As a European "economic engine", Germany is facing a crisis of "flameout"?

[Global Times Special reporter Li Jing, a special reporter in Germany and France, Zhaodong Dongming, "Germany will no longer avoid decline." Saine, CEO of Germany Bank, made the world concentrate on the world to Germany. "European Economic Engine". This year, the news of bad news in Germany was frequently reported: August has reached the highest level in the past 50 years, the commercial boom index announced by the Institute of Economic Research in July has fallen to the lowest level in two years, and the first time in May 30 years has appeared in more than 30 years. Trade deficit ... These data have caused multi -national media and experts to question German economic growth and economic models, and some believe that the German model has "ended." Even the German Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic and Climate Protection, Habeck, said with emotion that the German economic model has failed. So what is the German economic model? What challenges do it encounter? Will it really be eliminated by the times?

From economic power to "weak links"

The first major warning signal of the German economic decline appeared in July. At that time, the foreign trade data released by the Federal Statistics Bureau at the time caused global concern -the export volume in Germany in May has shrunk by 0.5%month -on -month, the import volume rose 2.7%month -on -month, the trade deficit was 10 100 million euros. This is the first monthly trade deficit in Germany since the unity of Germany. The trade surplus has been regarded as the core creed of the rise of the German economy. For decades, the German trade surplus has remained at a particularly high level. German media such as "Daily Mirror" regarded trade deficits as "trend reversal with serious consequences" that endangered the "German prosperity model".

Bad news followed. According to media reports such as the Financial Times, the German economy has fallen into stagnation in the first to the second quarter of this year, while the overall economy of the euro zone has increased by 0.7%. Although the industrial production in Germany increased slightly in June, the number of orders decreased by 0.4%, 9%lower than the level a year ago. About 73.3%of the companies surveyed by the Institute of Economics (IFO) in July, about 73.3%said they were facing a shortage, and 90%of companies in the electronics, machinery manufacturing and automotive industries were difficult to buy all the required materials. In July, the International Monetary Fund's economic growth expectations in 2023 were reduced by 1.9 percentage points to 0.8%, which was the largest in all countries.

According to the European Dynamic Network, although people can easily blame the sharp changes in the German economy on the rise in energy prices and the shortage of natural gas, there are signs that "the patient has been ill for a while." In the past five years, the German trade surplus has declined year by year. The Wall Street Journal states that the German economy has not increased for nearly 5 years, and the strength of recovery from the new crown pneumonia's epidemic is not as good as other major developed economies. The European Commission predicts that Germany's economic growth rate will be 1.4%this year, lower than the EU's overall 2.7%and 2.4%of France. Many people are worried that Germany will have a technological recession -that is, negative growth in two consecutive quarters.

"European Economic Lighting Country", "The Broadcasting of the Euro Area", "The Edge of Destiny", "End of the Economic Model", "Economic Model", "Economic Models have come to an end" ... Multi -country mainstream media not only have an attitude towards Germany's economic growth attitude towards , Also questioning the economic model of Germany's dependence on exports. According to the Turkish Daily News, analysts of the Dutch International Group believe that the Russian -Ukraine conflict has "ended" the German economic model.

Some media reminded that in the face of various new types of international challenges, the "German model" that continues to eat the old "German model" may fail. If it does not change a lot, Germany may follow the recession of Japan's decline in the 1990s, and it may even become reduced to become reduced to become reduced to become reduced to become reduced to become reduced. The second -rate country on the world economic stage. Because the German economy will have a connection on other European countries, the latter calls on Germany to re -formulate economic models. The French "Echo" believes that the re -positioning of the German economy is beneficial to the European Union.

Why is the German economic model questioned

Why is the economic model of Germany, known as the "Star of the Global Economy"?

According to media reports such as Reuters, after World War II, with the assistance of the United States, Germany established an economy based on automobiles, machinery and chemicals. Since the unification of the two Germans, the German governments have pursued the same goal regardless of their political colors: turning Germany into the world's largest manufacturing country. The British "New Politician" magazine analyzed that German economic growth relies on three pillars: cheap energy and raw materials imports, inhibiting the wages of domestic manufacturing, and a large export. The views of the Wall Street Journal are slightly different, but it also mentioned that the success of the German economy relies on free and open global trade and cheap energy sources. Zhao Yongsheng, a researcher at the National Academy of Foreign Openings and Global Innovation and Governance of the University of Foreign Economics and Trade, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that the German economic model has three major support, which are industrial categories based on heavy industry, trade direction based on exports, financial banks Based on consortium.

Although the above analysis is not completely consistent, it can be seen that cheap energy and raw materials, exports, and an international environment that has an important impact on exports has a vital role in German economic growth. In recent years, the price of raw materials has risen sharply due to the supply chain crisis. According to media reports such as "New Politician" magazine, due to the rise in fuel prices, Germany faced the pressure of energy imports in 2021, and the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict increased this pressure sharply. Before the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine, 55%of Germany's natural gas, 50%of coal and 35%of oil came from Russia.

