India's economic growth in the second quarter of this year was 13.5%

Reporter Yuan Jirong

According to data released by the Indian Central Bureau of Statistics on August 31, the economic scale of India in April-June this year was about 3.685 trillion rupees (about 3.19 trillion yuan) increased by 13.5%year-on-year. India's "Financial Express" said that the growth rate was slightly lower than previous expectations. Bloomberg's previous economic growth forecast for economists was 15.3%, and the Central Bank of India is expected to be 16.2%. Some analysts believe that this growth rate is due to India's outbreak of crown pneumonia, and the agricultural and service industry "revenge rebound". India's economic growth in April-June is at the forefront of large global economies. It is related to the basis effect of last year from April-June 2021, India suffered a severe second wave of epidemic impact, including the impact of the second wave of epidemic, including The pillar industry, including the manufacturing and service industry, is seriously affected.

India's "Business Standards" reported that India has just recorded the fastest growth rate in the last four quarters. In the first quarter of this year, India's economic growth rate was 4.1%. According to statistics, India's economic growth in the fiscal year 2021-2022 is 8.7%. Affected by the epidemic, the Indian economy atrophied by 6.6%in the fiscal year of 2020-2021.

Bloomberg reports that strong demand recovery has helped India's economic growth this quarter. In particular, the service industry, the data shows that the investment in April to June increased by 20.1%year-on-year, private consumption increased by 25.9%, and government expenditure increased by 1.3%.

Although the economic growth data is "dazzling", the ordinary Indian people have not obviously suffered the recovery of the Indian economy. Indian people's expectations for economy are lower than the level before the epidemic. The sampling survey conducted by the Central Bank of India in May in May shows that India's resident consumption confidence index in May increased from 71.7 in March to 75.9. Although this is the highest level since the outbreak, the level before the epidemic is still a lot.

At the same time, Indian residents' expectations for the next year have not only improved, but have further deteriorated. The rapid growth of India's economy has not been reflected in the significant increase in employment. According to data released by the Indian Economic Monitoring Center a few days ago, in June, the rural unemployment rate in India rose from 6.62%in May to 8.03%, and the urban unemployment rate rose from 7.12%in May to 7.30%.

The relevant person in charge of the Indian Economic Monitoring Center said that this was the maximum decline in employment in India in the state of non -epidemic blockade. Among the current 900 million legal ages, India's labor participation rate has dropped from 46%six years ago to only 40%.

India's economy is complicated, and the adverse impact of the external world is significantly increased. As the price of international commodities rose, inflation in India remained high. Since July, India's economic growth has slowed significantly. The Bank of India started raising interest rates three times in May, with a total of 140 basis points. The benchmark interest rate level has returned to the epidemic. At the same time, the economic growth prospects including Europe and the United States, including Europe and the United States, are dim, and India's exports will be seriously affected. The industry is expected that India's economic growth may only be around 6%from July to September this year.

Bloomberg reports that the trend of strong economic recovery in India is short -lived, and subsequent economic growth will slow down. The growing interest rate may hinder the recovery of fragile demand. Konar Kundu, an economist of French Industrial Bank, said that in addition to the basic effects of a large number of statistics, strong growth reflects the demand for Omikon's exit Weaken. At present, the growth trend may be short -lived, because the wider re -opening impact is weakening, and the country is working hard to deal with higher borrowing costs, inflation and high unemployment rates and global economic recession.

India's "Financial Express" website recently reported that Bank of America believes that high -frequency indicators in July show that India's economic activities are losing their motivation, and most indicators have decreased compared to last month. In a report, the Bank of America stated: "The high -frequency indicators in July are not as good as June. Most economic activity indicators performed lower than the median month -on -month." Compared with June, the port freight volume and aviation freight in July The quantities have slowed down. Slowness is more obvious than the usual decline in July in July. Railway passenger volume has improved, but it is still lower than the level before the epidemic. Due to the slowdown in exports, the Indian trade deficit further expanded from US $ 26.1 billion in June to US $ 30 billion in July.

EMKAY Global Financial Services Co., Ltd. Economist Madrid Havi Arula said that the data is ginseng. The global price is still high, and the monetary policy that suppress demand and the weakened global growth prospects put pressure on the future growth prospects. Taken together, India's economic growth will slow down in the future. The World Bank recently reduced the economic growth of India's 2022-2023 fiscal year from 8%to 7.5%. This is the second time the World Bank has lowered India's economic growth expectations. ▲

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