Ukraine began to turn into a attack, or is Russia falling into the deadlock of "long -term war"?

Hermuson siege city war is the focus of the southern war in the future

Hermuson, the capital of Hermusong, Ukraine, is an old city founded in the 18th century. It still remains the historical style of the central fortress of the Black Sea Fleet during the Tsarist period. On the west of the city is an endless vast farmland. The winding of the Grez River on the north forms a natural barrier, and the east side is close to the wide Dieber River.

Since August, the sound of artillery and fire here has gradually been dragging. Following Kimi, Halkov, Marwol, and Nortston, the Russian city of Ukraine, which was quickly occupied after the "special military operation" at the end of February, was launched, becoming another tug -of -war between Russia and Ukraine to launch a tug -of -war Focus on the battlefield. As of September 6, local time, a counterattack of the Ukraine had a counterattack in the western suburbs and southern suburbs of Helson, and a small scale had occurred in the northern part of the urban area. According to Tas Society, around 22 pm on September 6, more than ten explosions sounded over Hermuson, and missiles flew over the sky.

Different from the previous siege warfare, this time, the attacking offensive side was the Ukrainian army. From the perspective of the Ukrainian government and some Western analysts, this means the arrival of the "turning point". Ukrainian President Zelei, who personally announced the counterattack, even claimed that the war would end with "the liberation of Crimea". But since July, this "transparent war in the era of media live broadcast" was suddenly blocked. The blurred war reports, the specific combat locations that are no longer announced, the front line of the media shielded, and the war zone blocking the communication signal, making the battle process full More suspense. And more analysis believes that the so -called "turning point" is not a shift in Ukraine, but this battle that has been in the "long -term war" for more than half a year.

On July 14, the Russian airborne troops on the front. Figure/People's Vision

"Battle of no longer live"

On August 9, the Crimean Air Force Base continued to explode. Prior to this, the international community's focus on the war on the South Line of Ukraine was before the "special military operation" of the Russian army on February 24. Earlier this year, the U.S. government and Western think tanks warned that the Russian army may enter the provinces and regions near Crimea, which are near Crimea, and the largest port city of Odessa, the largest port cities. In 2021, the amphibious forces of the Russian army gathered in a large -scale landing exercise in Crimea, which deepened the western world's conjecture on the "flashing of Odessa" in the Western world and turning Ukraine into "inland countries".

In the early morning of February 24th, like other front lines, the southern Military Region troops across the Crimean and Hermuson, "almost no fierce battle", quickly controlled the Hermuson city with 300,000 people. He was pushed to the border between Hermusong and pushed the Ukraine hinterland Dieberlo Peter and Nicholaev. However, "Flashing Odessa" did not happen. At that time, the action that attracted more attention from the international community was the Russian army's attack on the Ukraine capital Kyiv.

After April, the Russian army concentrated on the southern Mary Upur in the southern town of Donzk. Hermuson, which was stalemate, became a wing battlefield. After the end of May 20th, Mali Ubol Besieged City, the focus of the Russian and Ukraine's army turned to the Ugosk region in the northern part. Western media regarded this as the "Donbas decisive battle", and the south line was on the south line for a long time. Stay away from the state of the center of the battlefield.

On April 18, a soldier in the trenches between the Rougosk and Donetsk region. Picture/Surging Image

But in fact, in late July, when the main force of the Russia and Ukraine was still in the Ultra -Pak Halmut town in Donzk, the Ukraine had conducted a small -scale counterattack test on the South Line. On July 23, on the river only 10 kilometers away from Hermuson, the Ukraine attacked the Darova Bridge for the first time, trying to destroy the Russian army supply line. On the same day, a senior official of the US Department of Defense revealed to the media that the Ukrainian army recaptured some small villages in Hermuson from July 15th to 22nd. However, neither Russia did not confirm the name of the specific village.