After World War II, Germany was able to rise rapidly in economy and largely thanks to exports to a large extent. At present, as the global "export third place" after China and the United States, about 1/4 of Germany's employment positions depend on exports, which is much higher than that of Western countries such as the United States (6%). "Voice of Germany" said that during the golden age of globalization, export -oriented German economies have obtained huge benefits, and in recent years, globalization has encountered reverse winds, which has also caused "German manufacturing" to face trouble. Dalia Marlin, an expert in the Belgian think tank Buluzer International Economic Research Institute, recently posted that in 2008, the global financial crisis ended "super globalization", and the epidemic of new crown pneumonia caused "de -globalization". Accelerate this trend. In addition, the "New Politician" magazine believes that the success of Germany's exports over the past decade is largely because of selling high value -added products to Asian countries such as China, such as complex machine tools and high -end cars. However, the development of China's manufacturing industry has reduced the competitiveness of German products. The third largest pillar of the German economic model is that the salary level of workers has been inhibited for a long time. After the two Germany unified, by investing in new factories in Eastern Europe, German companies integrated the relatively low salary Eastern European economy into its industrial chain, which directly reduced the cost of German companies and limited the rise in German workers' wages. During the global financial crisis from the 1990s to 2008, the average actual salary in Germany had almost no increase, and even declined from 2004 to 2008. In 2015, Germany began to implement a statutory minimum wage nationwide. However, with the rise in living costs and the shortage of labor, whether the wages of workers inhibit this pillar are still a problem.

Germany has entered an aging and younger society, and professional talents have emerged in all walks of life. Marin said that after the unity of the two Germans, Germany not only solved the problem of lack of labor, but also attracted a large number of skilled workers, especially engineers. In 1998, 16%of these countries had university degrees, while Germany's proportion was 15%. The Wall Street Journal states that Germany's labor force may be reduced by about 5 million in the next 10 years. Investigation by the German Machinery Engineering Industry Association in July shows that in the interviewed companies, nearly half of the German mechanical engineering companies complained that the shortage of skilled workers hindered production. This was the highest proportion since the record in 1991. Reports issued by the German Institute of Institute of Economics in Germany show that in the fields of mathematics, informatics, the problem of insufficient German talents is particularly serious. Two -thirds of German companies said that talents will have a serious impact on its operations in the next 5 years.

The dual -system training mechanism that established the foundation of "manufacturing in Germany" also has difficulties. "Global Times" reporter learned that this year's industries in Germany lacked apprentices. For the reason, young people now prefer to go to college. For decades, middle school graduates who have attended university in Germany only account for only one -third of all students, but this proportion has been increasing. Benny, who is currently studying at Berlin University of Technology, told the Global Times reporter that he began to be an apprentice in automobile companies, but later learned that engineers' income was 1/3 higher than technical income, so he decided to enter the university to study mechanical engineering.

In addition, innovation and relatively insufficient investment in infrastructure are also one of the problems facing the German economy. According to media reports such as the German "World News", the country has not carried out major reforms in the past 20 years, and major breakthroughs in technology and social innovation mainly come from the United States and Asia. The German economic management department and enterprises have attached great importance to debt reduction issues for decades, which has suppressed the improvement of investment. Data from the World Bank show that since the beginning of this century, Germany's net investment rate has been about 0.5%of the economy, which is lower than that of Western countries such as the United States (1.5%) and Italy (about 1%). Regarding the cause of this phenomenon, the German "Time" weekly analysis said that this is not lack of funds or the ability of state institutions, but the decisions made by elites to safeguard their vested interests.

Still strong competitiveness

In fact, as early as 2019, French President Macron said that the German economic model may have come to an end. However, some experts do not agree with this statement. Zhao Yongsheng told the Global Times reporter that whether it is Macron's argument or the recent views of some Western media, it is too much. He believes that Germany is the largest economy in the European Union and France is its competitors. Macron's mentality to the German economy is similar to many EU member states, especially Eastern European and Southern European countries. Because Germany's high -value -added heavy industrial and export economies are considered to be "robbed" business in other EU countries, it has caused dissatisfaction. According to British media reports, more products sold by Germany to European neighbors are more than purchased than purchased.

Zhao Yongsheng said that in recent years, because of the impact of the international environment and epidemic, it is not just Germany, but almost all export -oriented and semi -exit -oriented economies have been challenged. The Wall Street Journal mentioned that during the global financial crisis in 2008, Germany also experienced a short but severe economic recession, but as the company changed its strategy, the German economy rebounded sharply. According to French media, Germany is known for its recovery and reshaping self -ability. Although German export data is not good, some German officials have revealed that many German companies have had backlogs before, and they will be very busy in the next two years even without new orders.

"The discussion of the German economic model now pays more attention to the external environment, which is related to the German export economy." German Economist Alvede Kaiser told the Global Times reporter, but the German economy itself still has strong competition force. Kaiser added that in research and development, Germany's annual expenditure exceeds 100 billion euros. The number of patents reported by the European Patent Office last year ranked second in Germany, second only to the United States. Although Germany has encountered major challenges in the fields of digitalization, intelligent systems, e -commerce, etc., many of its technologies are leading the world, such as nanotechnology and biotechnology. In the fields of automotive engineering, machinery and equipment engineering, chemical industry and medical technology, Germany is also a leader. More importantly, Germany is also a maker of many international standards. This has achieved the initiative to export for "Made in Germany". Although Germany's unique dual -system training system has encountered some problems, it is still cultivating a large number of workers with strong technologies for enterprises. Kaiser believes that in the future, the biggest challenge of the German economy is "de -globalization", economic cold war, and protectionism. Therefore, Germany should cooperate with China and other countries to vigorously maintain globalization and international cooperation.

Faced with various challenges, German companies are also strengthening their actions. "Global Times" reporter recently entered the Audi Jorda Special Factory and saw Audi's new smart factories under the "Industry 4.0" strategy. The factory not only optimizes the quality of the parts by artificial intelligence, but also establishes an energy tracking system to promote energy saving through data analysis. Many German companies hope to become industry leaders through the reform model.

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