High temperature sweeping the world: Europe has entered the HARD model the most severe drought in 500 years?

Climate scientists pointed out

The climate environment on the earth is evolving significantly

How to adapt to and slow the negative effects brought by climate change

It will be a major challenge for human beings in the next decades

Recently, when Tu Jianjun contacted his alumni who lived in Vancouver, Canada, the other party told him that this summer, because the weather was too hot, the family had to install air conditioners at home, which made him impress his impact on extreme high -temperature weather this year.

Tu Jianjun is the president of China and former director of the China Cooperation Department of the Agora Energy Transformation Forum, and has studied and worked in Vancouver. Vancouver has a mild climate and pleasant four seasons. Public information shows that the summer temperature in the cities located in the southwestern coast of Canada is generally around 20 ° C, and the winter temperature is generally above 0 ° C. But in late July this year, Vancouver's temperature reached 30.4 ° C, which set the hottest day since the record.

"Nature" magazine wrote in an article in early August that extreme high temperatures are staged almost at the same time in the world at the same time.

On August 12, after the water level continued to decline, a ancient horse bridge in the Byetinus Reservoir appeared. Photo/Visual China

In South Asia, India and Pakistan have been impacted by high temperature since March this year. Some areas of India exceeded 44 ° C at the end of March, and at least 90 people died because of this; in June, Tokyo exceeded 35 ° C for 9 consecutive days, which was the most serious heat wave since the record in the 19870s. Start monitoring the first high temperature above 40 ° C since the temperature. At the same time, the drought and wildfire under the heat wave spread in France, Spain, Greece, Germany and other places.

This series of extreme events that occur in the northern hemisphere are the embodiment of the rapid changes in global climate. In the future, the meteorological community predicts more and more unexpected extreme weather. Scholars studying weather point out that the earth's climate and environment is evolving significantly, bringing new challenges to the development of human society.

Europe has encountered the most serious drought in 500 years

In Spain, archaeologists have recently discovered an accident that the prehistoric stone group, known as the "Spanish Boulder Formation". The boulder was covered by the Waldcanas Reservoir in the central Kassarez province. Due to the worst drought in the past decades, the water level decreased, and the authorities said that the water level had dropped to 28 % of the capacity of the reservoir.

Due to the drought, the water level of the second long river in Europe has fallen to one of the lowest water levels in the past century. During the "World War II" period, more than 20 German warships sank near the Selvi River section, which were exposed; Italy has announced an emergency state around the Bohe River. In late July, in the naked waters of the river bed in the country's longest river, some fishermen discovered a bomb left during the drowned "World War II". The weight.

Drought deeply affects European food, shipping, energy and other fields. In the town of Kobu in the middle of the Rhine, there is an ancient water level measurement station. Any captain who enters the upper reaches of the Rhine will refer to the water level recorded here. After August 12, its water level value dropped to less than 40 cm, which means that the water level is no longer suitable for most ships.

The Rhine, which originated in the Alps, is the largest river in Western Europe and is also known as the European economic "lifeline". Grain, coal, and chemical products rely on this important transportation channel to reach their destination.

For Germany, 80 % of water transportation is completed on the Rhine. Due to the decline in the water level of the Rhine, Holg, Vice President of the German Industry Federation, stated in a statement in mid -August that the closure of chemical or steel plants, oil and other mineral oils and building materials cannot reach their destinations, large shipping volume It is only a matter of time.

Tu Jianjun told China News Weekly that in the context of Russia and Ukraine's conflict this year, the European energy market was in a state of highly balanced state. At present, the European Union is trying to get rid of the high dependence on the import of natural gas in Russia as soon as possible, and Europe is also actively stepping up the reserve energy for the winter. Now, shipping, including coal transportation, is seriously affected by high temperature and drought weather, making European energy supply safety facing a greater challenge.

