italy is one of the six founding members of the European Union. Before this election, the German Social Democratic Party warned that Meloni's victory was not conducive to European cooperation. Feng Delin, the chairman of the European Commission, also bluntly worried that the right wing brought Europe to the "difficult direction".

The other bipolar in the Melonney Governance Alliance, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, are also not trusted by the EU. They had a bad relationship with Brussels when governing. In the future, the relationship between Italian right -wing government and the European Union will undoubtedly be more complicated.

The financial community is worried that Meloni, which lacks government experience, will lose control of government debt over 150%of Italy.

In addition, the two Melonyli, a very powerful campaign alliance in Italian politics, had a strong result in the election -Salvini's alliance party received only about 9%of the votes, and the Italian power party of Berluskini was only 8%. In future policy affairs, what decisions will they have, and will they be willing to lined with red leaves?

In particular, from the perspective of the observer, the success of the Brother Party is considered to be almost at the expense of the Alliance Party. At the same time as the rise of the brothers' party, the party's support rate led by Salvini dropped from 33%to 12%, especially in the northern Italy of the Alliance Party's core support region. The intense relationship between Pooh has become more subtle.

The two obvious differences between Salvini and Melonini are: the former questioned the value of the EU's sanctions on Moscow and required Italy to increase the budget deficit to reduce the impact of the energy crisis.

Meloni has promised to maintain cautious finances, and will follow her predecessor to draft and approve the reform plan to solve the weakness of the economic structure of the country in China. This reform plan comes with a recovery of 200 billion euros. The largest funds injected with the Italian economy since the "Marshall Plan" since the World War II.

Sarah Carlson, senior vice president of Moody's Credit Rating Agency, said the next Italian government will have to manage debt burdens that are vulnerable to negative growth, financing costs and inflation.

For Melonney, perhaps the biggest problem is that in the background of the Ukraine crisis, energy shortage, inflation, and economic growth, how much can she have her thoughts to practice?

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