Maybe this year is the coolest summer of the next ten years?

If a large amount of greenhouse gases are continuously discharged and the world does not take emergency operations in the world, similar extreme weather events are likely to become the normal state of the future.

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Beijing News reporter Xie Lian Luan Ruoxi Yao Yuan Editor Zhang Shujing School Divided Jia Ning

"Looking back, this summer is too hot; look forward, this summer may be the coolest summer." On August 17, the World Meteorological Organization Application Meteorological Service Director Robert Stefanski In an interview with the Beijing News reporter, a warning issued a warning, "If the world does not take emergency operations, extreme climatic events such as high temperature drought floods may become the norm in the future."

In July 2022, a rare high temperature heat wave appeared around the world, and many countries reported the extreme high temperature over 40 ° C. In Europe, the continuous heat waves, raging wildfires, and historic droughts in succession have greatly affected the people's lives, agricultural production, and industrial economy. In the United States, more than half of the areas are in a state of drought, and it has ushered in a record high temperature. At the same time, extreme rainstorms have caused severe floods in many states and dozens of people have died. In central South America, southern Africa, and even near the Pacific and Antarctic Peninsula, the temperature in July was higher than the average level.

The World Meteorological Organization previously pointed out that globally, in July 2022, it was one of the hottest three July since it was recorded. The average temperature was nearly 0.4 ° C higher than the reference period from 1991 to 2020. Among them, the land temperature in the northern hemisphere is generally higher than the average level.

"In the past 20 years, the number of extreme climate events in the world has increased significantly." Stervatonki said that this is also consistent with the sixth report of the Special Committee of the Intergovernmental Climate Change of the United Nations, that is, climate change is leading to global extreme climate events in the world More frequent and more serious. He pointed out that the situation in Europe this year is particularly severe, and this also gives us a deeper understanding of the possible future situations in the world.

Extreme climatic events are affecting humans. In this regard, we need to take action to reduce the occurrence of such incidents and reduce their impact on the people, but also to accelerate the emission reduction and fundamentally alleviate the climate crisis. "The most important thing is to act." Standevki emphasized.

The Beijing News reporter connects the World Meteorological Organization of Meteorological Organization, Robert Stewesky. Video screenshot

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Global extreme climate events have increased.

Beijing News: Some people say that 2022 is the hottest year in history, because many areas in the world have experienced extreme high temperature and long heat waves this summer; others say that looking forward to the next decades, 2022 may be the coolest One year, there may be more heat waves and more extreme temperatures than this summer. What do you think of these two claims?

Stervatgi: To some extent, both statements may be correct. This summer, we found that the entire European has experienced one of the hottest July in history, and (global) is the third hot July. It has not ended in 2022, and it has just been from August.

Unfortunately, it is possible for another statement that "this year may be the coolest year". This is also possible. Looking back, this is a very hot July. However, if you look at the sixth evaluation report of the Special Committee of the UN's intergovernmental climate change (IPCC), you can see that global temperatures have been rising.

One of the interesting things is that about 5 years ago, the World Meteorological Organization and many TV show hosts cooperated in the world. They predicted what would be like in 2050 in Europe or their country in 2050. The high temperature we have experienced this summer is close to the temperature of the forecast at that time.

This is a problem facing the world: looking back, this summer is too hot; look forward, if any action is not taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely that this summer will be a cool summer.

Beijing News: According to your research and observation, is it increasing global extreme climate events? Is this year the worst year in recent years?

Stewasky: I think this year can be said to be one of the most serious years. The World Meteorological Organization and related partners have studied extreme climate events from all over the world. It can be seen that the number of extreme climate events has increased in the past 20 years. This is no doubt. But there is one point that the report on extreme climate events has increased significantly, and the impact of this factor needs to be considered. Judging from multiple sources such as climate experts and insurance companies, their perfect data also reflects the same situation.

