After pressing the UK, India has hotly discussed "Hasing Dedica"

The latest report released by the National Bank of India (SBI) on the 3rd shows that according to the current economic growth rate, India will become the world's third largest economy in 2029. The report predicts that the GDP of India (GDP) will surpass Germany in 2027 and is likely to surpass Japan in 2029 to achieve the goal of entering the "top three in the world." Just last Friday, Bloomberg reported that according to the GDP statistics released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Indian economy surpassed the UK in the last quarter of 2021 and continued to expand its leading advantage in the first quarter of this year. It is ranked fifth -largest economy in the world after the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. This news stimulated Indian public opinion. For a while, entrepreneurs and politicians issued "high songs" India's economic achievements on social media. However, some economists say whether the high growth of India's economy can continue and needs further observation.

On August 30, Mumbai's workers struggled to push a cart full of fish baskets. (Agence France -Presse)

From the fifth to the third?

IMF data shows that after correction, India's nominal GDP in the first three months of 2022 was US $ 854.7 billion, while British data was $ 816 billion during the same period. In addition, the British GDP also appeared 0.1%in the second quarter of 2022, which will further expand the gap between the two sides. At the same time, the exchange rate of the British pound against India has fallen by 8%this year. IMF predicts that the GDP scale of India will continue to overcome Britain in 2022. If India can maintain its current momentum, by 2027, its economic scale will be around 20%of the UK.

The Ministry of Economic Research of the National Bank of India believes that India has adopted a successful economic development strategy since 2014, and it is likely to surpass Japan to become the world's third largest economy in 2029. Former Chief Economic Consultant of the Indian Government, Abende Wilmani also supported this analysis conclusion. He said that by 2030, India will become the third largest economy in the United States and China.

Excitement

Many entrepreneurs, politicians, and media in India have rejoiced by India's GDP surpassing Britain. A large part of the reason is that the United Kingdom was once the prince of India. Ananda Ma Hengda, chairman of India's Ma Hengda Automobile Group, did not deny on social media: "Farewell! This news will be pleased with every Indian person who work hard."

The Indian People's Party officially issued an article on the 3rd that "the change of the Modi government has made India achieve the goal of a $ 5 trillion economy. Beyond the United Kingdom to become the fifth largest economy in the world, and India's economic growth is a glorious example! "Indian Finance Secretary Sitraman was inspiring this statistical data. She said that India is the fastest -growing economy in the world, and India's economic growth rate will remain in two digits, and India's possibility of falling into economic decline is zero. The Treasury Secretary's office also posted on social media as soon as possible, "Ten years ago, India ranked only 11th among the global economies, and now it has become the fifth of the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. Large economy. "Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng praised India to achieve" huge social transformation ", saying that" India has prepared to usher in 7%to 8%of growth and recovery. " Subramania, officials of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India, believes that according to the vision formulated by Prime Minister Modi, by 2047, India will become the world's second largest economy. He said, "It is difficult to imagine to what extent our economy developed in 2047, because it has changed very quickly. The total economic volume of India accounted for 25%of the world's total economy. As the Indian economy increased That status. "

Can India do it?

However, the leader of the Indian National Party, Shaji Taruul, believes that India should not be stunned by the "economic achievements" in front of him. He said, "The reason why I keep cautiously and optimistic about (statistical results) is because India is still a country with a large population base. We need to benefit more people from the economic dividends brought by GDP growth." It is said that the per capita GDP of India is still low, the growth rate of manufacturing has slowed down, and a large trade deficit has occurred. From these refined data, you can still see the hidden concerns of India's economic development. Economists have also expressed concerns about whether the continuous high growth can be achieved. The President of the Indian Prime Minister's Economic Consultant Board Berber De Broy said that although the growth rate of 7%-7.5%does not seem too high, historical data shows that maintaining such a growth rate for a long time is a difficult task. In the past 30 years, India has only increased by more than 7%for 5 consecutive years.

A review article published by the Peninsula TV station earlier believes that due to the relief of the Indian epidemic pressure, the performance of agriculture and manufacturing has performed well, and India's economy has grown rapidly, but there are still hidden concerns behind it. It is reported that due to the long -term slowdown of the Indian economy, the statistical base is low, it is not surprising that the growth rate has jumped sharply. Whether the subsequent growth can continue to continue this situation is to be observed.

US rating agency Moody's recently lowered India's economic growth expectations. The company believes that India's GDP growth rate in 2022 will drop from 8.3%in 2021 to 7.7%, and will further decline to 5.2%in 2023. Some economists believe that rising interest rates and slowing global economy will have a negative impact on India's domestic economic activities. ▲

Our newspaper reporter Cheng is a special reporter Hu Bo Bo

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