Andreia, a researcher at the United Research Center of the European Commission's Joint Research Center, said on August 9 that although the comprehensive analysis of retrospective is needed, most of the European regions may be encountered in 500 years, the worst in 500 years drought.

In 2018, Europe encountered a very extreme drought, but that year, the humid conditions in South Europe made crop harvesting. In an interview with the media, Andreia said that on the contrary, most of Europe faced heat waves and drought at the same time this year. "According to my experience, I think this year may be more extreme than 2018."

According to data released on August 3, 63 % of the land in the European Union and the United Kingdom are now in a state of "warning" or "alert". The area involved is almost as large as India's land area.

On August 14, some sunflowers in the fields withered due to drought. Photo/Visual China

In France, the precipitation in July this year was only 9.7mm, which was the least July since 1959. On August 5th, French ecological transformation and land coordination minister, Bei Xu, said that there was no drinking water among the water supply pipelines of more than 100 towns in France. These towns need to rely on water tankers to supply water. The possibility of regional distribution bottle water. The Joint Research Center of the European Commission's Scientific Service Institutions wrote in the latest report published by July 25 that due to the hot and dry summer and dryness, the output of EU corn, sunflowers and soybeans will decrease by 8 % to 9 %.

Nearly half of the world's olive oil is produced from Spain. According to the "Wall Street Journal" reported on August 17, the price of olive oil was pushed up due to the concerns of the hot and dry weather of Spain, and the price of olive oil was pushed up. Data provider MINTEC's market analyst Kyle Holland said that in the past month, the market price of Spain's extra virgin olive oil has risen by about 7 %. Unless the weather conditions in Spain will improve quickly in the next few weeks, the output of olive oil in the harvest season in October will drop by nearly 30 %.

The drought and burning hot waves in the days will make 2022 the worst year in Europe. The London Fire Department said that in the first week of August, they had dealt with 340 outdoor fires, more than 8 times the number recorded in the same period last year. Spain is the country where Europe is most affected by forest fires this year. Since the beginning of this year, Spain has built dozens of mountain fires, and has burned 244,000 hectares of land. It has almost 4 times the average land fire has been burned throughout the year since 2006.

The European Forest Fire Information System (Effis) data shows that from January to mid -August this year, nearly 660,000 hectares of land burned in the European continent, which is 56 % higher than the previous peak, that is, the 420,000 hectares recorded in the same period in 2017. This number is equivalent to one -fifth of Belgian land area. Some analysts pointed out that according to the current trend of mountain fire, the land burned throughout the year this year may be more than 1 million hectares.

In addition, a report from the US media "Politician" pointed out in early August that the magazine conducted a preliminary analysis of data released by several European Statistics Agency, and found that Germany, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands and other countries in the extreme heat waves in July in July in July A total of thousands of people died.

Li Zhaoxin, a researcher at the French National Scientific Research Center and dynamic meteorologist, said in an interview with "China News Weekly" that Western European countries usually have mild climate, cool in summer, frequent precipitation, and evenly distributed. Not well with infrastructure. The high temperature and drought in 2022 have a great impact on the daily life of the society and the people.

People who change by high temperature weather and nature

Droughts usually appear with high temperature. Li Chao, a senior scientist at the Institute of Maxic Planck Institute of Meteorological, Germany, works in Hamburg, Germany. From the perspective of latitude, it is similar to the northernmost Mohe River in China. The maximum temperature here is usually within 33 ° C. However, on July 20 this year, the highest temperature ever in the local area is observed here: 40.3 ° C.

"In the summer of 2022, high temperature and drought incidents occur in the northern hemisphere, especially in western United States, western Europe and southern China, and the vast regions of China." Li Zhaoxin pointed They are different, but they are closely linked to the atmospheric circulation, especially the strength and location of the high -voltage high pressure of the northern hemisphere, which plays a vital role.

