Britain, winter is approaching

Author:Look at the think tank Time:2022.09.09

On September 6, with the approval of the Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, former 47 -year -old former British Foreign Minister Elizabeth Tellas took over the phase. In just a few years, the British Conservative Prime Minister has changed four.

Faced with the "hell start" of heavy crises such as economy, energy, medical care, internal affairs and diplomacy, Tras vowed to "break through the storm."

However, many people believe that Britain is ushered in the "worst prime minister", and British society is difficult to return ...

Text | Guo Shuang Watch Think Tank Researcher in London

Edit | Pu Haiyan Watch Think Tank

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Long interview

This is "one of the longest job interviews", and Tellas made a speech after being elected as the new party of the Rules Conservative Party on September 5.

On September 5, 2022, in London, UK, Tellas waved his hand while leaving the Conservative Campaign headquarters.

Since Boris Johnson announced his resignation from the head of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister on July 7, the two -month British Prime Minister campaign ended. Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the British Parliament's Conservative Member Group, "1922 Committee", confirmed on September 5th that more than 140,000 Conservative Party members' voting results showed that Tellas defeated 57.4%of the vote rate. Competitors, former Financial Ministers, Rich Sunak, were elected as the first new party of the ruling party.

According to the convention, Johnson and Tellas saw Queen Elizabeth II in Scotland on the 6th. Johnson submitted his resignation to the Queen and was approved, and stepped down as British Prime Minister.

In the last speech of the Prime Minister, Johnson did not detailed a series of complex dilemma faced by his successor Trassem. On the contrary, he focused on emphasizing his achievements as the Prime Minister, including vaccines during Brexit and new crown pneumonia. In the Ukraine, Ukraine provides early weapons and economic recovery after the epidemic of new coronary pneumonia. Johnson compares himself as a booster rocket that has completed the task. "I will now gently enter the atmosphere and fall into a distant and blurred corner on the Pacific Ocean in an invisible way." Johnson also pointed out that it will be in that The "difficult period" provides "enthusiastic support" for the Steras administration.

Subsequently, after being approved by Queen Elizabeth II, Tellas took over as British Prime Minister and became the third female Prime Minister after Margaret Satcher and Tresa May. The fourth prime minister over the past.

"Breaking the storm" is just a slogan?

Just like the crisis facing the United Kingdom, nearly 5 pm local time on September 6, local time, waiting for Tellas to make a lecture at No. 10 Tang Ning Street, which was in his job.

In the Victory Speech, Tras used three "Deliver". She said, "We will fulfill their promises and do not bear what they want. In 2024, they brought a great victory for Deliver." In the first speech after serving the Prime Minister the next day, Tras once again stated that she would be the three major crisis -Deliver On, and vowed to "break the storm".

Many Economists in the UK bluntly stated on the live broadcast that the number of British problems was solved. The slogan of the shouting "Deliver, Deliver, Deliver" cannot solve the actual problems. Is the key issue.

In an inauguration speech, Tras stated that Britain was facing many crisis and emphasized the three best priorities to solve the problem:

The first is to deal with the economic crisis through the "bold plan" tax reduction and reform;

Second, it will be committed to solving the energy crisis and "long -term problems in energy supply", and said that the problem of solving public energy bills will be solved within this week;

The third is to respond to the medical crisis and ensure that people can see it in time when they need it.

However, critics pointed out that the new Prime Minister did not mention the various crises such as climate change and unemployment in the UK. Tellas's election is just an election result that has no choice. In an interview with the local people in the British media, many people said that they did not have much hope for the new Prime Minister, but they just hoped that Tellas' performance would be "better than Johnson". The situation in the UK has improved.

This year's election voting rate was 82.6%, with a total of 14,1725 Conservative Party members voted. In other words, less than 0.3%of the British population determines the candidate of the Prime Minister. The British people raised a large -scale billboard in the traffic of the Prime Minister's Mansion, the cats of traffic, and called on people to support the cat as the Prime Minister.

