This internal fight in the United States will be more severe than civil war

The FBI raid search for Trump Lake Manor is still fermenting. In the past few days, the two parties have put a ruthless talk and attacked each other around whether Trump violated the "three sins" of federal law.

Barbara Walter, a professor of political science at the University of California, posted on the New Republic magazine that the United States has appeared "all signals that trigger the civil war."

Diao Daming, a researcher at the National Development and Strategic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with Chang'an Street Knowledge (WeChat ID: CapitalNews) that the United States has currently appeared in the United States that is difficult to resolve political confrontation, imbalance in development and social tear, which has a negative impact on the United States. More severe than a civil war.

It's not just as simple as Trump's conviction

Knowledge: Is it a coincidence that the FBI in the key stall of the midterm election is to Trump?

Diao Daming: In fact, in addition to FBI, in addition to Trump's searches on the Haihu Manor on the grounds that Trump suspected of retaining and handling government confidential file documents on the grounds of the government confidential archives, there are also many relatively independent investigations.

The House of Representatives of the United States opened a special survey of the Capitol Mountain Riot on January 6, 2021, and even set up an investigation committee. In less than two months from early June to the end of July this year, 8 public hearing will be conducted. It

The chief prosecutor of New York State is investigating whether Trump's family business and business institutions are inappropriate;

Georgia Procuratorate launched a criminal investigation of Trump tried to intervene in the state of the state's elections ...

Although these surveys are nominally aimed at Trump's four -year period and the extreme behavior that may be made during the regime of the 2020 election regime, in the case of less than three months from the midterm election, multiple surveys performed in the same frequency. It has obvious characteristics of party disputes.

This is obviously to form a trend of suppression of Trump and the Republican Party, help the Democratic Party to raise the election, weaken the role of Trump in the midterm election as much as possible, and the possibility of weakening the president directly in 2024. Political purpose.

At present, the relevant survey may really affect the mid -term elections, but the degree of impact depends on the further interaction between the two parties in the future, especially Trump's subsequent response.

If Trump continues to express his willingness to run for the next president, the relevant investigations led by the Democratic Party are likely to have more controversial evidence of Trump.

If this situation occurs, Trump is likely to depict relevant investigations as "political pursuits", and it does not even rule out that the presidential election was announced in advance in advance, so that the two parties that should have been staged in 2024 will be hot and heated in advance in advance in advance. Elections in the mid -2022.

On the 10th, Trump waved his hand when he left the Trump Tower. Source: Visual China

In comparison, the topic of Trump's related investigations continues to carry out a certain help for the Democratic Party, but it is not enough to reverse the downturn of the Democratic Party. In particular, it is not enough to reverse the Democratic Party ’s house in the House of Representatives of the Congress.

The US Minister of Justice claims that the search for the Trump Lake Manor decides to meet policies and procedures. Source: Visual China

As for whether Trump will be convicted, there is still a lot of suspense.

On the one hand, the US judicial system is completely politicized. In terms of Trump's conviction, political factors may be above the law.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party ’s purpose of Trump’ s investigation is to minimize Trump ’s political influence and political prospects, rather than simply convicing him.

A political show of "worse"

Knowledge: Trump said that the behavior of FBI broke into the former presidential house broke the precedent. Why did Trump become the first "target"? What new characteristics of this political clearing behavior reflects the US political ecology?

Diao Daming: Searching for the former president's residence is indeed the first time in the history of the United States. This reflects not only some extreme characteristics of Trump's personal personal characteristics, but also exposure the loopholes of the American political system and the chaos of political ecology.

On the one hand, the United States can choose Trump that does not comply with any political rules and wanton anti -construction figures who want to disrupt rules as presidents.

Moreover, during his tenure, the political system in the United States could not make necessary and effective restrictions on it, forming an extreme political ecology.

In other words, Trump can become a manifestation of the decline of President in the United States, and Trump, as a former president, directly challenged the existing political system and ecology of the United States, exacerbated the disorder and decline of US politics, and then appeared This former presidential residence has been searched historically.

On the other hand, the party's struggle reported on the other hand also caused US politics to fall into a vicious cycle of further control.

Trump's private lawyer Giuliani said that if Trump is elected as the next president, the first thing he will do is to search for every house in Biden.

I have to say that if the Republican party re -on stage in 2024, the possibility of subsequent political farming is indeed high. This reveals at least two problems:

First, the situation of party and government tools in the US judicial system is even more obvious. The survey that can be conducted by obviously has been carried out in the key nodes of the midterm elections. This is obviously the performance of the US judicial system in serving the special interest groups behind specific political parties or behind it.

Politicians Tocqueville said, "In the United States, almost all political issues will become judicial issues sooner or later." On the other hand, justice will inevitably be reduced to the existence of party struggle and fight for the party. Secondly, the deception of the United States election politics has been clearly exposed, and it is no better.

This year's midterm elections should have focused on economic and people's livelihood issues such as inflation, but these problems are rooted in the structural contradictions of the United States. The two parties cannot be solved by themselves, but at least they should be carried out around these issues, rather than the topic of whether Trump's guilty issues cover the original focus.

One is suspected of guilty, and the other is the incompetence of governance. The two parties have turned the midterm elections into worse and bad. No one is interested in the party's struggle election, which is interested in responding to public opinion. In fact, it is a political show that fools voters.

The consequence of the internal fighting is more severe than the civil war

Knowledge: It is reported that after the FBI searched Trump's Haihu Manor, a man drove the road barricade of the parliamentary building, and federal law enforcement officers received multiple death threats. The FBI said that the United States was facing the threat of "civil war" and "armed rebellion". Do you think the United States is about to usher in a chaos? Will the United States outbreak of civil war?

Diao Daming: I personally think that in the future, with the further deepening of the relevant survey, and the extreme mobilization of Trump to protect his own political and private, the tendency of the American party to be extreme and violent will be more obvious, and it may further tear up further. Crash American society.

If an extreme conservative forces appear against violent incidents of federal government agencies or certain politicians, the possibility of continuous turbulence in society will increase significantly.

Moreover, under the negative state of the extreme, fragmented, and tribalization of the United States, in fact, any election and so -called mobilization are tearing American society and exacerbating the fierce confrontation between the two or even many parties.

On the 14th, Trump's supporters rally near the Trump National Golf Club. Source: Visual China

Due to the economic connection between the parties, the embedded distribution of liberals and conservative groups, and the differences in the degree of extremeization of different issues, the United States is not easy to appear again similar to the Civil War similar to the Civil War.

However, the political confrontation, imbalances and social tear that are difficult to resolve within the United States will continue to exist. This internal fighting is more destructive to the United States than a civil war.

(Original title: This internal fighting will be more severe than the civil war)

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