The "triple play" in the United States, Japan and South Korea: Accelerate closer, each has its own abacus?

From diplomatic interaction to joint military exercises, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have made new actions.

On September 1st, the head of the United States, Japan, and South Korea will hold a third meeting in Hawaii, USA. This is the first talks between the three countries of the Three Kingdoms of the Three Kingdoms of the Three Kingdoms of the Three Kingdoms. It is also a period of time that the United States, Japan, and South Korea have tightened the "screws".

Analysts believe that, in the context of the United States' promotion of "Indo -Pacific Strategy" and stepping up China, the United States, Japan and South Korea are increasingly moved closer. However, in view of the different strength, status, and interests, the three parties will be restricted. In addition, it is important to be vigilant that the United States has attracted allies and exacerbated the trend of campization. The risk of introducing the new cold war into the Asia -Pacific region may make the regional situation more tense and complicated.

The topic characteristics are clear

On Tuesday, Edryan Watson, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, announced the meeting.

Jack Sharvin, a assistant to the US President's National Security Affairs, Akihagang, Director of the Japan National Security Agency, and Kim Shenghan, the head of the National Security Room in South Korea, will meet on September 1 at the headquarters of the U.S. Indo -Pacific Command in Hawaii. The day before, on August 31, the three parties held bilateral talks.

According to Watson, after the three parties meeting, Shalvin will visit the U.S. Indo -Pacific Command to explore the idea of ​​promoting the "free and open Indo -Pacific" concept with the alliance countries.

According to media reports such as Yonhap News Agency, the three parties will conduct in -depth discussions on North Korea's issues, economic security, South Korean, American -Japan -Japan cooperation, regional and international hotspots.

Regarding the North Korean issue, South Korean media said that South Korea will introduce the "bold ideas" of the policy roadmap to the North Korea to the United States and Japan. In the process, the three parties may jointly examine the situation in North Korea and exchange opinions on curbing North Korea's provocations and promoting progress in the process of nuclearization.

Regarding economic security cooperation, Liu Ming, a researcher at the Institute of International Issues of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that this is an important part of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" in the United States. The three parties are expected to negotiate with key technology exports and supply chains. At the same time, prepare for the "Indo -Pacific Economic Framework" ministerial conference in September.

However, the three parties explore economic security cooperation may also evolve into a scene of South Korea's discussion in the United States.

The United States has recently passed the "Chip and Science Act" and the "Angle Bound Act", which will have a great impact on South Korean semiconductors and new energy vehicle industries. For example, the "Angle Act" excludes Korean electric vehicles from the target of tax credits.

South Korean media said that the South Korean side will pay attention to the adverse issues of Korean enterprises on the implementation of the U.S. "Angle Act" and ask the United States to try to minimize the losses that the Korean side may suffer.

Regarding the regional and international hotspots, the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the Russian and Ukraine conflict will be included in the field of vision. The Yonhap News Agency said that the Three -Party Association exchanged training in Taiwan after visiting the United States Speaker Pelosi to visit Taiwan.

Liu Ming pointed out that the topic of the three -party focus is distinctive, that is, focusing on the core of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy", conducting consultations in the fields of defense, security, and economy, and assessing the situation in Russia and other regions and global situations.

The outside world noticed that the "National Security Council" of the US -Japan -Korea three sides was held when the situation in the Taiwan Strait was tight and the situation of the Korean Peninsula fluctuated. However, in Liu Ming's opinion, in addition to changes in the situation, the head of the third side of Guoan also had a longer -term consideration, that is, the extension of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" extended version. At present, South Korea is not a participant in the "Quartet Safety Dialogue" mechanism, but the United States, Japan and South Korea are interested in "Quartet+", hoping to incorporate South Korea into the "Indo -Pacific Strategy", so as to promote the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" to Northeast Asia through an extended version. Essence

The United States is trying to promote

For a period of time, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have been in close contact, showing a trend of accelerated closer.

At the diplomatic level, the Three Kingdoms had held the first summit for the past five years through the NATO summit, and held a foreign minister meeting during the G20 Foreign Minister's meeting; "". Today's holding of the Guoan Chief talks can be regarded as the latest contact with senior executives of the Three Kingdoms.

At the military level, the three -side and bilateral exercises are endless. The large -scale military exercise of the US -South Korea's "Shid of Freedom of the B" restarts after five years; the United States and Japan also launched a series of military exercises in Kyushu, Japan. This month, the United States, Japan, and South Korea also held anti -director exercises code -named "Pacific Dragon" in the Hawaii waters.

The reason why the United States, Japan and South Korea are getting closer, and Lan Jianxue, director of the Asia -Pacific Research Institute of the China Institute of International Issues, believes that it is a large extent that the United States has tried to promote it, and its purpose is two.

The first is to promote the implementation of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy". As the comprehensive national strength is declining and the ability to control the regional control bureau, the United States hopes to use the power of regional allies to build the United States, Japan and South Korea, to support and promote the "Indo -Pacific Strategy". "Holding the three -side national security head meeting showed that the United States has increased significantly, hoping that the two countries will share the responsibility of security and expand their existence in the region."

