The International Clearance Bank said that the global economy may be close to the "fragile point" to reset the policy to boost growth

21st Century Business Herald reporter Hu Tianzheng Comprehensive Report

On August 26th local time, Agustín Carstens, president of the International Clearance Bank (BIS), spoke at the Jackson Hall conference that if the current policy operation method is not changed and the supply chain is not reshaped, the global economy may continue to weaken.

"The factors in supply may continue to push up the price." In addition, the factors that have suppressed inflation in the past, such as geopolitics, globalization, and population factors, will have a adverse effect on suppressing inflation.

Agustín Carstens believes that the current policy makers need consciousness and absorb three aspects of experience.

First of all, in order to cope with the new crown epidemic, global economic stagnation. "But the supply valve is not the same as opening and off the demand valve." Agustín Carstens said that afterwards, it is expected that it can easily ignite the growth of the growth engine, quickly recover the economic growth and fly again. The idea.

Secondly, Agustín Carstens said that the availability of total global supply should be taken for granted. The global supply network, which is steadily adjusted according to the changes of the total demand, is far from as elastic as expected. In the case where a few key production factors were interrupted, the seemingly powerful global supply chain collapsed.

The third experience is "sensitivity to inflation to supply constraints." Agustín Carstens pointed out that policy makers have become accustomed to sufficient supply in the past decades and lack experience in adjusting the stimulus measures to restart the intention of the interested closed economic growth engine, so they began to use familiar demand tools. However, the consequences of high inflation caused by the current supply and demand that are seriously not matched made policy makers caught off guard.

In the long run, a key challenge is that the impact of the interruption of specific supply chain interruptions caused by the new crown epidemic and global geopolitics has gradually disappeared, and the importance of factors in supply may still be high. lasting.

This new and more unfavorable supply environment has a warning impact on economic policies. Agustín Carstens said that the current global economy may be close to the so -called "coffin angle" in the aviation field, that is, the aircraft slows down below the stall, and it cannot produce sufficient lift to maintain height. "This is a very fragile point that requires skilled driving to make the plane back to a safer and more stable place." He explained that if the economy is to return to the persistent track, first of all Looking at what these policies can bring, and more keenly aware of the relevant costs.

"The central banks of various countries cannot expect to eliminate all economic problems, but must focus on maintaining low inflation and stability." It emphasized that the first thing to deal with monetary policy is to deal with the urgent challenges brought by the current inflation.

At the same time, Agustín Carstens said that fiscal policy should be used to directly solve some supply restrictions and should support extensive structural reforms. Conversely, this method of focusing on the re -economic growth of the supplier can also create room for reconstruction of the fiscal buffer zone.

He believes that at present, the goals of various countries should be to create a dynamic and flexible environment, encourage innovation, enhance flexibility, and support the required system, technology and ecological transformation. The decision makers should also focus on promoting investment in the medical field to better protect human capital, while promoting investment in infrastructure such as climate -friendly industries.

"It is also important to maintain international cooperation." Agustín Carstens said that a feasible solution is to promote a better and sustainable global form, such as when social benefits exceed private costs, encourage enterprises to establish a shorter shorter Or more diversified supply chains, and use new technologies to monitor and stress test.

"The signs of supply of fragile supply have been neglected too long." Agustín Carsstens said that when a police lamp flashed, timely and decisive actions are essential. "Revitalizing productivity growth and enhancing the flexibility and elasticity of supply must play a greater role in future policy debates." It is said that the sooner the policy makers focus on the sustainable growth strategy focusing on the supply side of revitalization. The stronger the global economy, the more toughness.

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