Li Chao told "China News Weekly" that in the summer, the entire northern hemisphere area is controlled by the high -pressure system. As a sinking air, it is not conducive to the formation of clouds. The corresponding weather is high temperature and rain. Recently, the high temperature and drought of the southern China are the high -pressure of the Western Pacific subtly. On the European continent, the North Atlantic high pressure.

On July 17, the Glacier near the Swarba Islands of Norwegian Arctic. Studies from satellite data have been used since 1970 that about 1.5 million square kilometers of sea ice melted in the Arctic region, and sea ice has been reduced every year. Photo/Visual China

However, in the past, typhoons from the ocean and storms from high latitudes are brought about warm and humid gases and rainfall, reducing the intensity of subtropical high -pressure effects in the mid -latitude region. obvious.

In addition to Europe, the United States has also witnessed the country's third and hottest July. At the same time, the "Copernicus Climate Change Service Project" observed that the area of ​​the Antarctic sea ice reached the lowest in the 44 -year satellite data record in July July value.

However, under climate change, the dual pinch of high temperature and drought is not an exception that appeared this year. Lu Mengji, a Chinese scholar who has lived in Germany for 40 years, told China News Weekly that Germany has now appeared at high temperatures for three or four consecutive years. Germany is about 47 ° north latitude to 55 ° north latitude. It belongs to the north temperate zone in the climate. For many years here, Lu Mengji said that it rarely exceeds 30 ° C in summer at high temperatures, and in recent years, it sometimes reaches 37 ° C. This has brought a series of new challenges to life.

Britain, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece were originally not used to extreme high temperature threats. For example, from 2013 to 2019, only 3 % to 5 % of families in the UK were equipped with air conditioners. Before the stock, one -fifth of the house was built before 1919, the insulation capacity was poor and the air circulation was limited. Similarly, in the past, the house in Germany was originally designed for insulation, because the winter is relatively cold, but now after climate change, heat dissipation in summer is a big problem. Lu Mengji said that when the temperature is high during the day, the room curtains need to be pulled up to avoid the sun. In some cases, people still need to live on the ground floor of the house to temporarily avoid high temperature. Air conditioning, this home appliance that was rarely needed for German families, gradually began to appear. This year, when Lu Mengji's neighbor's house was re -renovated, the air conditioner had been installed.

When the temperature in the north of the latitude rising north, the entire ecosystem is difficult to adapt to this transformation. When taking care of his own garden, Lu Mengji found that many plants had germinated in April to May in the past, and now it is advanced to March, and then encountering cold waves, these buds cannot survive. He often travels outdoors and forests. He also observed that many artificial coniferous forests have caused decline in the secretion of loose fat in the pest due to water shortage, and trees are more likely to be affected by insect pests. The leaves are yellow and dropped.

Behind extreme weather

Li Zhaoxin pointed out that it cannot be said that the high -temperature drought incident in 2022 is a manifestation of global warming. However, based on the current research conclusions of the climate system, the analysis of mathematical statistics and simulation of the climate system, it can be said that the probability of the global high -temperature drought incident this year has increased in the context of global warming.

Scott Danning, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of Colorado, pointed out in an interview with China News Weekly that scientific research shows that under the climate change caused by human factors, the most affected extreme event has a basic level structure. Observation, physical research, and evidence obtained by computer simulation show that some abnormal weather must be related to climate change.

Specifically, the most direct extreme event of climate change is the heat wave. With the warming worldwide, the heat waves will definitely increase sharply; … Finally, hail and tornado. "The evidence is very clear. The more coal, oil and natural gas burn, the more powerful the earth will warms, and the more likely the possibility of an heat wave in any specific place." He said.

Due to climate change, most mountain glaciers in the world are fading, and many countries near the Arctic are abnormal high temperatures. At the end of July, according to foreign media reports, due to the continuous high temperature weather, the melting area of ​​the Alps Glacier may reach a record high in at least 60 years; in July this year, the temperature of the Arctic Circle once soared to 32.5 ° C. Scientists in the Arctic region even even Wearing short -sleeved shorts and playing volleyball on the ice.