The second is to step up to curb to block China. After the Biden government came to power, it regarded China as the most urgent and severe geopolitical strategic competitors. The United States' layout in the Asia -Pacific region was surrounded by curbing China. In the process, Japan and South Korea will inevitably bear the pressure of selection.

There are also comments that the United States takes the lead to hold this three -party talks to try to convey such information to the outside world: Russia and Ukraine conflicts have not dispersed the United States' attention to the Indo -Pacific region, and the United States can still focus on the challenges brought about by China's rise.

Analysts also pointed out that Japan and South Korea's closer to the United States also have their own calculations. Japan sought to expand its regional influence and became the main leader of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy". South Korea also has the ambition to become a global central country. Both parties intend to use the resources and strength of the United States. Liu Ming predicts that in the future, military cooperation in the US, Japan, and South Korea will be strengthened. Several trends worthy of attention include: the three parties will pay more attention to military collaboration and interoperability; the scope of military exercises may shift from Hawaii to the East China Sea; the three -party intelligence sharing may expand from the township to China; The medium -range missile is pushed to the first island chain; coordinating the US -Japan -South Korea's anti -commissioned system.

Three parties "Dream of the same bed"

The United States leading dance, Japan and South Korea dance, how close to such three -sided cooperation can always be concerned.

Lan Jianxue said that on the surface, the cooperation between the United States and Japan and South Korea has been given richer content. From the past focusing on military security, it has extended to the fields of supply chain and economic security. However, there are still limitations on the three sides of cooperation. This limitation is particularly manifested on the issue of China -related China.

The United States positions China as a strategic competitor, trying to create a three -sided alliance to curb the pressure to suppress China and increase the pressure on Japan and South Korea. However, the relationship between Japan and South Korea and China has developed in -depth, especially the interdependence of economic and trade relations. Japan and South Korea know that the United States is striving for to curb China, but the two countries are reluctant to shudder for the United States. "Due to the temperature difference between the attitude towards China and the strategic orientation of China, the three countries will not achieve much results in anti -China issues."

It turns out that in the face of the pressure of the US station team, Japan and South Korea are also cautiously considering and subtle balance. Not long ago, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Zhen, and the Japanese National Security Director Akigon Qi Yegang visited China one after another, indicating that South Korea and Japan had no intention of falling on the United States. South Korean Foreign Minister also said that if China is eliminated, it is difficult to talk about the future of the Indo -Pacific region.

At the same time, the changes in the past and the past of the three sides are also restricting the closer cooperation of the Three Kingdoms. Lan Jianxue pointed out that in the past, the prominent characteristics of US -Japanese and Korean relations were the strategic autonomy of the United States to suppress Japan and South Korea; now, with the decline in the overall strength of the United States, the regional situation and the control of the allies have weakened, making the three sides equality and allies ally. The initiative has gradually risen, and the United States is even more heavy to regional allies, and the internal centrifugal force is naturally darker.

Liu Ming also believes that there are many restricted factors in the United States, Japan and South Korea to promote cooperation.

First, the power is asymmetric, different status, and the differences in interests, which leads to the "border length" of the US -Japan -South Korea three sides of the United States and Japan.

Second, there is no formal cooperation mechanism on the third side. The three parties only take the two mechanisms of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to promote cooperation. The three parties could not even form a topic -type mechanism, similar to the establishment of the Opus alliance around the topic of the United States and Australia around nuclear submarines. The non -cooperation mechanism has made the United States and Japan's cooperation in a loose, inefficient state, and stay at the level of coordination and consultation.

Third, the three parties "different dreams in bed". The United States is the first concern to China. Out of competition from great powers, strategic coverage is far greater than Japan and South Korea; Japan pays attention to the Taiwan Strait issue, trying to play the problem, enhance the national defense power, and accelerate the normalization of militaryization; This is not a priority of the United States.

In addition, the historical grievances between Japan and South Korea, the territorial disputes are difficult to solve, and the Korean folk anti -Japanese mood is strong. Even if the United States mediates, the Yin Xiyue government is good at the Japanese, and South Korea and Japan cannot be completely reconciled.

The above -mentioned factors determine that the three parties are difficult to launch substantial cooperation in many issues, and can only be limited and moderate cooperation. Taking the meeting of the three countries of the Three Kingdoms as an example, it is expected that senior officials of the three parties are only focusing on consultations and confidentiality with each other, symbolizing significance than substantial significance.

Although the "paper triangle" is difficult to change the "iron triangle" for a while, the impact of the United States, Japan and South Korea's closer to the Asia -Pacific region is appearing.

Lan Jianxue pointed out that the United States has endlessly expressed its efforts to cover Japan and South Korea, with a view to rectifying the Three Kingdoms Alliance system, and the risk of bringing the New Cold War into the Asia -Pacific region. "Whether it is a bilateral military alliance or the sharing of three sides of intelligence, it is the residual of the Cold War. Re -introduction of the barracks and ideological confrontation into the Asia -Pacific region will cause the region to fall into a safe dilemma and worthy of regional countries."

(Lan Jianxue, director and associate researcher of the Asia -Pacific Research Institute of China Institute of International Issues. The original text was published in the Liberation Daily September 1, 2022)

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