Zhang Jiechi: "Crisis" and "Machine" of Castoli in governing for one year

On August 3, Torres, chairman of the Peruvian Ministerial Meeting (Prime Minister), announced that he would submit his resignation to President Casti. Torres is the chairman of the Fourth Minister's Meeting since Casteli as President.

On the 5th, Casto announced the rejection of Torres' resignation, and Torres would continue to be the chairman of the Minister's Meeting. At the same time, Castili also appointed 6 new cabinet members. Although a crisis is temporarily avoided, for the "peasant president" Casto, who has been in power for a year, it will still be challenging and opportunities in the future.

Cabinet frequently replace

In the second round of the Peruvian presidential election held in June last year, Casti defeated Fujimomori with a weak advantage. On July 28 last year, Castili officially took office as president.

For more than a year, Casto has formed 4 cabinets and appointed more than 50 candidates for ministers. The most frequently changed departments include the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Agricultural Development, and the Ministry of Energy and Mining. Department and field.

During this period, Peru's "dispute between the government and courtyard" also showed a fierce trend, and the government and Congress's confrontation continued to intensify. The proposal to revise the constitution and promote the nationalization of energy and mining in Casto has been unanimously resisted by Congress opposition. In November and March 2022, the Peruvian parliament had launched an impeachment procedure to Casti Two times on the grounds of "moral incompetence."

In addition, Casto also faced a number of alleged corruption and obstructive judicial justice. He also became the first member of the Peruvian Party where the Party Liberty Peruvian was forcibly withdrawn.

Affected by the above factors, the latest survey results conducted by the Peruvian Institute in August showed that 53%of the respondents held a negative evaluation of the first year of President Casto's governance. The northern region has the highest degree of disagreement with President Casto, the middle and eastern parts, the lowest in the south. The support rate of Congress is not optimistic, and has decreased by nearly 21%in the past year.

Investigation by Peruvisy Public Opinion Survey also shows that 74%of Peruns do not agree with the president's management method.

It is worth noting that under the long -lasting "government dispute" and the continuous evolutionary cabinet crisis catalysis, Peru's international reputation and reputation are damaged to varying degrees.

A Peruvian parliament held a vote in July to oppose the 52nd America State Organization Conference planned in Lima in October. In August, Casto was unable to attend the inauguration of Columbia's new president because he was not authorized by Congress, becoming the first head of Peru to be rejected to travel abroad. Many Latin American countries have expressed regret.

Economic and social pressure

The unstable political situation, coupled with the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Ukraine crisis and other factors, affects the prospect of Peru's economic recovery.

Data from the Peruvian Institute of Social Economics show that Peru's economic growth has slowed. The Peruvian central bank has reduced the country's economic growth forecast this year from 3.4%to 3.1%, and it is expected that private investment will increase by 0%. According to data from the Statistics Bureau of Peru, the country's inflation rate is 9.32%, the highest level in 10 years, and the cumulative inflation rate of Lima City has reached the highest level since August 1997.

To this end, the Peruvian central bank has raised policy interest rates to the highest level since 2009. Major financial entities predict that Peru's inflation will not return to normal level until 2024.

Peru's social production is also difficult to guarantee. La Basan Mine, located in Peru, is one of the largest copper mines in the world. This year, due to community protests, it has to be stopped operating for about 50 days, causing Peru to lose $ 195 million in the first five months of this year.

At the same time, Peru's food crisis is also quietly fermented. After the Presidential election won last year, Casto said that this is the first time in Peru's history to govern the country by a farmer. However, due to the frequent replacement of the Agricultural Minister, the lack of urea fertilizer and the frequent frequent weather disasters, Peru's grain output will be reduced by 40%this year, and the output of key crops such as rice and potatoes in the short term will be reduced by 10%.

There is still opportunities in the future

Affected by factors such as Congress's constraints, compared with the promise made during the campaign, the Casti government's performance in the past year was somewhat unsatisfactory. In the first anniversary of the inauguration, Castili announced that the government would take some economic measures, including the implementation of social assistance plans and improving the social security system, but was sighed by Congress.

However, in terms of the current situation, there are still many opportunities for the Governance of the Castili government.

First of all, although Peruvian society has declined with the trust of the government and Congress, Congress is not recognized and not trusted, which means that Casti still has a certain governance space.

Secondly, the Peruvian economy achieved a high growth of 13%in 2021. The expected economic growth rate in 2022 was also stronger than the average level of Latin America and the Caribbean. At this stage, Peru has also maintained the best credit rating in Latin America, and the growth of mining production and the normalization of the labor market have also helped economic recovery.

Third, the regional environment where Peru is located is also beneficial to the Castili government. As Latin America enters a new round of election cycle, the region's left is a trend of collective rise, which is extremely beneficial to enhance the power of Peru's left.

For Casto, the first time they need to clarify multiple allegations, this is the first step in restoring its prestige.In addition, gradually explore the governance model suitable for Peru's national conditions, enhance Latin American integration and regional collaboration, or help Peru get rid of the current difficulty.(Zhang Jiechi, an internship at the Latin American and Caribbean Research Institute of China International Institute of International Issues.

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