The Russian -Ukraine conflict just kicked off for half a year?British forecast will enter the "new stage"

Local time on March 3, 2022, Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, the people boarded the train vision of Lavff

Yangcheng Evening News commentator Sun Ziqing

On August 24, when the Russian -Ukraine conflict was half a year, Ukraine ushered in an independent day, and President Zeleisky vowed to fight to the end in his speech; on the 25th, Russian President Putin signed an order to increase Russian armed for 137,000 people.

The war that stretches for half a year seems to be intensifying.

It is difficult to predict how to end this conflict on how to end this conflict, but this "the largest geopolitical crisis in Europe since World War II" has completely changed the global situation.

"New stage"

The artillery fire near the Zapolo Nuclear Power Station caused a nuclear accident; the daughter of Russian theorist Du Jin was killed by assassination; Crimea had a number of attacks; the Russian and Black Sea fleet was attacked; Ukraine may recently launch a counterattack on the southern front ...

The smoke is permeated, not just the battlefield.

The British Ministry of Defense predicts that the Russian -Ukraine conflict will soon enter the "new stage" to form a front of about 350 kilometers extending from Zapolo to Hermone.

At present, Russia's troops and equipment still have an advantage in terms of quantity, but the situation of Ukraine's inch inch is not to be underestimated. Coupled with the continuous stirring of the United States and the West, Russia and Ukraine's offensive and defensive "pulling" must continue for a period of time. Some analysts believe that this special military operation may last for several years.

From the perspective of strategic goals, the ideas of both sides are farther. In Russia, its goal has changed from the initial overthrow of Kyiv to control large Ukrainian territory. However, its recent offensive in the east and south compared to July, it has been significantly slowed down. However, Russia obviously does not withdraw from the Wudong region, let alone give up the Crimean Peninsula; Ukraine has repeatedly insisted, not only to regain the Hermone region in the south, the Lugusk and Donetsk region in the east, but also To regain Crimea. President Zelezzki made it clear in his independent day speech that he was opposed to Russia on territorial issues. It was not until Ukraine's final victory that the conflict would really end.

More and more evidence shows that neither party shows any willingness to negotiate or compromise, and the Russian -Ukraine conflict may last longer.

"Winter is coming"

Will the situation change in the winter or even next winter, will the situation change?

Ukraine has recently mentioned the time of "winter" many times-

Ukrainian President Zelei Video publicly stated publicly when attending the Summit of the Seventh Kingdoms Group that he hoped to end his military conflict with Russia before the beginning of this winter; Yermark, director of the Ukraine's office, also said that Ukraine must win before the winter, otherwise the Russian army will be the Russian army. With more time to consolidate the situation of the battlefield, the counterattack of the Ukraine will be more difficult.

The arrival of winter may indeed bring advantages to the Russian side. After all, Moscow once used the severe cold in winter to repel Napoleon and Hitler. Winter is also more unfavorable to Europe that rely on Russian energy.

But the continuous war and Western sanctions are also huge consumption for Russia, which worsen Russia's difficult economy. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund at the end of July, Russia's economic growth rate in 2022 will be -6.0%.

It is not only Russia, but the economy of the United States is not optimistic. According to the data released by the European Union Statistics on August 18, the inflation rate in the 19th country of the euro zone was 8.9%, a record high. In the second quarter of this year, the GDP (GDP) calculated by 0.6%by annual rate, shrinking for two consecutive quarters.

As soon as the cannon rang, the gold was two thousand. The continuous war tests how much they can take out Ukraine's economic and military assistance. The United States still took the lead in "arch fire". On the day of Ukraine ’s Independence Day, the United States announced that it would provide additional security assistance worth 2.98 billion US dollars (since the Bayeng government ruling, the United States promised to provide Ukraine with a total security assistance of more than $ 13.5 billion). But this assistance can not be delivered at the moment, but to wait until one or two years.

Many European countries have some "lack of stamina". In particular, French countries seem to be more hoped to reach a solution quickly through negotiations.

The "Aid Tortee" database under the Institute of Economics, Germany showed that in recent months, the six European countries have fell into a straightforward assistance to Ukraine. In July, they did not provide any new bilateral military assistance commitments to Ukrai.

"Iron curtain pull down"

Slowing in Europe may not be as optimistic as expected. In fact, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has already caused the "big earthquake" of the international political territory -the middle area is dissolving, and the world is rapidly dividing into two camps.

From the beginning of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the author has analyzed the Russian -Ukraine conflict that will enhance NATO's centripetal force -after all, the best way to increase organizational cohesion is to have external threats. If the Crimean crisis, Germany and other Western European countries have room for energy issues due to energy issues, leaving room for Russian issues. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, they have to stand on the opposite of Russia whether they are sincere or not.

At the same time, the sense of insecurity spread in Europe. Both Finland and Sweden have given up their policies that they do not form alliances and have started the process of joining NATO. The eastward expansion of NATO and Russia's west will make the broad buffer zone of Central and Eastern Europe no longer exist. The "iron curtain" in Churchill's mouth is restarting Europe.

This time the "iron curtain" moved eastward. When the "iron curtain" of the Cold War in 1946, the Baltic Sea, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, etc. were on the Soviet Union; this time, they were on the west of the iron curtain and on the opposite of Russia. This is a major adjustment of European order after the Cold War.

European order is obviously not only affected by Europe. The "iron curtain" in Europe is still the same as decades ago, but the head of the United States is the first.

This is the "unexpected surprise" of the Biden government. In the past few years, the unilateralism of the Trump administration and the knocks on the allies have caused European countries to be disgusted with the United States. Germany has risen prestige because of the protection and persistence of the "democracy" and the Western value system. After Biden came to power, a series of operations such as withdrawal in Afghanistan also led to chaos. However, after the Russian conflict, Washington took the opportunity to re -unite the NATO and consolidate its "leaders" (not only in Europe, but also the United States has stepped up "small circles" in Asia -Pacific, the Middle East and other regions).

More importantly, although the United States still claims to "based on rules -based world order", it is undeniable that after the Cold War, it has gradually formed, covering most major countries (including Russia) in the world after the Cold War, The world order is disintegrated. Instead, it is a "boundary order" based on realism and geopolitics.

Japanese Prime Minister Kishita Kishita stated evenly at the Shangri -La dialogue that Ukraine's emergency situation may be Tomorrow in East Asia, and he will be committed to realist diplomacy for the new era, and will adhere to this thorough pragmatism Essence

It is worth noting that, according to data from the Stockholm Peace Institute, as the Russian -Ukraine conflict has caused the global tension suddenly, the number of world nuclear weapons will grow for the first time since the end of the Cold War after 35 years of decline.

The world is never safe, not only in the past six months.

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