Research on the effect of epidemic response mode shows that the minimum economic loss of the epidemic is controlled

Research on the Effect Model Effective Modeling Model-

Effective control of the epidemic economic loss is the least

Our reporter Guan Xiaoyu Chai Yaxin

The World Health Organization released data on August 18 that the world's cumulative reports of new crowns have exceeded 590 million, of which 6440,163 died. At present, the global epidemic is still high, the virus is constantly mutating, and the ultimate direction of the epidemic is still great uncertainty.

The epidemic has a deep impact on the global economy, and countries have taken measures to respond. However, the attitude and model of the response to the epidemic are very different, and the actual effects are very different.

What impact will different epidemic prevention and control models have on economic development? Recently, some institutions have carried out relevant research, which divided the major country's epidemic response mode into four types: strict prevention and control, tight prevention and control, passive prevention and control, and negative prevention and control, and calculated its economic losses. The results show that the impact of macro -hedging policies is not considered, and the economic loss rate in strict prevention and control models from 2020 to 2021 is 2.3%, and the tight prevention and control, passive prevention and control, and negative prevention and control models are 4.7%, 6.8%, and 6.8%, respectively. 8.3%, indicating the minimum economic loss of the epidemic.

China has adopted a "dynamic clearing zero" resistance policy to achieve the goals that countries have sought more than two years ago: low mortality and as little economic confusion

"Now even patients such as accidents, stroke, and heart disease are difficult to admit to the hospital. We can't save the life that could be saved." According to many media reports, 14 medical institutions in the Kyoto Palace in Kyoto, Japan have received new coronary patients. A joint statement was issued on the first name of the official website of the official website, warning that the epidemic had reached a "disaster level", and the medical system was falling into collapse.

The Asian epidemic continues to be anxious. The new diagnosis data of Japan and South Korea have reached 5.33 million and 2.62 million, respectively, which are the most serious areas except the US epidemic. At the beginning of the epidemic, Japan promptly introduced epidemic prevention policies to advocate people to wear masks and control personnel flow; South Korea implemented nucleic acid testing in large areas, strictly controlled confirmed cases, and effectively controlled the epidemic in the two countries. However, with the continuous extension of the epidemic prevention front, the control measures of the two countries gradually relaxed, causing a passive situation.

As a representative of strict prevention and control, China has been recognized by the outside world. The US "Wall Street Journal" website entitled "China's New Crown Infection" Dynamic Clear Zero "policy contains the teaching and benefit of other countries. Once seeking goals: low mortality and low economic confusion.

The practice of anti -epidemic in various places has repeatedly stated that scientific prevention and control, accurate prevention and control are the most effective and minimum prevention and control. Only by responding quickly and scientific accuracy, use the most effective way to block the chain of the epidemic in the shortest time, and achieve "dynamic clearing" at the fastest speed, can we minimize human, material resources, and socioeconomic costs, and create more for economic and social development to create more Timing and conditions.

In the first half of this year, the average daily business volume of express delivery was resumed to more than 300 million pieces, exceeding the level of the same period last year; in the first six months of this year, the national railway sent a total of 1.946 billion tons of goods, an increase of 5.5%year -on -year. Historical records; the Chinese retail industry prosperity index in July was 50.2, and it returned to the expansion range in the traditional retail off -season ... Recently, a number of data showed that my country's economy is steadily recovering.

Such achievements are not easy.

Since the discovery of Omikon BA.4 and BA.5 in early 2022, for several months, the strains spread to Europe, America, and Asia, bringing a new round of global epidemic counterattack.

In May, BA.4 and BA.5 were detected for the first time from the input case. Since then, Xi'an, Dalian, Zhuhai, Shanghai, Tianjin, Qingdao, Beijing and Hainan, Xinjiang and other places have discovered BA.5 Asian branches or their evolutionary branches. Generally speaking, due to the fast transmission of BA.5 variants and strong immune escape ability, it has caused multiple local gathering epidemic, and the domestic prevention and control situation is severe and complicated.

As of August 10, there were nearly 2,000 cumulative infections in Anhui, nearly 4500 cases accumulated in Gansu, and more than 3700 infected infected people in Guangxi ... Recently, more than a thousand infected regions in Omiqoron were in a short period of time. Realize the newly positive zero of society.

"The achievements of these results are fundamentally that we unwaveringly adhere to the general strategy of the" external defense input, internal defense rebound 'and the general policy of the "external defense input, internal defense rebound', and take scientific and strict prevention and control measures to quickly and control it to quickly and control it to quickly and control it. Fast system, resolutely control the spread of the epidemic. "On August 10, Guo Yanhong, a supervisory commissioner of the National Health and Health Commission Medical and Health and Health Bureau, said at the press conference of the State Council's joint prevention and control mechanism.