After the British Opposition Party Party, Kill Stammer, said after learning that Tellas wins, stated that the Conservative Party had brought low wages, high prices and living costs to Britain for 12 years. He urged Trasse to explain how to fulfill the election commitment to improve the economic situation, and urges the new government to actively respond to the huge pressure on the British national health care system system.

"The most difficult winter"

Next month, the British energy bill will rise by 80%, and the actual salary is lower than 2007. The cost of living in the public has increased sharply. Foreign investment has gradually disappeared since 2016. The trade deficit is at the worst level since the record. It may cause inflation rates to exceed 15%. Since the winter of last year, Britain's inflation rate has remained high. From April to July this year, a new high has been refreshed in 40 years. At the same time, interest rates are rising, and the pound is depreciating. It is a huge challenge whether the new Prime Minister can be wise and timely. On August 26, 2022, a smart meter at a resident of London, England. The rise in British energy bills will lead to a sharp increase in living costs. Figure ｜ IC Photo

The results of the polls released by the British Public Observation Corporation on the evening of September 4 showed that 74%of the respondents believed that rising living costs was an important task for the new Prime Minister of the UK. The rise in prices has led to the rapid decline in the actual income of the people, which in turn has intensified the contradiction between labor and management. Police in many industries such as the British railway and ports have recently held strikes to increase their salary. Researcher Kins Baker, a researcher at the University of Karina, the UK, predicts that due to the frequent strikes and the threat of trade union will launch more strikes, Britain may face the worst peaceful crisis since 1926.

What's more, the winter is approaching, and the surge in energy prices has brought a huge impact on all walks of life and people in the UK. Most people are unbearable to the increase in energy prices. In contrast, Germany rely more on energy supply from Russia, but has introduced response measures early. Although the price of residents has risen, the increase is not as powerful as Britain.

To this end, the Telas drafted plan plans to control the annual electricity bill of an ordinary British family at £ 2,500 or less than the £ 130 billion.

In addition, the British public domain, which is called "collapse" by the British media, has also brought huge challenges to the new Prime Minister. Under the epidemic of new coronary pneumonia, the British medical system is under pressure, the waiting time for seeing a doctor is too long and the shortage of medical staff is becoming more serious, and the energy crisis makes this situation worse. The British National Health Care System Federation has recently warned that if the government is not appropriately subsidized, in order to save expenses to cope with the significant increase in winter energy costs, medical institutions may be forced to reduce nursing services.

In fact, in this aging country, even before the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, health expectations are the lowest in Europe, and 6.7 million people are now waiting for hospitalization. Matthew Taylor, CEO of the British National Medical Service System Alliance (NHS Confederation), predicts that the next winter will be "the most difficult winter ever." Ian Berger, a professor at the European Institute of the Institute of European School of Political Economics in London, believes that the medical system may have major problems in winter, which will be a "timing bomb" for the new government. Stewart Wilker-Higgs, a professor of political science at Liverpool University in the United Kingdom, pointed out that almost all public services are facing difficulties, the public is difficult to see a doctor, and many industries strike ... Tillas will face severe tests as the Prime Minister.

In addition to a series of domestic and people's livelihood issues, Tras will also face many challenges in the diplomatic field. Among them, how to deal with the relationship with Russia is a major issue. After the Ukrainian crisis was upgraded, the Johnson government strongly supported Ukraine in politics and military, and actively joined the West's all -round sanctions on Russia. After being elected Prime Minister, Tellas also called Ukrainian President Zeleki.

However, Western sanctions on Russia, especially energy sanctions, are the main causes of the European energy crisis and inflation. The British "Guardian" pointed out that with a series of consequences such as tight energy supply and rising prices, Trams may face different voices from the Conservative Party and a wider range on the Ukrainian issue.

Over time, it is a question of whether the new Prime Minister can make more people willing to pay for Ukraine to pay more and longer. And in order to maintain the Ukrainian Alliance, persuading some of the countries with loose positions also pay the price.

