Can the "Angle Act" really reduce American inflation?

According to US media reports, on August 12, the House of Representatives of the United States Congress passed the Democratic Party's "Aflation Act" proposed by the Democratic Party with 220 votes in favor and 207 votes. A total of about 430 billion U.S. dollars in the bill, which involves climate, medical insurance, tax reform, etc. Earlier, the bill has been passed in the Senate of Congress. In the next step, the bill will officially take effect after being signed by US President Biden.

Since the beginning of this year, the high -inflation clouds have always been shrouded in the US economy, and have hit new highs over 40 years. The "Angle Act" Act is called "one of the most important legislations in the past ten years" by some American politicians. Some analysts pointed out that from the analysis of its specific content and the process of promulgation, the bill that was named "inflation reduction" could be "named and deputy", and I am afraid to get a question mark.

"Old Wine" is installed in the "new bottle"

According to a comprehensive US media report, the "Angle Act" Act is 755 pages. From the perspective of specific content, the bill will increase the total government expenditure of 430 billion US dollars, while creating a fiscal revenue of nearly $ 740 billion. In government expenditure, a record of US $ 369 billion is used to cope with climate change. The goal is to reduce carbon emissions by 40%by 2030; $ 64 billion to reduce the price of prescription drugs. At the same time, the bill also authorized federal medical insurance to negotiate at the price of 100 drugs in the next 10 years to promote the reform of prescription drug pricing. In the field of taxation, the bill will levy 15%of companies with a minimum tax of 15%of companies and collect taxes to people with more than $ 400,000 or more, and spend $ 80 billion to improve the tax law enforcement capabilities of the IRS. In the previous negotiations of the Senate, Democratic MPs also added taxes on stock repurchase.

The analysis pointed out that the main purpose of the Bayeng government's launch of the "Inflation Act" can be summarized as "one liter, one drop and one increase", that is, to reduce the federal government's fiscal deficit through the "promotion" tax; The impact on some people; encourage the development of new energy and new energy vehicles through "increase" subsidies to cope with the inflation problems caused by high oil prices. Most leader of the United States Senate and Democratic Senator Chake Schu Mo pointed out that "the introduction of economic legislation on climate change and improving people's livelihood is a cause of the Bayeng government that has been promoting but difficult."

Although the "Ansp Flame Act" was packaged by some Democratic politicians as the "good recipes' responding to inflation, in fact, the bill is just" new bottle of old wine ", which is the" Reconstruction of the Better Future Act "proposed by the Bayeng government in 2021". "Shrink version".

Xiao He, an associate researcher at the Institute of Economics and Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with the Overseas Edition of the People's Daily that the initial version of the "Reconstruction of the Better Future Act" was as high as 3.5 trillion US dollars, but due to the large scale, it was suffered by West Virginia State Senator Manchin's opposition from the Democratic Party. In November 2021, a package of expenditure plan that shrunk to $ 175 trillion was approved by the Democratic House of Representatives, but was blocked in the Senate. After that, Manchin publicly criticized the bill in financial "irresponsible". In July of this year, as the US inflation continued to be high and the midterm elections of Congress approached, the Democratic Party reached an internal compromise under pressure. After the bill was changed, it was re -raised on the agenda.

Highlighting political polarization

Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of U.S. residents has maintained a high level and showed an upward trend, reaching 9.1%in June. In July, inflation fell slightly to 8.5%, but it was still at a historical high. In the context of high -inflation urgently needed "cooling", the "Inflation Act", which sounds straightforward, does not respond in Congress.

Comprehensive Reuters and other foreign media reported that when the "Angle Act" was voted by the Senate, the agenda took nearly 27 hours, which can be described as a "marathon". With the 50 seats of the Democratic and Republican parties, the Democratic Party Vice President Harris, who concurrently served as the Senate Speaker, received a key vote, broke the deadlock of 50 to 50, and eventually promoted the bill. When the House of Representatives voted, in the case of 220 and 210 seats in the Democratic and Republican seats, the bill was also passed with a smaller advantage of more than ten votes.

"From the perspective of the voting results, the" Angle Act of Inflation "highlights the serious political polarization phenomenon in the United States. The bill has hardly received the support of cross -party factions. This means that in the Senate voting, the Democratic Party must win the support of each member, otherwise the bill will "abortion". For some Democratic Molles of Democratic Party who opposed opinions, the bill made a separate compromise.

