"American selfish behavior has caused the world to fall into economic recession."

In recent months, many countries have faced bleak economic data from the United States to Germany, from South Korea to Sri Lanka. What exactly caused the current global economic high inflation and low growth trend? What exactly caused such a serious damage to the global economy? Analysis generally believes that the United States, which holds the US dollar hegemony, is difficult to blame.

Smoflation is severe in major economies

The pessimism of global economic prospects is spreading. The World Bank President David Malpas said recently: "For many countries, recession will be difficult to avoid." Yi Xiaoyu, deputy director of the former World Trade Organization and former Deputy Minister of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the global economy has now Showing high inflation, high debt, high interest rates, and low growth trends, if the Russian -Ukraine conflict is expanding and long -term, it will inevitably increase the shortage of world energy and food, which will cause a global economic crisis. According to the latest prediction released by Citibank, 50%of the possibility of a global economy decline, and the economic recession will move from one region to another, and eventually affect the United States at the end of next year.

Known as the global economic "Golden Skin", South Korea has begun to report to the police: the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of Korea shows that in July, South Korean semiconductor shipments fell by 22.7%year -on -year. During the same period, South Korea's semiconductor inventory remained high, an increase of 80 year -on -year increased by 80 year -on -year %, The growth rate is the same as last month. This is in the past three years, Korean chip manufacturers have recorded the decline in factory shipments for the first time, highlighting that the demand for semiconductors as a global economic barometer has weakened globally.

Data from major economies have further exacerbated concerns of all parties.

According to data from the US Department of Commerce, the GDP in the second quarter of this year was calculated by 0.9%at the annual rate of annual rates, which shrinks for two consecutive quarters, constituting a technical recession in the usual sense. "Japan Economic News" pointed out that there have been 10 technological recessions in the United States since 1949, and have been officially identified as economic recession. American Consumer News and Business Channel reported that the US economy would fall into a serious decline in 2023.

"The European economy is about to enter the recession." Maria Demezi, the Institute of Economics of Brussels and the Global Economic Research Institute, predicted. Morgan Stanley expects the euro zone economy to fall into a recession in the fourth quarter. As the "leader" of the European economy, Germany's situation is not optimistic. According to the German Federal Bureau of Statistics, Germany's economic growth has completely stagnated in the second quarter of this year. The International Monetary Fund will significantly reduce the growth of the German economy at the end of July. It is predicted that the German economy will increase by 1.2%in 2022 and 0.8%in 2023.

"The global economy has entered a state of high inflation and low growth from a cycle. At present, the performance of major economies is worrying. The US economy has shrunk for two consecutive quarters, stagnation, and obvious decline; European countries foods; The price and energy price remain high, and the inflation rate of the euro area has reached a record high. In an interview with the People's Daily, researcher Chen Fengying said, "Most of the analysis believes that the global economy will fall into a decline in half a year or a year."

Caused by American selfish behavior

"This round of global economy declines, the source is in the United States. The United States is the leader of the world economy. The US dollar enjoys a dominant position in the global financial system, so the performance of the United States directly affects the world economy." Chen Fengying said.

Luo Siyi, former director of the Economic and Commercial Policy Department of the United Kingdom, pointed out that the current economic slowdown in the United States and rising inflation is due to the economic stimulus plan launched by the United States to cope with the economic recession caused by the new crown pneumonia. Economy causes destructive consequences. The United States tries to financing budget deficit through large -scale borrowing. At the same time, it expands currency supply on a large scale to achieve the purpose of stimulating consumption. However, the US move has greatly stimulated the economic demand side, but the supply side did not boost fixed investment, so that the supply side had little increase, and the result was that inflation rose sharply. Luo Siyi said that the inflation of the United States has spread to most of the world's economies, and the price of commodities rising sharply is the most direct response. "The price of commodities in the United States has risen more than tripled within two years, bringing a huge inflation shock to the entire world economy."

The British "Guardian" article believes that American selfish behavior has caused the world to fall into economic recession. According to the article, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, debt denominated in the US dollar has become an unbearable burden on countries around the world. Experts warn that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike exacerbated the global financial market turmoil. With the return of international funds to the United States, developing countries will face challenges such as stock market fluctuations, depreciation of local currency, rising interest on US dollar debt, and a significant increase in import raw materials.