At that time, the outside world was generally immersed in the new form of the "live war", and few people expected the specific battle location and process of the Southern Line war. The US Military Think Tank "Institute of War" later pointed out that the main battlefield of the Ukraine's "Southern Line Counterattack" is in the rural areas of Herusong, and the communication is not as developed as the Kyiv suburbs, mainly "unlikely to spread the movement of the two armies to the outside world. "Small settlements with the situation of war" make it difficult for the outside world to track and confirm the dynamics of the front line through social media. In the "Daily Battle Briefing" on July 23, the "Daily Warfare Briefing" was still regarded as the distant wing of the "Donbas Decisive Battle", which was slightly mentioned at the end of the full text.

At about 3 pm on August 9, a series of severe explosions broke the peace of the Russian Air Force Base located in Crimea Saki. Since 2014, this has been the stable rear of the Russian army. Since February this year, the Russian fighter plane starts from the Sakki base about 200 kilometers from Hermuson, almost controlling the entire black sea coast to make air power.

The reason for the explosion of the Sakki base is still no conclusion. Ukrainian government officials sometimes claimed that this was a masterpiece of long -range missiles, and sometimes claimed that the Ukrainian special forces penetrated into Crimea. Russia stated that this was an accident caused by accidental explosions, and the Russian Air Force did not lose multiple advanced fighters as the Ukraine said.

What's more important is that the second day of the explosion, Ukraine President Zeleziski issued a proud saying: The conflict "began in Crimea, and it will end with the liberation of Crimea." Faced with the reporter's question of "whether to start the southern line", officials around Zellennki said frankly that "can say so." On August 11, the South Line Command of the Ukrainian Army released the war report to combat the 49th airborne division of the Russian Russian army and the 126th Guards Coastal Defense Travel Command. This is regarded as a clearer signal: As the senior commanders of the Russian army often "lead the command", the Ukraine has tried to fix the high -level command post of the Russian front line before Kyiv, Chelnigov and other places. "Southern Line Counterattack"

Looking back on the "turning point" period from the end of July to August, there are few information about the southern line war between Russia and Ukraine during the "turning point" period. Some analysts sort out the clues of the Ukraine to carry out large -scale counterattacks. Starting from attacking the Darova Bridge on July 23, the Ukrainian Army frequently conducted a traffic attack, trying to cut off the traffic connection of the Russian army on both sides of the Dieber River. The key point of the east of Hermuson City Antonovsky Highway Railway Bridge was attacked three times in ten days. The Ukraine also repeatedly attacked the key railway sites and airports along Holson to Zapolo, with a view to affecting the mobilization efficiency of the Russian South Line.

On July 5th, the unpaid shell on the streets. Figure/People's Vision

Since late July, the Ukrainian intelligence department has also publicly collected the Russian army information from the residents of the occupied area, including the address coordinates of the Russian army deployment point, the details of the traffic road network, and the identity information of the Ukrainian "cooperation" of the local and Russia Wait.

It is particularly noteworthy that the battle reports of both Russia and Ukraine show that the United States and European countries assist Ukraine's "Hamas" rocket launcher system, which is first applied to the South Line battlefield just formed. traffic system. According to Tas Society, on September 5th alone, the Russian army intercepted 34 US -made rockets in the Hermuson area and shot down 4 US -operated missiles. As the most advanced team in the Ukraine system, the drone forces have also been mainly launched on the South Line battlefield. Since July 31, the Crimean is frequently attacked.

At present, the largest "results" obtained by Ukrafe on the South Line uses the "Battle" of the use of US -made weapons is to attack the Russian military trains about 47 kilometers southeast of Hermuson on July 30 200 people were injured. Although the attack was not fully confirmed, the Russian army repeatedly reported that the traffic facilities around Hermuson were attacked by "Hamas" and began to strengthen the air defense fire and radar deployment of key roads and bridges in August. The first crackdown on the Ukraine on the South Line exceeded the Russian army's expectations.

