US media: The total population of the world is about to cross the 8 billion mark, will it be a peak?

The American "Wall Street Journal" article on August 12, the original title: The total number of global population is about to cross the 8 billion mark. Some opinions believe that the total number of global population will be close to the peak. Getting. The United Nations predicts that this day will be November 15, but people cannot completely accurately confirm that date.

The main population problem is not the increase in quantity

Since the 1960s, when the global population has reached 3 billion for the first time, it has increased at an average of 1 billion people every 10 years. Therefore, we can naturally speculate that the 9 billion population mark and the 10 billion population mark are not far away from us, and the United Nations calculates this way.

However, it is worth noting that when humans cross the 8 billion total population, the global population may never reach 10 billion, or even 9 billion. The major population problems in the world are not the continuous growth of the population, but the decrease in the number of countries, the aging of the population, and the continuous reduction of the labor population. We are not talking about the scene of the meteor impact on the earth and the end of the world, but the prediction of the population trend in front of people, including the sharp decline in the birth rate of the world in the world. We may reach the peak of the total population before the next generation.

"Fast Development Plan"

The United Nations predictions are the most well -known, but the forecasts of other institutions have gradually been paid attention to in recent years, including the predictions of Academician Wolfgang Royz, a famous population expert. These predictions believe that the global population peak is coming, and the total population is lower than the United Nations' forecast value.

Royz explained that two key issues determine whether his prediction or the United Nations prediction will eventually get closer to the facts. First, what speed will Africa's fertility rate decrease. Secondly, whether the fertility rate of the country with a low fertility rate will be restored in the future, and the speed of recovery.

The United Nations uses the historical trends of each country to predict the population and calculate the past performance of other countries in similar conditions. In contrast, Ruyz's prediction model not only studies the historical model, but also explores the reasons behind the rise or decrease of birth rate. An important factor that the United Nations prediction model is not included is the education level. In simple terms, when people, especially women, have more education opportunities, the fertility rate will be reduced. However, the United Nations population Fladimila Cantoova explained that the UN predictive model has actually taken into account factors such as development, urbanization, and women's education level, because it is based on historical data of various countries with similar changes. Called.

According to the forecast of the United Nations, by the end of this century, the total population of the African mainland will increase from 1.3 billion to 3.9 billion. Considering the important factor of "education", Ruyz's "baseline scheme" predicts that the total African population will increase to 2.9 billion during this period. According to the prediction of the "rapid development plan" by him, the total population of Africa will only be 1.7 billion at the end of this century. The "rapid development" in this plan refers to the significant improvement of medical and health and education, the level of human welfare increase, the decline in mortality, and the level of immigration levels maintain the middle value.

Other different elements in the United Nations prediction are the problem of rising fertility rates. The United Nations predicts that from 2022 to 2030, the fertility rate of 50 countries around the world will rise. In contrast, Royz proposed the "low fertility trap hypothesis", that is, the fertility rate drops to a country with a birth rate of less than 1.5 children in each woman. child.

Royz said that the global epidemic that has lasted for more than two years will also make it difficult for babies to appear. As people are worried about their emotions, the birth rate will decline significantly. "When you are deeply worried about the future, you will choose to continue waiting."

Beyond

The United Nations predicts that by the end of the 1950s, the global population will reach 10 billion. According to Royz's "baseline scheme", the global population will reach the peak of 9.67 billion in 2070, and will then decrease slowly. Ruyz's "rapid development plan" predicts that the global population will reach the peak of 8.7 billion in 2050.

Ruyz said: "Actually, the global population is meaningless. The so -called meaningful depends on what people can do, which skills they master, and whether they have enough food." Lun, Wang Xiaoxiong))