How to deal with the "Northern Ireland Protocol" and how to deal with the relationship with the EU is also an important issue to solve. This liptest is part of the Brexit "Brexit" agreement. According to the agreement, the Bei Ai area stays in the European Single Market and the EU Tariff League to prevent the "hard boundaries" on the Island on the island. Some products from the British Island from Britain need to receive customs and border security inspections from the British Island. Essence

After the British side signed the "Brexit" agreement, the meaning of "regret" on the issue of northern love was constantly expressed. Tellas submitted a bill to the British Parliament as a Foreign Minister in June this year and officially announced unilaterally to unilaterally modify the specific content of the "Northern Ireland Protocol" part of the content. plan.

In the campaign, Tellas announced that once he was elected, he would overthrow the North Ai clause. It is reported that Tellas wants to promote the Parliament to pass a bill to revoke the "Northern Ireland Protocol" signed by the United Kingdom and the European Union. Although this will violate international law, it may be beneficial to Tras because it marks what the British wants to do What can you do. Therefore, at the same time as congratulations to Tellas, the Chairman of the European Commission Feng Delin made it clear that he hoped that Tras would comprehensively abide by the "Brexit" agreement. Some analysts warn that if Tras promotes the amendment to the decision, it will lead to tight relations between Britain and the European Union and even trigger a trade war. Torresa May went to Scotland on the first day of taking office. Johnson arranged a Special Conference on Scotland within a week. It is unclear where the new Prime Minister will put Scotland affairs. What currently knows is that Stergin, a local leader in Scotland, has clearly requested another independent referendum in 2023. In October this year, the British Supreme Court will make a second independent referendum on the second independent referendum without the authorized by the National Assembly. No matter what the result, the Scottish issue will be a headache for the Prime Minister.

The primary challenge that is difficult to control

In fact, one of the primary challenges facing Trams is to consolidate her position among the 357 members of the party, most of them do not support her to run for the party leader. On the day of the election of the new party leader, two members of the cabinet announced their resignation. Faced with the internal and external challenges, Tras needed a strong ruling party to support it, but from Johnson's hand in charge of the council to lead 80 seats in the council, Tras faced not only multiple crises, but also one It may not support her new agenda and difficult parliament party.

Although he won the party leader competition with 57%of the voting rate and leading his opponent's 14 percentage points, the party identity obtained by Tras was not as predicted as some people predicted. A minister who supports her pointed out that "such a result makes her work more difficult." A senior government insider said: "The Conservative Party Parliament Party has become almost unavailable. They treat Boris like this, and they may also treat Liz (Tellas) like this. They have no discipline and have no interest to do well. Tough decisions."

Despite the Win -election speech on Monday, Tras promised to use "all outstanding talents" in the party, including "outstanding" parliamentarians. But here the comments believe that the important criteria for choosing cabinet members in Tellas are "loyalty."

According to a poll issued by the Public Observatory on September 1st, 74%of the respondents believed that the Conservative Party split. How to bridge the differences in the party will also be a problem facing Tras. As the British "Guardian" pointed out that Trasse needs to respond to challenges from the Conservative Party, "some rebels of Conservative Party rear members are planning to drive her down."

Johnson's supporters warned that managing Conservative Party members may be the "most difficult challenge" facing Trams, especially in her first 100 days. During this period, the crisis of living costs will dominate and must make difficulties. , Perhaps unpopular economic decisions. A conservative party strategyist said: "She will have to be in power if there is no major party in the parliament."

In addition, the 109 Conservative Party members who were elected in 2019 can be described as the most difficult group of Johnson to deal with, partly because their ideology and geographical composition are many. In addition, there is also a conservative party councilor. Because it is unlikely that there is a prospect of further serving as a ministerial position, many people will think that there is no need to support the new government. In addition, the European research team composed of hard -line Brexit may also become a group against Trams.

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