However, more than half a month after the "official announcement" of Ukraine in August, Hermone's first -line Ukraine made progress slowly. In the meantime, the Ukrainian Command Department once announced the "recovery" seven residents, but did not disclose specific place names. The Russian army continued to be published in the goal of Hermuson's front -line shelling Dieberlo Peter Rovesk's Ukraine, and announced that it entered the territory of Nicholaev, showing that the Ukraine has not been the Russian army from these two states and Hehe. The front line of Er Song is driven away.

For the reason, the Russian army was realized by the end of July that the Ukrainian army would have "big moves" on the southern line. Western intelligence agencies said that starting on August 1, the Russian army successively transferred the elite troops in the northern part of Donetsk in the main battlefield of the "Donbas" to the south line. As the key maneuverability of the Russian army, 90 % of the Russian Airborne Forces, which was the main force of Kyiv, have been deployed to the South Line. After August 10, the South Line war was upgraded, and the large -scale offense of the Russian army in Donetsk had decreased. The two sides remained in a stalemate in Bachmum for about a month. At the same time, after the "official announcement" counterattacked, the UAV used the drone to attack the Black Sea Fleet headquarters and the Red Strait Bridge behind Crimea.

In order to break the deadlock, on August 29, the Ukrainian Commander announced that it opened a large -scale counterattack, intending to break through the first front and approach the city of Helisonon. In the next week, the Ukraine announced many times to "recover" the residents and disclosed some place names and video materials. On September 4, Zeleiski said in his speech that "the Ukrainian flag is returning to where they should be." Western analysis is therefore regarded as a new stage of August 29. It is also from this day that the first part of the "Institute of War" has focused on the "southern line counterattack", which exceeds the "Donbas decisive battle" in length.

The information released by Russia and pro -Russian armed forces showed that the war has been upgraded since August 29, but it is still a small -scale tentative attack. The senior officials of the "Lugusk People's Republic" of the Russian Russia told the media that the Ukraine mobilized multiple battalions -level combat groups. The Hermuson authorities also issued a notice requesting residents in the western region. The person in charge of Stramusov told Tas Society on September 4 that the state's referendum plan to join Russia will be suspended due to "security issues".

Regarding the battle of the South Line, Russia and Ukraine hold the word. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly called on the media to avoid reports or prediction counterattacks to avoid "misleading". Senior Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stated that the Ukraine did not have large -scale mechanized forces, so they chose to continue to destroy the Russian transportation network and command and logistics system, and then find opportunities. The Ukrainian army believes that the South Line war situation can be turned into a comprehensive counterattack in August, which has explained the success of the tactics. "I can't say a huge change," the former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Zagrod Newque said recently. "But we are destroying the ability of the Russian army to control our territory." Russian media and some analysts mocked the U -military counterattack Is it a "suicide operation" or a proactive attack on the hinterland of Ukraine or offensive to the South Line Russian army to take the initiative. The Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly emphasized that the Urpicious Army has never established positions along the Hermuson border, nor does it break through any key lines and strongholds of the Russian army. On September 5, Tas News reported in a report that the Ukrainian government has already lost control of the entire Hermuson territory.

On April 8th, Gostomeli Airport, 20 kilometers away from Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, was the largest aircraft-225 transport aircraft in the world. Figure/People's Vision

Hulson "must have a battle"

The main battlefield of Russia and Ukraine turned to the south line. In fact, it was doomed when the "Donbas decisive battle" process was just over half.

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Donbass region composed of Donetsk and Lugusk is adjacent to Russia. The main residents are Russians. They are commonly used in Russian, and their political positions are the most "pro -Russian". As the Ukrainian government and the society "turn towards Europe" as a whole, and the Ukrainian national awareness gradually awakened, under the effect of many factors in the internal and external parts, the Donbass seeking an independent separation organization broke out in the Ukrainian government in 2014. In February this year, the Kremlin announced the independence of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Lugusk People's Republic". "Special Military Operations" launched by the Russian army on February 24.

