How can the "fruit" swallow in inflation, can the United States less bitter?

Like many variables in the economy, inflation has the characteristics of strong self -reinforcement and self -actuality, that is, long -term low inflation environment usually makes low inflation deep ingrains, and high inflation environment may make inflation and anchors more and more uncontrollable. Essence On the one hand, inflation expectations are expected, and on the other hand, it is also the spiral of inflation and other economic variables. Therefore, the initial neglect will greatly raise the cost of inflation.

The hallucinations brought by wage growth

When inflation is at high for a long time, the workers will adjust their expectations for future inflation, so as to consider the erosion of actual wages and require higher compensation. Because wage expenses are also an important part of the production cost of enterprises, raised salary will guide enterprises to pay for prices to pass the cost of salary costs to consumers, and finally formed a two -wheeled effect of wages and inflation circulation.

The two-wheel effect of triggering wages-inflation originally required extremely strict conditions. Because for workers, as long as the cost of re -re -aring salary and the cost of establishing a new contract is higher than the cost of living, wages will not be required, and they are willing to tolerate the rise in relative prices of some goods or services.

For the United States, the long -term low inflation environment has greatly reduced the correlation between various categories of goods and services. The change in the price of a single product generally will not spill on other goods and have a great impact on the lives of the workers. Change is often ignored. However, because the US Western policy makers ignore the inflation in the early stage, the starting conditions for wages and inflation spirals are basically available:

Taking the United States as an example, on the one hand, the consumer survey of the University of Michigan shows that workers have paid enough attention to inflation, and believe that inflation will be higher than 5%in one year. The motivation for re -bargaining for salary is already available;

On the other hand, the current labor market is extremely tight. The labor demand expressed by the vacancy/unemployment number of jobs has almost reached the vacancies corresponding to the two positions corresponding to each unemployment population, but the participation rate of labor supply has returned slowly. The rising wages of supply and demand have been launched, and the labor force has also obtained the ability to re -bargain on wages.

Data source: Michigan University

Data source: San Louis Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve's policy judgment in the past year is that the supply and demand of the labor market is not matched as the relative price of other goods rising. Because the constraints of the supply always relieve itself, people who leave the labor market always return, and the rise in wages can always make the labor market re -clear.

However, Fed officials may ignore important structural factors. Since Promoting Ronwalke led the Fed to repel inflation, the Eastern European drama changes in the 1990s, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and China's emerging market economy were integrated into the global trading system, making approximately 1.7 billion people join the global labor market. The higher number of labor has reduced the willingness and ability of bargaining, so that wages are not sensitive to changes in prices, and inflation is expected to be structurally reduced.

With the aging of the global population and the "anti -globalization" restricting the flow of labor, the inadequate control of the new crown pneumonia in the United States in the United States has taken the initiative to withdraw from the market, and the structural factors that have lowered inflation have reversed.

The debt platform is high -built salary

Since the international financial crisis broke out in September 2008, almost 14 years have passed. The global economy has achieved a certain degree of recovery and growth, but the hidden deep -level contradiction has not been fundamentally resolved. And due to excessive water injection, the systemic economic risks caused by too much water are getting worse.

Some major economies will implement irresponsible economic policies while hoping that other countries will pay for their own economic policies. Although the market vitality of micro -subjects based on technological progress and financial innovation has performed in some countries and regions, in general, major economies have fallen into a vicious circle of "debt without debt".

According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as of the end of 2020, the total global debt reached 226 trillion US dollars, accounting for 256%of GDP, and the historical peak in World War II. Among them, the debt growth of developed economies is particularly significant, and its public debt accounts for GDP from about 70%in 2007 to 124%in 2020. During the same period, the growth rate of private debt was relatively mild, from 164%of GDP to 178%.

The "Global debt monitoring" report released by the International Financial Association (IIF) shows that the total global debt exceeded 3 million US dollars in 2021, reaching 3.33 trillion US dollars, a record high. More than 80 % of the debt of the newly increased from emerging market countries, the debt of emerging market countries increased by 8.5 trillion US dollars compared with 2020, exceeding $ 95 trillion. The report shows that the proportion of debt in emerging market countries is about 248%, an increase of more than 20 percentage points from the epidemic.

Of course, due to the differences in statistical caliber, the gap between IMF and IIF's respective statistics on the scale of global debt is large, but both developed countries and emerging economies have a substantial expansion of debt scale. This is an indisputable fact. According to the previous autumn economic forecasting report released by the European Commission, last year, the finance deficit of the euro zone accounted for 7.1%of GDP, and public debt accounted for 100%of GDP. The scale of US federal government debt exceeded the $ 3 trillion mark, of which the new coronary pneumonia's epidemic increased by nearly $ 7 trillion in two years since the outbreak.

For developed economies, the liquidity shrinkage and high interest rates brought by inflation and policy steering will naturally lead to higher debt repayment pressure and asset re -pricing, thereby testing the toughness of the private sector's balance sheet and profit statement, and then dragging down to increase growth Essence

Although emerging markets and low -income countries are less than developing their debt levels, they are even more difficult to face. At the end of 2020, the debt of public and private sectors issued by these countries and regions also reached a record high.

During the loose period, their high returns are in the face of cheap liquidity. The credit risk is reduced, and the financial environment after capital flow is more loose. Once the situation reverses, its domestic and foreign currency debt will be challenged by the cycle of capital outflow and exchange rate fluctuations. The depreciation of capital flow and the depreciation of the local currency promotes each other, and then conducts inflation through exchange rates. The rising inflation and inflation expectations will trigger the next round of capital outflow, and the financial environment will be tightened.

In fact, Latin America and some countries in Eastern Europe have experienced sovereign debt yields and inflation. As long as the inflation momentum of the United States and Western countries will continue, the calibration of its monetary policy will continue. At present, a mild but fragile balance may be broken by the appreciation and tightening liquidity of the US dollar at any time, and as weaker inflation anchor is out of control.

The British "Financial Times" recently said anxiously that the bad inflation data in the United States in June reminds many people in the United States and around the world, especially the most vulnerable people and the most vulnerable developing countries, and will be very difficult in the future.

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Two macro -control -functional finance and super conventional monetary policy