The new British Prime Minister may not be an iron lady, but she has to be a firefighting player

(Picture source: Oriental IC)

Ren Qi/Wen, as early as a week or even earlier, the British Prime Minister's dispute has been settled: the Foreign Minister in Johnson's Cabinet, Liz Truss, 47, overwhelmed the competition within the party. Colleagues who have a reputation for the epidemic -Risei Sunak, a 42 -year -old Minister of Finance, 42 -year -old Minister of Finance. On September 5th, in the official voting of the Conservative Party, Tellas became the new -conservative party leader with nearly 60 % of the votes, and officially became the third female prime minister in British history on September 6.

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Who is Tras? At least, her public image is not outstanding. When she visited Russia at the beginning of the year, she misunderstood Rostov and Volne in front of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov as Ukrainian territory. The recent British Internet has also circulated Tras's embarrassing speeches on various occasions. For example, she exaggeratedly stated that Britain's need to import cheese "a shame"; for example, she spoke a public speech of "Taoiseach" as "Tea Sock".

However, like her opponent Sonak, Tras also has the top educational background in the UK. Born in a professor family in 1975, she and her parents supported Labor and anti -nuclear political stances after adulthood. During her studies at Oxford University, she became the student leader of the Liberal Democratic Party. Before and after graduation in 1996, her political position was further turned right, and the Conservative Party was added. Before the first election in 2010, she spent a period of career in Shell and Cable Wireless. In 2014, she entered the cabinet for the first time in the Cameron era, and then went smoothly until she became the Prime Minister.

Tellas's phase undertakes Johnson, who was forced to step down. In July of this year, after the Conservative Vice Party whip Kiristifer Pinjo was exploded, more than 60 officials and prime ministers of the Johnson government "cut off" and resigned one after another, resulting in Johnson's announcement on July 7. From two months since then, Britain's phase has been hanging and unreasonable. Johnson temporarily stayed until Tellas officially took over as a party leader and joined the master of Tangning Street.

In London, many British people encounter are not very concerned about who the Prime Minister is. After all, the two -month -old government seems to be reluctant to use it. The decision to decide whether to take office this time is just the party members of the Conservative Party voted within the party. How many people are there in this group? According to data in 2019, the total number of conservative party members is within 200,000. Within a few years, the number of numbers will not be great. In other words, Tellas is just a prime minister selected by about 200,000 people. She also needs to show its administration after taking office to convince ordinary people and let them vote for the Conservative Party in the next election. Only in this way can she be a longer -term master of Tangning Street. The latest time in the next election is at the end of January 2025 -Tellas has only more than two years.

Although Tras may be just a transitional role, people are also paying attention to how she will deal with a series of crises. In early 2022, people were looking forward to recovering the economy after the epidemic ebb and recovering their growth. But now, although there are tourists everywhere on the streets of London, the unemployment rate has also dropped to the lowest 3.8%in recent years, and the actual anxiety of the public is not small at all.

"From the 10th of Tangning Street, Tras is busy with the fire." Times reporter Katy Balls analyzed in a comments a week ago. There is a series of difficulties in front of Tras, including the rapid rise in electricity bills and gas bills, inflation, and economic recession that may occur. In addition, there is a battle on the Eastern European Plain.

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Among them, the most related to ordinary people's lives is the energy bills in their hands. When Tras and opponent Sonak confronted the Prime Minister's throne, the headlines of major British newspapers and magazines were around their energy and economic policies: "Tellas still refused to promise to reduce bills", "Sunak did not think tax reduction reduction "It is useful", "Tellas suddenly turned around, but the promise was not enough" ...