In this context, the Donbas area is regarded as the "decisive battlefield" by the outside world. The entire occupation of Donedsk and Landusk was considered by the West as a prerequisite for Russia to accept the ceasefire peace talks. At the beginning of the South Line war, it was the time when the Russian army was completely occupied by Lugiak. Hermone has become a new focus, and does not mean that the "Donbas decisive battle" is over. At present, the Russian army is still further deeply penetrated into the Doned Ukraine Control Zone in the direction of north and south, but the scale and progress of the use of soldiers have weakened significantly.

Earlier, the Russian army controlled Ligusk only for about a month. Belsinov, a senior official of the "Donetsk People's Republic", also said at the end of July that it is expected to occupy the entire Donetsk Prefecture by the end of August. But a month later, the Russian and Ukraine were still seeing a saw in the suburbs of Bakhmut, which were closest to the Lumhusk border, to the Donetsk. Therefore, some US retired generals believe that if "Donbas decisive" is regarded as the real main line of Russia and Ukraine, the first purpose of the Ukraine's "southern line counterattack" is to disrupt the rhythm of Moscow and force the Russian army to transfer The force made the Russian army unable to fully grasp the initiative of the battlefield.

However, people close to the Ukrainian government believe that the Ukraine's large -scale counterattack in Hermone is a plan that develops before the start of the "Donbas decisive battle". The most important goal is to "move forward" the ceasefire line.

On May 8th, Maliwol was damaged by a building. Figure/People's Vision

After the start of the "Special Military Operations" on February 24, Russia and Ukraine had conducted many rounds of conversation, but it was completely interrupted after the "Bucha" incident in April. In the past few months, a popular view of Ukraine believes that as long as the Russian army loses the possibility of "fast battle", the two sides can return to the negotiating table. In the words of Ukraine's former Foreign Minister Pavilo, "The real negotiation will start when the war is in a deadlock."

However, returning to the negotiating table also means that the "actual ceasefire line" is likely to become a "actual control line." Former Ukrainian government officials who do not want to be named told China News Weekly that the worst results that the Zelene government can accept includes "Donetsk, Lugusk, and Crimea." In addition, Halkov, Hermone, Zapolo and other territories are best to "recover" before the ceasefire.

The United States "Washington Post" analyzed that if the Ukraine failed to "recover" Hermone before the ceasefire peace talks, Mosco would not only get the two "Russian Zhanzun" two "Russian Zhanzun" of Crimea and Donbas, "Land Bridge" and can threaten Ukraine hinterland and Odessa at any time. Conversely, if Ukraine can advance the ceasefire line to the border between Helong and Crimea, it will not only cut off the connection between Crimea and Donbas at any time, but also threatened the Russian Black Sea fleet command on the peninsula And Air Force Base.

Both Russia and the West have voices that the South Line war is "as important as a political level and a military level." The former commander of the European and American Army, Hochis, predicts that the Ukraine's choice of the Russian army's relatively weak Hermuson launched a counterattack. The fear of cannot be defeated. The Russian Defense Minister Sho Gulu also recently pointed out that Zelei Sky planning the southern line was only to create a fantasy in the "Western curator", that is, the Ukrainian army can carry out effective counterattacks. But in turn, Russian military expert Igor Gilkin also "reminded" Zelei: If the "Southern Line counterattack" is a "strong psychological blow" of the Kyiv authorities, and it has long been lost to the morale of the Ukrainian army. Essence Regardless of the purpose of the Urpical Council, the Russian army reduced the offensive against the Donetsk -controlled area and concentrated its strength to the south line, showing that Russia was not ready to "make" Hermone. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated as early as June that the geographical scope of "special military operations" "is not limited to Donetsk and Lugusk, as well as Heruson, Zapolo and other areas" " Essence On September 1st, the Civil Affairs Chief of Hermuson authorities Straomov once again emphasized: "It is impossible to return the Hermuson area to Ukraine." At this point, Hermone "must have a battle", which is difficult to avoid.

On April 5th, Donbas was turned around in front of a destroyed bridge. Figure/People's Vision

How to spend winter?