Comprehensive foreign media reports, the Senate Democratic Party encountered a "deceleration zone" set by Republicans when promoting the "Inflation Act". For example, Republican councilors put forward a revision on the clause of 15%of large companies in legislation, hoping to remove some private equity companies and all its companies from the scope of taxation. In the end, the amendment was passed with the support of six Democrats such as the gentle Democratic Democratic Sneuna.

Analysts pointed out that "compromise" is the background of the "Inflation Act". In the Senate voting, Democrats can only avoid the 60 votes required by the Senate's lengthy debate by the way they are called "budget adjustment" and pass the proposal under the situation of Republicans' opposition. Correspondingly, this strategy requires absolute unity within the Democratic Party. "Overall, the" Angle Act of Aflation "is the product of the Bayeng government that is continuously blended, balanced, and compromised in the Washington Political Jungle." A reporter from the Overseas Edition of the People's Daily pointed out that "the" inflation reduction "of the" Ying Jing "is also made to make great adjustments in clean energy, climate change, and tax issues, such as reducing clean energy funds and emission reduction projects, extended emission reduction and emission reduction Plan the timetable to ensure the support of the mild faction in the Democratic Party, and at the same time give the voters who are dissatisfied with inflation. "

Real effects are doubtful

After the Senate's "thrilling pass", Biden posted on social media that the bill would reduce prescription drugs, medical insurance and energy prices, which is "the victory of the American people and the loss of the privilege." As the main promoter of the bill, Shu Mo also praised: "The bill will become a 'turning point'."

However, how practical impacts this bill will have, it still needs to be observed. Expert analysis believes that the bill does not completely solve the current American inflation, and it is more like the "publicity slogan" launched by the Democratic Party to respond to the support rate of the midterm elections.

Diao Daming pointed out that when the midterm elections approached, the Bayeng government launched the "Angle Bonus Act" with certain political considerations. The Democratic Party tries to give feedback on the inflation problem that voters care most about to reduce criticism and pressure from the Republican Party. However, this so -called "Angle Bonus Act" has certain deception and confusion. For example: tax increase measures in the bill can increase the federal government's fiscal revenue, but it cannot directly promote the inflow of funds into the real economy, stimulate the production of consumer goods, and effectively alleviate the urgent high inflation problem in the United States. Even if tax leverage can shape some market behaviors, it will be a long -term process.

Zhang Manan, deputy minister and researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, analyzed in an interview with the people's Daily overseas reporter that the US midterm elections are approaching, and the Democratic Party does not have an advantage in support. The Biden government pushed a series of bills to try to add points to the election. However, once the Democratic Party defeats in the midterm election, Biden may become a "lame president", and its administration will be greatly constrained. Whether the "Angle Act" can be actually implemented and how long it can be implemented is unknown at present.

It is worth noting that the "Inflation Act" also stipulates the car supply chain: after 2023, cars using Chinese battery components will not be subsidized, and some key minerals from China will also face procurement restrictions. The alternative is to gradually adopt battery components from North America. The organization "Auto Innovation Alliance" representing the main automakers' organizations recently warned that according to the bill, only cars assembled in North America are eligible to obtain the discount. Once the bill takes effect, most of the existing electric vehicle models will not be able to get $ 7,500 Tax credits. This provision will endanger the target of 40%to 50%of electric vehicle sales in 2030 in 2030.

Zhang Manan pointed out that the recent "Chip and Science Act" and "Inflation Acts" adopted by the United States are all making articles around the supply chain, trying to use these mandatory means to return the manufacturing industry to the United States. "The United States under the banner of" cutting inflation ", but is destroying the international division of labor based on comparative advantages, seriously damaging the global industrial chain supply chain structure and economic globalization process. This will not only solve the problem of domestic inflation in the United States, but also increase production costs. Further raising the level of inflation in the United States and global inflation. Multinational companies and markets voted with their feet. The practice of artificially carried out the "decourse '' 'break chain' is irrational and invalid." (Reporter Li Jiabao)

Original title: Can the "Angle Act" Act really cut American inflation? (Global hotspot)

"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (10th edition of August 16, 2022)

- END -