Guo Yanhong summarizes the experience into six aspects: first, the implementation of flat command and scheduling, with problems -oriented, take targeted prevention and control measures; Fast -chasing Yang, fast -flowing, fast inspection, fast transfer, fast isolation, fast diagnosis, fast report, fully improve the efficiency of the treatment of the epidemic; third, coordinate resources, unified dispatch, unified command, and quickly fight the annihilation war; fourth is to carry out efficiently. Nucleic acid testing, timely control the risk of social communication; fifth is fast flow, check the risks, and strive to not leak a household and one person; sixth is to strengthen community management, strengthen the responsibility of the four parties, and establish and improve the common prevention and control system of the whole society. Strictly prevent new infection increment.

The national economy continues to recover, the prevention and control of the epidemic is the prerequisite, stabilizing the economy is the foundation, coordinating development and security are the stable growth of industrial production, the service industry continues to recover, the market sales continue to grow, the scale of fixed asset investment has expanded, the growth and export growth of goods is compared Quick, the employment situation is generally stable ... On August 15th, the economic operation of the first seven months of the first seven months of this year announced by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that with the continuous effectiveness of the policies of high -efficiency and coordinating epidemics and economic and social development, the national economy continued to recover. Essence

The performance of the Chinese economy in the second quarter is also remarkable, and the economy in most areas is basically stable. From the perspective of growth, the GDP of 26 regions in 31 provinces and regions in the second quarter remained increased, accounting for 83.9%; from the perspective of employment, the unemployment rate of urban survey in 19 provinces and regions and cities was lower than the national average; from In terms of price, the price of prices in most areas is mild, and the consumption prices of 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities have increased by less than 3%year -on -year.

On July 28, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized that "the requirements for the implementation of the epidemic should prevent the epidemic, the economy must be stabilized, and the development of the economy must be a good trend, focusing on stabilizing employment and stable prices, maintaining economic operations reasonably in reasonable operations. Division, strive to achieve the best results. "

"Epidemic prevention and control is the prerequisite, stabilizing the economy is the foundation, coordinated development and security are guarantees." From the perspective of Dong Yu, executive deputy dean of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University, these three principles are actually how the Party Central Committee is properly properly applied to the present. The strategic consideration of dealing with the relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic development is a concentrated manifestation of the prominent problems of economic development with systemic concepts.

Needless to say, the local area epidemic has repeatedly affected the Chinese economy. "Looking back at the first half of the year, due to factors such as logistics interruption, poor circulation, and suspension of production caused by the epidemic, it has caused some trouble for one of the most developed regions of China's economy. This also provides us with a very important experience. That is to effectively control the epidemic, the minimum economic loss. "Dong Yu said.

Dong Yu further explained that if he can discover the epidemic signs as soon as possible, and control the epidemic in a relatively small range as soon as possible, it will not interfere with the economic development and social life in the large society. "If you calculate the big account, we can in exchange for the overall stability of the economic and social stability through a certain epidemic prevention and control measures, in exchange for the price stability, and the export is basically stable.

The impact of the epidemic is of course not only the economy. Dong Yu said that despite the decrease in the proportion of severe illness brought by Omikon, China's population base is large, and the small incidence of severe illness will bring absolutely large cases. "Especially the elderly and children may face a greater threat in life and health. This is unbearable for any responsible government."

Liang Wannian, the leader of the expert group of the National Health and Health Commission's epidemic response work, played an analogy: the "dynamic clearance" general policy and a series of anti -epidemic measures adopted by China are equivalent to buying a copy for 1.4 billion people in China. To cope with the insurance of uncertain factors such as changes in epidemic and virus mutation, "the cost of buying insurance is to sacrifice a small number of people's consumption, the purpose is to maximize the overall social benefits."

Practice is the most powerful persuasion. In 2021, the epidemic brought by the deer tower mutations and more than 20 provinces. my country adheres to the general policy of "dynamic clearance" and quickly adopts prevention and control measures to face Delta mutation strains. Control the epidemic with a latent period (14 days). This also fully shows that "dynamic clearing zero" is the best choice for China's current national conditions and science. It is the best choice for my country's current anti -epidemic situation. Control strategy.

In 2020, my country became the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth. In 2021, the GDP increased by 8.1%over the previous year, and the average increase in two years was 5.1%. The economic growth rate ranked among the top global economies. It can be seen that the "dynamic clearing zero" is in line with China's national conditions and better balances the relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of socioeconomic and economic development.

Negative and epidemic prevention cannot save the economy. Some countries are constantly concessions to political interests in scientific prevention and control, caught in a vicious circle of "tightening-letting go-outbreak-tightening-no release"

When the new crown virus is still raging around the world, some countries choose to gradually relax or even completely relieve epidemic prevention measures. Taking the country with the worst global epidemic, the United States as an example, reviewing the road of resistance in the United States, scientific prevention and control continuously concessions on political interests, the epidemic conspiracy theory is very arrogant, and the most basic epidemic prevention measures such as masks and vaccines will arouse strong party factions Disputes and public opinion tear, caught in a vicious circle of "tightening-letting go-worsening-tightening-re-release".