The issue of bills originated from Britain's energy prices -the main reason is that natural gas has soared sharply this year, which has led ordinary people to bear extremely high energy prices. The biggest news in August is: Natural Gas and Electric Power Market Control Agency (OFGEM) announced that from October, the maximum upper limit of the family's annual energy bills was adjusted to £ 3549 -that is, the one -year electricity expenditure of a British family, the most extreme extreme extreme, the most extreme extreme Under the circumstances, it must reach about 28,000 yuan. At the end of last year, this number was only 1277 pounds. The electricity bill rose so fast that there was a fictional joke on the Internet: on a street that was worried about public security in North London, a passerby was stopped. He thought it was robbery. As a result, the other party handed a 7,000 pound of electricity bills The bill- "Please pay".

The reason for the rise in energy prices includes a large number of natural gas prices in European countries in the clouds of war, and also the British own natural gas production capacity. But what I have to mention behind this is the crisis of the British family energy retail system. Generally speaking, after the privatization reform of the Sachel era, Britain's power generation, power grid, and power retail were separated. Ordinary people need to choose a power supply and gas supply contract with a retail company. These retail companies actually depend on the same set of grids and natural gas pipelines, but they only purchase electricity and gas supply quotas at different prices, and then resold to the public. According to the free market theory, such a model constitutes competition, allowing the public to weigh the quality and price of service, and have the opportunity to buy low -cost energy sources. However, since 2021, with the sharp rise in energy prices, many energy retailers have collapsed in front of rapid fluctuations. In the United Kingdom, more than 30 retailers who provided low -cost energy to go bankrupt, which increased great pressure on the entire system. In order to avoid large -scale shocks, regulators can only constantly raise the maximum upper limit of bills to avoid more retailers bankruptcy. This means that retailers have also begun to increase the unit's electricity and gas prices, and increase the fees as much as possible to avoid losses. For ordinary people, the most intuitive feeling is: their energy retailers they paid suddenly went bankrupt, their bills were transferred from bankruptcy companies to another, and the price rose accordingly. Moreover, since this year, most of the prices provided by most retail energy suppliers have been significantly converged to the highest upper limit, and people can no longer expect to save electricity costs or gas fees by replacing retailers.

According to a report from the British Congress in early September, from the beginning of this year to July, the price of natural gas in the UK rose 96%, and the electricity price rose 54%. In other words, this winter is difficult for many British. A friend living in Shefield showed me a bill for me: the two of them rented a 60 -square -meter apartment. In the previous years, including daily use, cooking and heating, the energy cost of one year was £ 890, about 7150 yuan. This year, from the beginning of the year to August, their energy costs have reached 1040 pounds. They expect that after the expenses continue to increase the price at the end of the year, this year's total energy spending will reach twice the last year. And they are much less burdensome than ordinary British residents -they do not raise their children, nor do they need to repay loans.

For a few days in the UK, I also heard a variety of plans to deal with the upcoming winter: some people intend to go to the office, some intend to add a few thick quilts, and even some people plan to buy solar battery packs. The elevated energy price is still tolerated for the middle class, but it is a heavy burden on many middle and lower people, as well as college students, urban poor, and retired elderly people who have just graduated.

For example, the initial salary of undergraduate graduates of British universities is about 20,000 pounds per year. Assuming renting a house in London, it will take about 10,000 pounds. Rising energy costs means that of about 5%-10%of the more than 10,000 pounds left, about 5%-10%are used to pay bills. This is a small expense. Moreover, most ordinary workers have no savings habits, which means that they must "dismantle the east wall and make up the west wall every month. Moreover, some netizens launched a "Don'T Pay UK" campaign to encourage the people who could not afford the bills simply refused to pay the bill. So far, they claim to have received more than 170,000 online signature support.

Winter will be the first test facing Tras after taking office. So far, the British government has adopted a series of small repair policies to respond to rising energy prices. The government announced a series of loans, reduction and cash compensation plans from February to May, covering some of the price increases at the beginning of the year. However, so far, the British government has not launched response measures to solve the problem of winter energy price. In the primary election, Tras avoided whether to provide subsidies. The latest news is that her cabinet is likely to announce a subsidy plan next. The government raises 40 billion pounds of funds by lending to help the public maintain the actual energy cost at the current level. But how to help the commercial and industry affected by energy increases -such as restaurants and factories -the increasing cost of controlling the increasingly rising costs, Tras has not given appropriate plans.