After losing the strategic town such as Maruri Ubol and Nortston, Hermuson was the first time that the Urpot had tried to recapture major cities. For the Ukrainian army, if they want to really get the results on the South Line, they must seize the city of Hermuson to pass through the Nieber River. Therefore, most of the current analysis believes that Hermuson's siege city war is the focus of the Southern Line war in the next time, and its success or failure will also determine the fate of the "South Line Counterattack" and even the entire Urban counterattack plan.

Jack Waterlin, a senior researcher at the Royal Institute of National Defense in the United Kingdom, recently said that siege "may be a mistake." The Washington Post quoted a retired general and pointed out that this would be a "hard battle." Some senior Western military officials estimate that the Russian army may have 20,000 troops in Helisonon and its surrounding areas, and has the advantages of air control and firepower. The Ukraine will attack a "experienced defense" with disadvantages.

Faced with the doubts from Western allies, a number of high -level Ukrainian government publicly stated that the Ukraine will continue the previous "successful experience" and continue to break the Russian army traffic and logistics systems to make Hulson a lone city without rushing to quickly occupy the city. Area. The question is, does the Urpicious attack ability exceed the recovery ability of the Russian army? The "War Research Institute" compared to satellite images to find that since the end of July, the Russian army can often be opened to traffic the next day. After three rounds of attacks, the Ukrainian army really blocked the Anthonovsky Highway Bridge on July 27. However, the next day the Russian army built a ferry and floating bridge under the bridge to continue material transportation. The Drifka Bridge, which was destroyed by the Ukrainian army, could still be partially connected by the end of August.

After obtaining the "blessing" of the more advanced weapons in the West, why is the Urpicious Army still difficult to form effective firepower strike capabilities? Kobeman, director of the Russian project of the New American Security Center, pointed out that from Soviet weapon to US -made weapons "is a big change", the Ukraine has only received equipment and basic personnel training, but in a short period of time, it does not have the Western army. The artillery combat system is even difficult to achieve the fire power suppression of the camp.

Waterlin asked other questions: the Urpicious Army chose "Yang Geng to avoid weaknesses" to attack the relatively fragile logistics traffic line of the Russian army. The reason why the Ukrainian army gave up counterattack. Does the Ukraine be able to build and protect temporary facilities such as floating bridges and ferry to transport ammunition, fuel and heavy equipment to the opposite shore to participate in combat? Can the Ukraine's most dependent artillery troops successfully cross the river and continue to provide fire support?

In addition, from the global consideration, the Elite Source of the Ukraine is more limited than the Russian army, but the Hermone battlefield is not the real "main storyline." The "War Research Institute" predicts that the Russian army has recently strengthened the fire attack in Donetsk, which may force the Ukrainian government to concentrate on the "decisive battlefield" of the east line to the east line. The battle between the Halkov and the other end of the north line and the other end of the south line are also dispersed the attention of both Russia and Ukraine.

On June 7, two boys swinging in front of a residential building in Boluojiang, Kyiv, Ukrainian. Photo/Visual China

During the Lugusk war in June to July, the Ukraine retreated and actively transferred according to the advantages of the terrain. While consuming the opponent, he preserved the main force and successfully launched a counterattack on the South Line. But at the same time, Ukraine has lost about 21 % of territory, equivalent to three Estonia. Now, Zelezi must make a choice: before the winter of energy fuel shortage and not suitable for large -scale operations, is it adhering to the Donedsk no longer retreating, or focus on the "Hulson attack city war". Intersection

"Hostility" on the road

How will the Battle of Hermuson and the Ukraine enter a local counterattack, will it affect the overall Ukrainian crisis? Stephen Wolf, a professor of international security professor in Birmingham University in the United Kingdom, believes that if the "Donbas decisive battle" is in confrontation at the end of July, the Russian front line has maintained a long stalemate trend, although Russian defense chief Shoagu pointed out Russia pointed out Russia The slow development of the army was "for humanitarian considerations", but in Ukraine and the West, "people generally believe that the Russian army has been forced to transfer to strategic defense." However, the situation of "falling into a deadlock can restart the peace talks." Another analysis pointed out that in this context, the "southern line of counterattacks" of the Ukraine may further solidify the hostile relationship between the Western world and Moscow. From the perspective of the Ukrainian government, the key cause of the turnover of the war situation is that Western military assistance is effective. "Now I would think that if there are more weapon assistance and economic assistance before February 24th, can they avoid war?" China News Weekly said.