On May 18, 2022, the World Meteorological Organization released the "World Climate Report of 2021", announcing that the average world temperature today is 1.11 ° C. The world. However, Veze Thompson, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol University, told China News Weekly that this is not an equal change, and the warming speed of different regions is different.

On August 11 this year, an article published in "Natural Communications-Earth and the Environment" By analyzing the observation data of the past 43 years, it was found that the speed of North Pole warming was higher than the past. Specifically, from 1979 to 2021, most of the Arctic Ocean warmed at a rate of 0.75 ° C every 10 years, which was almost 4 times the global average.

The warming North pole involves the global climate change in complex forms in turn. At present, in the climate academic world, a hot research issue is how the melting of the north and south poles melted in the middle latitude, especially the high temperature and drought weather in the European continent. In 2015, a paper published in the "Science" magazine mentioned that in addition to exacerbating the winter storm and cold wave, the Arctic warming will also have a impact on summer, such as the deadly waves of Russia in 2010.

In fact, Europe is indeed a "hot spot" area with heat waves in the northern hemisphere, breaking through the high temperature records more than once in the past five years. Ka Ken Huber, a climate scientist at Columbia University in the United States, said in an interview with "Nature" in early August that his team found that Western Europe was very prone to heat waves: in the past 40 years, the frequency of extreme high temperatures in Western Europe was in other mid -latitude regions in the northern hemisphere in the northern hemisphere region 3 ~ 4 times.

The atmospheric power changes brought by the Arctic warming are a possible explanation mechanism, but now it is still an uncertain scientific hypothesis. Specifically, Li Chao, a senior scientist in the Institute of Maxic Planck Institute of Meteorological in Germany, explained that the doctrine believes that the mainland of Europe depends on the rapids of the Arctic region and bring the cold and humid air of mid -to -high latitudes to the European continent. However, as the temperature of the Arctic increases, the temperature gradient between the polar and the low latitudes becomes smaller, and the intensity of the rapid flow shaft has weakened. Li Zhaoxin does not particularly agree with this mechanism. He is more inclined to think that this is a manifestation of a complex climate system, not a causal relationship.

Li Chao said that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions is how much the global temperature increase and what climate will it bring under what scenario. This kind of problem has been studied well at present. After increasing, the weather information is very critical to the society's response to the entire atmospheric circulation. He gave an example to give carbon dioxide emissions in 2070 and the corresponding socio -economic development scenarios. The current research can probably predict the global temperature rise that year. However, it is impossible to predict what kind of in the summer of 2070 weather. Li Zhaoxin also said that extreme weather, performance, quantitative intensity, and more accurate problems in the region, as well as the time and processes of the incident, etc. At present, there are still great uncertain factors and scientific arguments. However, climate scholars said that there are two clear points. One is that climate change will increase global temperatures, and the other is extreme weather in the future. For example, some high -temperature events that are beyond expectations will become more and more frequent.

In Europe, according to IPCC data, by 2050, about half of the European population may face high or very high thermal risks in summer. On August 15th, a new study prediction of the "First Street Foundation" of the US research institution, a new research prediction of colleagues. By 2053, more than 100 million Americans will live in the "extreme high temperature zone". At least one day each year. The high temperature index will exceed about 52 ° C. High temperature index is an indicator of comprehensive air temperature and humidity, which refers to the temperature that the body feels.

"Greenhouse gas reduction is still the fundamental measure to deal with climate change." Li Chao pointed out that it is also important to understand the impact of extreme weather and how to cope with extreme weather. In this regard, in addition to climate scholars, social sciences and other interdisciplinary disciplines should also be added. Come in work together.

Send 2022.8.29 Total Issue 1058 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine title: Why is the summer of 2022 so extreme?

Reporter: [email protected] Intern/Du Xian

Edit: Du Wei

Operation editor: Wang Lin

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