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The problem is not only fuel and electricity. This year is a year of general inflation. The war between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up global energy and grain prices, and the rise in these prices overlapped the high inflation caused by the superb development of currencies and strong demand after the epidemic. Compared with the same period last year, the average expensive consumer goods in Britain in the summer of 2022 were 13.5%, and the service industry price increased by 5.7%. A think tank "Resolution Foundation", a think tank that has been following the British economic situation, recently announced a report that predicts the actual salary of per capita per capita in the second quarter of 2022 -this means that people actually actually people actually actually It's poor. Under the comprehensive influence of these factors, the Bank of England predicted very pessimistic in early August that the British economy will enter the recession in the fourth quarter of this year, the actual after -tax income of British families will decline significantly, and consumption will shrink.

How to regain the economy? After experiencing a series of crises such as Brexit and epidemic, the Conservative Government faces the challenge to find new growth points and prevent the British economy from entering the recession. In the Conservative Party's party election, this issue has become the focus of debate with Sonak. Tellas believes that the focus of revitalizing the economy lies in tax cuts: she plans to abolish the company's tax increase plan launched during the term of Sunak's Treasury Secretary after the stage, and restore the British company tax to the lowest level of the developed economy; In addition, she also plans to reduce the rate of value -added tax and national insurance. In Tellas, it can attract more investment to the UK through tax cuts to make the British economy grow in a long -term growth, and temporary fiscal deficit will be made up for the greater fiscal revenue under the future economic growth. Sunak insisted on a more stable path. He has been defending an increase in the epidemic and this year's tax increase policy. In a speech at the University of London's Urban College in February this year, Sonak attacked two theory of "quite tempting" growth theory -one is the Kanesist line that continues to increase government expenditure, and the other is the claim. Classic Sachamist economics for tax cuts. In the debate with Trask, Sonak insisted on this understanding of economics. That is, simply reducing corporate taxes does not mean that corporate taxes can bring economic growth, while British capital access restrictions, labor quality and education level are far more impactful than tax issues on the economy. Sunak's route is to expand the investment in labor quality and education, while reducing investment thresholds and foreign investment restrictions -and this means that the government must guarantee sufficient income base, so his policy toolbox does not include large -scale tax cuts in large -scale tax cuts. plan. "(Tellas's economic policy) has no basis, it will only make inflation worse and make the problem longer." In the debate with Tras, Sonak has always emphasized that the opponent's economic route is not feasible.

The interesting features of Trask and Sunak's debate is that both of them tried to compete for Sachel's heritage -the most important part of the Conservative Party's hands and the most hate by the Labor and its voters. In the previous series of campaigns, Tras has imitated Mrs. Sachel's dress many times -in the debate between July and Sunak, she wore a black and white suit with a huge bow -this suit -this It was the classic costume of Mrs. Sachel in the 1980s.

Her specific policy, especially tax cuts, is also summoning the memory of Mrs. Sachel to the Conservative Party members. However, the success of the tax reduction policy in the Sache era is actually full of argument. Sunak particularly emphasized the insistence on the financial discipline of controlling deficits in the Sachel era. He interpreted the tax reduction of Sache as a policy behavior based on the fiscal deficit. However, he did not say that the balance of payments of the government in the Sachel era was a series of privatized sale projects from housing to railways. In fact, it provided the government with the source of income beyond the tax -US political and economy. Scholar Monica Plazad has a very exciting discussion on the side of Sachelism in the book "Politics of Liberty". In any case, now anyone who wants to win within the Conservative Party needs to make himself look like Mrs. Sachel -whether he or she uses the "Iron Lady" who has governed the United Kingdom for eleven years side.

In the election campaign, Sonak had no other choice. As the executor of Johnson's cabinet economic policy, he must adhere to the policy route he has participated. And this gives Tillas a lot of convenience -the conservative party leader election is not a national election. Candidates only need to face the Conservative Party members -and the actual registered party members are older, white and men. This determines that in the party election, candidates adopting a more "right" and conservative route will be easier to attract support.