The health of the United States is the direct price of negative epidemic prevention. Data from the University of Johns Hopkins in the United States show that as of now, a total of more than 93.63 million cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed, and a total of more than 1.04 million cases of death. The total number of new crowns and deaths in the world ranks first in the world. According to the US Broadcasting Corporation reported on August 10, since the beginning of this year, more than 200,000 people in the United States have died of new crown pneumonia.

Some people think that "lying flat" is to save the economy. What is the economic performance of the United States in the negative epidemic prevention mode?

On July 28, local time, the first estimated data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the annualization of GDP (GDP) in the second quarter of this year decreased by 0.9%month -on -month. %, This year, the US GDP has grown negatively for two consecutive quarters. The current US economy is facing the "three highs" challenge -high inflation risk, high debt risk and high asset bubble risk. Experts point out that this is closely related to poor epidemic prevention, irresponsible finance and monetary policy.

"Due to the poor prevention of the U.S. government, the epidemic has spread rapidly, which leads to problems such as labor shortage, slowing industrial production, and interruption of supply chain." Diao Daming, researcher at the National Development and Strategic Research Institute of Renmin University of China and deputy director of the American Research Center, told reporters The chain crisis leads to insufficient supply of consumer goods, and many American families cannot afford or cannot buy necessary living materials at all.

On August 14, the Fox Business News pointed out in the report that high inflation has also caused serious financial pressure on most American families. They were forced to pay more fees for daily necessities such as food and rent.

After the outbreak, the U.S. government regarded "rescue the market" and implemented unprecedentedly large -scale loose fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the US economy rebound. "U.S. resistance '' lying flat 'is not to save the economy, but to save some people's special interests. These measures make the wealthy American class make a lot of money. Sacrifice. "Diao Daming said.

"For the epidemic, we (the United States) is unprepared and inadequate. We should have been fully prepared than many other countries, but we are still trapped in economic difficulties." In an interview with the media, Chad Wolf said that the United States had experienced epidemic conditions and had encountered an economic crisis, but he never experienced the two as it is now.

"Faced with the epidemic, the so -called 'leadership' and the political decline behind the United States by their own private interests directly lead to the‘ double losses ’“ double losses' on the two runways of epidemic prevention and economy. ”Diao Daming said.

Science and precision and dynamic clearing, the maximum prevention and control effect is achieved at the minimum cost, and the basic market for economic and social development

The chain economic response caused by negative epidemic prevention has also brought serious "sequelae" to the global economic and financial stability. "The negative overflow of US economic policies is very strong, and other countries continue to face the pressure of input inflation, which brings great uncertainty to the global economy." Diao Daming said.

"The current economic transformation policy in the United States is a selfish recovery. Through the" purchase of American goods plan "policies, it intends to leave the economic stimulus effect in China, and let the world bear the inflation and other negative effects." Modern China Modern China. Sun Lipeng, an associate researcher at the American Research Institute of the Institute of International Relations, believes that fundamentally, the United States is trying to maintain its own economic hegemony and weaken the global industrial division of labor cooperation. Its irresponsible and selfish policies will be shadowed by the global economic recovery prospects.

The spread of the epidemic has caused the people's life and health to be threatened, which is an obvious consequence of negative epidemic prevention. For economic and social development, the erosion of negative epidemic prevention is more subtle, with long -term and accumulation, and reflected in the insufficient labor supply and tight supply chain. Under the stimulus of large -scale super -strong policies, economic performance may be improved in the short term, but it is actually at the cost of a series of problems such as rising debt levels and high inflation levels. The cost is high and endless.

The epidemic is the biggest uncertain factor in the current global economic growth. When calculating the economic account, we need to first see that the epidemic will have a certain impact on the economy and society of various countries. The virus is the culprit of dragging the economy, but there is a difference between different prevention and control strategies and measures on reduction and control of these negative effects.

"Lying flat" is not advisable, "lying down" is impossible. For the economic benefits brought about by the cost of preventing and controlling and controlling the cost, the key is to count the big accounts, long -term accounts, and dynamic accounts. The soul of dynamic clearing is to discover early and control early, and eliminate the epidemic in the bud. It turns out that the more adherence to the dynamic clearance, the sooner the epidemic can be controlled, the smaller the impact of economic and social development, and it can create a good environment for continuous development. From the perspective of overall and in the long run, in order to prevent the spread of the epidemic in accurately controlling the epidemic situation for a period of time, in exchange for the normal production and life of the most vast region and the masses, and a more loose and stable economic and social development environment.

Since the occurrence of the epidemic, we have taken out a dialectical way to prevent and control the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development. Since the beginning of this year, the epidemic situation has been delayed, the international environment is complicated and severe, and the tasks of stability in domestic reform and development have become more difficult and heavy. As long as we adhere to scientific and precise and dynamic, we will definitely achieve the maximum prevention and control effect at the minimum price, protect the health of the people to the greatest extent, stabilize the basic market for economic and social development to the greatest extent, and win historical initiative in high -quality development.

【Edit: Huang Yuhan】

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