In order to suppress inflation, the Federal Reserve announced the 75 -basis points of interest rate hikes at the end of July. This is the fourth interest rate hike this year and the second consecutive interest rate hikes 75 basis points. "Historically, the Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike is to cut leeks in the world. The recent interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve have led to global capital to flow into the United States. Some developing countries and emerging economies have even occurred. Chen Fengying said. According to data from the International Financial Association, in July, international investors withdrew from about $ 10 billion in funds from emerging industrial countries, which was already the fifth consecutive month of capital outflows greater than inflow.

In addition, the United States has imposed tariffs on other countries, and the gangs are ganged against other countries to impose economic sanctions, which has also severely damaged the world economy. Analysts believe that the European geopolitical crisis is delayed, and the EU blindly follows the anti -phase effects of the United States' economic sanctions on Russia, which has gradually appeared, which worsen the severe inflation situation in Europe.

The US "Eurasian Review" website pointed out that in order to pursue the US single -pole hegemony, the Bayeng government is bringing risks to the future economic stability of China, the West, Emerging Asia, and the global south of the world. The article pointed out that before Trump launched the trade war, China had become the engine of the world economy. The most important thing is that China also drives the advancement of many small and medium economies in the world. Now, the Bayeng government has turned the friction with China into another cold war, making the world economy endangered the abyss. Due to the global interdependence relationship, any intention to destroy China's stability may destroy the living standards of Western countries for decades, and at the same time turn the most vulnerable economy into a failed country.

The Federal Reserve is still helping

“这是一次很特殊的世界经济胀、滞、衰调整，暂时还看不到解决的希望。问题的根源在于美国把经济问题政治化，用意识形态划线。”陈凤英说，“比如，要To solve the European energy problem, it is necessary to solve the problem of Russia and Ukraine's conflict; to solve the supply chain problem, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation with China. However, the United States has been making noise to restrict Russia's restrictions and decoupling in China. Under the circumstances, it is difficult for countries to achieve cooperation in response to the global economic recession. "

"Although the financial crisis in 2008 was fierce and destructive, fortunately, the major economies at that time showed the political will of cooperation and urgently established the G20 cooperation mechanism to lead the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Carrying out multilateral cooperation with the World Trade Organization eventually curbed the further spread of the financial crisis. "Yi Xiaoyun said at the Ninth China Enterprise Globalization Forum at the Ninth China Enterprise Globalization Forum at the China (Beijing) Services Trade Fair in 2022. Today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, today, it is said that today, today, today, today, today, today, today, it is said that today, today, today, today, today, today, today, it is said that today, today, today, today, today, today, today, it is said that today, The three major institutions responsible for global economic governance have severely divided the three major institutions of the Forest, and the G20, which is the last line of defense to respond to the economic crisis, is almost impossible to operate normally. In this case, once the financial crisis that affects the world, countries will inevitably be adjacent to the barriers as the Great Depression of the 1930s and the barriers of building a barrier. The consequences are unimaginable.

To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will not stop. Fed Chairman Powell recently said that the Fed plans to continue to raise interest rates to reduce the inflation rate to 2%, but at the same time warned that it might bring "some pain" to American families and companies. "Next, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. It is not sure when it will be increased and what is the frequency of interest rate hikes." Chen Fengying said.

The British "Guardian" article said that there was no sign of indicating that the United States would change its direction. The Fed knows that inflation originated from insufficient commodity supply. Only the government can solve this problem, but it seems that this does not prevent it from pushing its economy with other countries to decline.

Emerging economies and developing countries are under tremendous pressure. According to the Japan Economic News, the longer the US dollar appreciation and the duration of the US interest rate hike, the faster the crisis will spread. The World Bank warns: "Many emerging countries and developing countries have high debt, finance and frequent project revenue and expenditure deficits that are caused by financial pressure, which may lead to further slowing economic recovery."

Some experts pointed out that the global economic growth rebounded to 6.1 % last year, but nearly half of the country's economy has not returned to 2019, and nearly 90 % of the country's two -year compound growth rate is lower than the five -year trend before the epidemic. Ceith Carpenter pointed out, "Even if we avoid the global economic recession, it is difficult to see the trend before economic activities have returned to the new crown pneumonia." (Reporter Zhang Hong)

Original title: Global economic recession risk intensified (global hotspot)

"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (September 13, 2022)

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