This makes Tillas's governance in the future, there will be a suspense: in her life, she has changed its political position. She has shifted to the Brexit on the Brexit issue to the Brexit. Will she "change color" again after taking office and then take office again. In the actual administration, to the economic road of Johnson Sunak? After all, although the tax reduction plan is seductive, it means that the decrease in fiscal revenue means that the quality of the British health system and other public services that have seriously lacked people have further decreased, and this will affect the possibility of the Conservative Party won the next election. sex. Or, after experiencing the ruling of the three prime ministers for six years, did the Conservative Party not feel that the rotation of the political party became inevitable? As a result, Tras may implement her tax cuts to the end, leaving a budget trap to the next government? These are all issues to be observed.

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Compared with domestic policies, Tras's diplomatic line is easier to expect and directly -she will generally inherit the diplomatic style of the Johnson era. This means that the blue and yellow Ukrainian flags that fluttering over the major government agencies in London will continue to exist -the British will continue to show the support of the Ukrainian war in the Tellas era -even if the United Kingdom will not receive too much, it will not receive too much Ukrainian refugees; this also means that in the Far East, she also has a probability that she will continue to support the "Indo -Pacific" policy led by the United States and continue to promote the "AUKUS" security agreement of the three parties in the United States and Britain. In addition, she still has a conflict with the European Union on the issue of Northern Ireland that has not talked about it.

Compared with other issues, the diplomatic route should be the most "iron lady" or eagle's exhibition space. It is worth mentioning that Tellas advocates the proportion of British military expenditure to the proportion of GDP, with a target of 3%in 2030. In 2022, the biggest change in the European continent stems from the fire of Ukraine. After the Cold War, the largest war in Europe has caused European countries to be most direct -millions of refugees, natural gas and soaring food prices that are cut off. And this also makes European countries feel a sense of crisis from energy structure to economic models, so as to brew more changes -whether it is to re -adjust the energy structure, increase military expenses, or emphasize economic sovereignty, or negative — —— stronger nationalism or conservative mentality -crisis is making Europe different from the past.

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But in 2022, Britain was still far from the front of the war. Perhaps the British society after Brexit is farther in mentality. The recent rise in energy costs has not changed the Conservative Party's doubt about green energy. 40%of British power relies on the status quo of natural gas, nor did it not cause the new government to propose a new alternative energy solution. Compared to the European continent that is stepping up the reserves of natural gas in winter, Britain's response can almost be said to be slow and leisurely. Just recently, German Chancellor Tzuz has launched a new energy subsidy plan. The German government will levy additional expenses to energy companies that have received high profits this year in order to make 65 billion euros subsidies to reduce the energy of ordinary citizens and enterprises. Surgery pressure.

Tellas has just appointed a cabinet led by ethnic minorities and women -Treasury Secretary Kwatten is Ghana, Foreign Minister Claidley is a mixed -race of multiple countries, and the Minister of Internal Affairs Blafima and Deputy Prime Minister Ciffi are female. However, although this cabinet team can explain that the Conservative Party has done a good job in the diversification of politicians, it does not mean that the British government's policy route will change because of the new Prime Minister and the new cabinet. There are not much changes, and there are the Conservative Party's opponent -although the latest polls show that Labor Party is increasing in support, but Labor leader Stammer's energy can only be considered quite satisfactory. After Corbin was repelled out of the Labor Party's power center, the Labor Party swayed on the Blair route without Blair.

There are more than two years to practice her political vision for more than two years, or she only needs to press the flame in front of her. Will Tras a new change to the United Kingdom? At least it is unlikely before the next election. Moreover, Johnson, who had just left No. 10 Tangning Street, compared herself in History in history -a ancient Roman politician who once retired back to farmers to work, and later went out as senior officials.

(The author is international journalists and freelance writers)

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