Will the world's largest rice exporter "shot" tax increases for international rice?

In the international grain market, any "wind blowing" may make people tighten the nerves.

Recently, India, the largest exporter of rice in the world, has announced that it has imposed tariffs on rice exports. What does this mean to the global grain market? Will it affect the price of rice in the international market?

Following wheat and sugar, India "shot" rice

The Indian government announced on the 8th that starting from September 9, 20%export tax except steaming valley rice and Indian fragrant rice are prohibited from exports of broken rice.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Ministry of Agriculture of India said that India's main grain -producing state northern states, Western Bangladesh and Bighar states in June were insufficient rainfall. The rainfall in July and August was unstable, resulting in a decrease of rice planting area by 13%. The 26.7 million hectares in the same period last year decreased to more than 23.1 million hectares.

On the one hand, rice output may decline, and on the other hand, the domestic grains in India have severe inflation.

According to the statistics of the Central Statistics Bureau of India, India's CPI in August rose from 6.71%in July to 7%, ending a three -month decline. Among them, the prices of grains and its products rose 9.57%.

According to the British "Financial Times", Ashok Gurati, a professor at the Indian International Economic Research Committee, said that export restrictions will "help suppress domestic grain inflation."

Out of concerns about domestic supply of atrophy and inflation, the ban on the export of broken rice and new export tariffs are the third major measures to restrict food exports this year.

After India's hottest March and April in more than 100 years, India restricted the exports of wheat and sugar in May due to fears that agricultural production in various places would be hit by heat waves.

Legage export tax and promote the rise in Asian rice prices

Statista data of the global comprehensive data database shows that the major rice exporters in the world in 2021 are India, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan and the United States. As the world's largest rice exporter, India occupies 40%of the world's rice exports. Last year, Indian rice exports reached a record 21.5 million tons.

According to Reuters, a dealer of a global trading company in Mumbai said that India has always been the cheapest rice supply country, which protects African countries such as Nigeria, Benin, and Cameroon from the price of wheat and corn. influences.

However, after levying export tax, "the increase in export costs of Indian rice. As Indian rice exports account for 40%of the world's global volume, it may promote the rise in rice prices in the international market." Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Rural Development Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters.

According to Bloomberg, BV Krishna Rao, chairman of the Indian Rice Export Merchants Association, predicts that the export price of white rice may exceed $ 400 per ton, while the current offshore price is as high as $ 350.

"The rise in rice prices will increase the economic burden on low -income grain -lacking countries, and survival will be more difficult." Li Guoxiang said, but the supply of rice in my country is relatively excess. India's move will not affect the supply structure of rice in my country. The impact of my country's rice prices is also small.

Peng Chao, director of the Rural Revitalization Research Center of the School of Management Cadres of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, also believes that rising international rice prices have a small impact on the domestic market. "Although my country is the world's largest importer, it only imported 4.96 million tons in 2021, accounting for only about 3.4%of total output. Moreover, the concentration of my country's rice import sources is not high."

Data map: CCIC Cambodian inspectors inspect rice at the rice processing plant. Company chart

But in India's concerns, this move will affect the position of Indian rice in the world market.

"The varieties that are currently levied for export tax account for about 60%of India's non -Basdami rice shipments. This restriction will benefit competitors Thailand and Vietnam, and they are cooperating to support rice prices." BV Krishna Rao said.

Broken rice is prohibited from exporting, which affects geometry on my country?

In addition to levying export taxes on steamed Valley rice and Indian fragrant rice, India also prohibits exports to broken rice.

According to the Wall Street Journal, as of the last fiscal year of March this year, India exported about 3.8 million tons of broken rice to the world, accounting for about one -fifth of its non -Basdi rice exports. From April to June, the export volume of such cheap products was 1.4 million tons, accounting for approximately one -third of the exports of non -Basmarti rice.

The "export ban" of India's fragmented rice has also affected the price of international broken rice.

According to Reuters, some dealers said that as Indian exporters stop signed a new contract, buyers are trying to obtain supply from competitors Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar. These countries have been in the past four days (September 8th to 9th local time (local time to 9 to 9 On the 11th), the price of 5%broken rice increased by about $ 20 per ton.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that China is the largest buyer in India's fragmented rice, mainly using it as animal feed and making wine.

According to the Zhiyan Consulting Report, China Customs data shows that the number of brown rice imports in 2021 was 666.666 tons; the number of Chinese essence rice imports was 2395760.186 tons; the number of Chinese broken rice imports was 2515321.889 tons. The import volume of broken rice exceeds refined rice and brown rice.

Does India's ban on fragile rice affect my country's crushed rice supply? In Li Guoxiang's view, "China can import or use other things from other countries to make feed, India's broken rice has strong replacement."

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