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Europe is particularly difficult this summer, and the future of extreme weather in the world may be more frequent

Beijing News: Europe seems to be one of the areas that are most affected by extreme climate events this summer. Almost all Europe has encountered the invasion of heat waves, wildfires and historic droughts. Is this summer particularly difficult for Europe?

Stewasky: Yes, Europe has been hit by (extreme climate events). Judging from the current preliminary statistics, this year -especially for Europe, it is one of the hottest and dry years. Of course, droughts and heat waves also appeared in western United States and other areas in the world.

Back in Europe, the most affected are Spain, France, Switzerland, Germany, Britain and other countries. If you look east, Eastern European countries such as Romania, as well as Turkey, Greece and other countries, the temperature this summer is close to the average level. In other words, the most affected is Western Europe. Beijing News: The Sixth Evaluation Report of the IPCC has pointed out that the artificial climate change is leading to more frequent and serious extreme climate events in all parts of the world. So, is the occurrence of extreme climate events in the world this year? Is there any situation beyond your expected situation?

Stewasky: We are surprised every time an extreme climate event occurs. But as we are discussing, in 2022, especially in the situation of Europe in 2022, we have a deeper understanding of what may happen in the future. As you said, this is also consistent with the IPCC report.

As predicted, we are seeing more extreme climate events, which is very frustrated. For this prediction, we have always hoped that it would be wrong. Therefore, the more direct answer is: (more, more serious extreme climate events) are within our expectations, but as a member of human beings, we never want them to appear.

From a scientist's perspective, this is what we expect to happen. The greenhouse effect caused by the increased greenhouse gas, the atmospheric temperature increased, and the ability of the atmospheric water holdings increased. Increased atmospheric water content, more water can evaporate from the land, and at the same time, more water will be precipitated in the sky and clouds. As the IPCC report said, floods and droughts will be more frequent.

This situation may be applicable to Europe. Many people may remember that Germany experienced a serious flood last year. In other words, floods and droughts will not occur at the same time in the same time. However, in different years, there may be severe floods and extreme droughts in the same place.

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Visible and invisible, the multi -level of extreme climate events affects humans

Beijing News: Heat waves and droughts will not only affect people's daily lives, but they are also damaging crop production of many countries. Therefore, many people are worried that these extreme climatic events will deteriorate the current food crisis. What do you think of it? How can the climate crisis affect global food supply?

Stewasky: This is indeed a problem, but other circumstances should also be considered. Take the main raw material wheat of bread as an example. This crop is planted around the world, including China, Argentina, the United States, Australia, etc. The wheat in these countries may be affected. In Europe, the output of wheat and corn may decline, but it may be supplemented in other regions. In addition, the problem of food safety is not only in production, but also in terms of supply and distribution. These problems are very serious.

Back to the problem of drought (influence on the grain crisis). In East Africa, this area has been under normal level for 4 consecutive years, and is still in drought. We have studied this issue for a few months. From the perspective of the World Meteorological Organization, we recommend humanitarian institutions such as food and agricultural organizations and food planning agency (providing assistance). At present, the impact of Russia and Ukraine's conflict on the global food crisis is relatively large, and European drought has not yet had a significant impact.

Beijing News: The heat waves and floods are all visible effects brought by climate change. As climate change may affect global food supply, what other potential indirect effects does it have?

Stewasky: Indeed, wildfires, droughts, and floods are visible to the naked eye brought by climate change. Another main impact of climate change is that although it does not seem very obvious, it also happens, that is, the rise of the sea level. Many scientists in the world are paying attention to the Antarctic, glaciers, and mountains, and they melt faster than expected.

In fact, this may be rarely talked about. Although the overall speed is relatively slow, the sea level is indeed rising. Although it is not as eye -catching as wildfires, as the sea level continues to rise, this will have a huge impact on Shanghai, Nice, Miami and other infrastructure construction and people's living coastal cities. In the future, these cities must also take measures to adapt to climate change.