Today, further seeking military assistance upgrades is still the main direction of the Zezelki government. A proposed solution is that Europe and the United States no longer adopt a regular release of specific equipment lists, but directly formulate a structural assistance plan for the next two years with the Ukrainian government. Considering the "coldest winter" caused by the energy crisis or further changes in European public opinion, some mainstream political parties, including the "EU Third Country" Italy, have issued a voice to increase assistance to Ukraine. A package of agreement to avoid the uncertainty that military assistance may face next. Some people who support this motion even believe that in order to "completely eliminate the fantasies of Russia on the West will reduce assistance", they can consider incorporating advanced fighters in long -term aid programs.

However, Marvin Carb, a senior researcher at the Brucks Society, pointed out that even if the Western sustainable military aid, the Ukrainian population is less than one -third of Russia, and the economic scale is only one -nineth of Russia. Maintaining long -term military confrontation is still questionable. In his opinion, the actual expectation of the West is not "reviving Ukraine", but to allow the number of deaths and injured veterans to increase with the time of conflict. In the 1980s, the Soviet Union's encounters in Afghanistan. "

In the view of the Director -General of the Russian International Affairs Commission, the Ukrainian crisis still has to be resolved through peaceful channels, but this does not depend on the changes in the war situation. He told "China News Weekly", "Unfortunately, this conflict is not only a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also a conflict between Russia and the Western world. The West is not really inclined to achieve reconciliation. They want to punish them. Putin instead of realizing peace. As long as this concept continues, it is difficult to achieve any compromise between Moscow and Kyiv. "

While Russia accused Ukraine and the Western world "hostile", the Ukrainian government believed that Russia was prepared for "long -term war". On August 25, Russian President Putin announced the largest expansion plan since the military reform in 2012. Military preparation has increased from 1.01 million to 1.15 million, and the total scale of armed forces exceeded 2 million. Some Ukraine and Western media said that the expansion of the army was a supplementary measure adopted by the Russian army for the "huge loss" in the war, and it was also the latest "conventional war deterrence" for NATO. The Ukraine Intelligence Department also emphasized that Moscow is conducting a new round of "industrial mobilization", including expanding the production of military workers, legislation to require all enterprises to perform military orders, and to increase the expenditure budget of the Federal Military Commission in September of US $ 10 billion.

The "cycle upgrade" of the military means and tough policies of both Russia and Ukraine have been supported by the national poll data. Tas News reported on September 6 that the latest polls show that more than 70 % of the Russian people support "special military operations." During the same period, Ukraine's polls stated that 84 % of Ukrainians opposed any measures to concessions in any territory. In this context, Russia and Ukraine have publicly expressed their distrust on each other on issues such as "direct contact and cooperation" in the recently needed "direct contact and cooperation", and seeking the United Nations direct intervention. This is very different from the direct dialogue between the two parties to have bilateral dialogue or through the "third party" such as Turkey, which reflects the willingness to be in the lack of direct contact between the two parties. In the face of the common problem, they also seek a "no contact" plan.

"I am not very optimistic about the situation now, but I believe that this conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield." Cortinov, who was in Moscow, said, "I believe that the two parties will eventually negotiate to reach some imperfections and reach some imperfections But solution that can be stopped. "

On the other side, Korinovic, who was on Kyiv, also told China News Weekly that every war should end with an agreement. "I personally hope that at a certain time in the future, the two parties will return to the negotiating table, and some protocol will be signed."

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Edit: Xu Fangqing

Operation editor: Wang Lin

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