Beijing News: Climate change has led to the continuous rise in sea planes. Will this affect the marine ecology? This summer's drought has also led to many rivers drying up. What impact can climate change affect marine life?

Stewasky: The increased carbon dioxide in the air will dissolve into the ocean, which will affect the "pH value" of the ocean, that is, the acidification index of the ocean. The acidification index can directly affect marine life, especially shellfish and certain fish. In addition, with the changes of other (climate) models, the flow of wind (the large -scale water flow caused by the force caused by wind on the sea) will also affect the marine environment.

The impact of climate change on rivers and ocean also affects human beings itself. For example, the Rhine originated in glaciers (Alps) and flowing through other areas such as Germany. It is an important transportation channel. Many farmers use water to irrigate crops in the northern river valley. Affected by European drought today, human normal logistics, transportation, agricultural farming and other activities have been disturbed. The changes in marine ecology will further affect the livelihood of fishermen in coastal cities.

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If you do not take action, extreme climate events may become the norm

Beijing News: What does a series of extreme climate this year reflect? Does this indicate that the climate crisis becomes more serious? Will the heat waves and drought this summer become the "new normal" in the future? Stervotki: If a large amount of greenhouse gases are continuously discharged and the world does not take emergency operations in the world, similar extreme weather events are likely to become the normal state of the future. But I want to emphasize that we can still change this bad situation. The future is not doomed. We can strive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. I hope that this will help stabilize the climate. If it does not change and does not act, then this summer's heat waves and droughts will continue to be staged in the future.

Beijing News: In the face of these extreme climate events, what measures should governments take to reduce their impact on the public? For ordinary people, what methods do they adopt in daily life to deal with climate crisis?

Stewasky: First of all, the government should strive to formulate a policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Secondly, the World Meteorological Organization strongly recommends that governments from all countries establish a good early warning system and prepare for extreme climate events. For example, the government must discuss the heat wave warning plan with the National Meteorological Administration and public health institutions to discuss drought and flood issues with the agricultural department.

Ordinary people can also make many efforts to deal with climate crisis. They can do more recycling, travel more bicycles. The public can even take the initiative to promote the government to make changes, asking them to issue policies that help to quickly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Beijing News: In your opinion, what are the most important measures to deal with climate crisis?

Stewasky: There are many mechanisms to help solve climate change problems. This also requires all parties to work together to reduce the occurrence of extreme climate events, help people adapt to climate change, and reduce the impact of climate change. Finally, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow, we must also formulate preparatory plans before affecting.

In fact, our main measure is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, not only carbon dioxide, but also gas such as methane. The public and the government also need to work hard to improve the sustainability of energy use. For example, the development of electric vehicles to use more renewable energy including solar energy and wind energy. These things can allow us to continue our original life and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Beijing News: Although most people now admit the existence of climate change, do you think the problem of climate change has attracted enough attention from the public?

Stewasky: Although I don't know the specific data of the public's attention, as the World Meteorological Organization and other institutions continue to use the media to convey information to the public, and the actual climatic events that occur in Europe this summer, these will be knocked to the public. The alarm bell makes people see that we must take action.

Regarding climate change, many countries have many mechanisms that can be dialogue and discussion. For example, the next UN climate change conference will be held in Egypt. Now it is time to take more action. If more and more people in the world discuss climate change and understand what is happening now, I believe that the world will do better in response to climate change.

Beijing News: In the process of dealing with climate crisis, does the world move in the right direction? What are the shortcomings taken by humans? How to improve?

Stewasky: I think the problem now is "action". There are many mechanisms to help climate change. Every year, various countries attend these conferences about climate change and discuss each other. These are very active measures.

However, from the public to the government's subject, they should cooperate to see what innovative solutions can be proposed for climate change. At present, there are already proper organizational cooperation structures, and there are also correct ideas to solve problems. Now we need to start action. For example, develop and promote renewable energy and reduce the use of fossil fuels. If the whole world wants to do better, it is necessary to take action now.

Editor on duty Kang Hee

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