China's population is undergoing unprecedented turns: how to deal with negative growth

New situation of negative population growth

It will have a profound impact on China's economic and social development

Must be planned as soon as possible and actively respond

At present, China's population development is undergoing an unprecedented turning point. In July of this year, the "World Population Outlook 2022" report released by the United Nations stated that China may have a negative population growth in 2023. In August, the National Health and Health Commission issued a article in the Magazine Magazine, pointing out that the growth rate of China's total population has slowed significantly, and the "14th Five -Year Plan" period will enter the negative growth stage. The new situation of negative population growth will have a profound impact on China's economic and social development, and must be planned and responded as soon as possible.

The emergence of negative population growth is the result of economic and social development, mainly due to low fertility rates. This is an important characteristics of industrialized and urbanized society. It is affected by a series of factors such as economic development, social progress, cultural changes, and urbanization. It is difficult to reverse in the short term. At present, some European countries and Japan have experienced negative growth of the population for this reason. Since the 1990s, with the development of society and economy, China's total fertility rate has dropped below the level, and the natural growth rate of the population has turned from positive to negative, accumulating a huge inertia for negative population growth. In this context, the type of population reproduction will eventually show a state of "low birth rate, low mortality, negative natural growth rate", and the negative growth of population is an inevitable development trend.

The experience of different countries shows that the direction of population growth on the economic impact is ultimately the result of multiple synergy. The specific mechanism also needs to depend on more practice to verify. However, the negative growth and economic growth can coexist, which is currently known, although the differences between countries are very different. How does the academic community affect economic conclusions on the negative population growth: some opinions believe that its impact is unfavorable, including reduced population reduction and aging of age structure, decreased economic growth, decreased effective demand, decreased consumption expenditure, decreased corporate profits, savings savings And investment decrease, etc.; There are also opinions that it is beneficial to economic growth. When the population is negative, the labor investment decreases, which has caused the transformation of labor -intensive technology to human capital dense technology, which is conducive to promoting the transformation of economic growth and sustainable economic growth; It also believes that its impact on economic growth is not sure, and there are great heterogeneity in various countries and regions.

Generally speaking, the impact of the negative population growth is long -term, gradual, and slow. You don't have to panic, but you must plan and actively respond early. The experience of other countries has shown that once the negative growth of the population appears, the total population of population will continue to be reversed in the short term. In the face of the unavoidable trend of China's population growth in the future, it is necessary to actively plan and turn "crisis" as "machine":

First, formulate a development strategy of actively responding to negative population growth. According to China's economic and social development strategy and future population development trend, it should be studied and formulated as soon as possible to develop the development strategy of negative population growth, coordinated and coordinated various policies and measures related to the development of the population, clarified the potential risks of the negative population growth, and formulated Corresponding response plan.

Second, improve labor participation rates and stabilize labor supply. Implement the delayed retirement policy, fully explore the human resources of the elderly; strengthen support for families, reduce employment discrimination, and promote women's employment.

Third, improve labor productivity and tap the quality of population quality. On the one hand, further improve the quality of labor, develop the quality dividends of population quality from various aspects such as health and education; on the other hand, promote innovation, accelerate the transformation of economic development methods, accelerate the construction of an industrial system that matches human resources, and fully absorb great increases Quality labor, thereby promoting high -quality economic development.

Fourth, make full use of regional differences to achieve effective allocation of labor in the country. There is a large difference between urban and rural and regions. It is necessary to make full use of urban and rural and regions. It is necessary to fully use it, comprehensively reduce the cost of population flow, improve the population flow policy system, reduce the obstacles of urbanization and citizenization of agricultural metastasis, and promote the reopening of labor in the regions and intervals. Configuration to promote the transfer and upgrade of the industry between regions, promote the high -quality development of urban and rural integration and regional coordination, and provide strong motivation for the sustainable development of the economy.

Fifth, make full use of the two domestic and international markets to promote the balance of production and consumption. Drawing on the experience of developing countries to deal with negative population growth, actively do a good job in the introduction of international talents, and do a good job in the service of overseas Chinese returning to China and foreigners to come to China to employment and entrepreneurship. Promote the upgrading of the domestic consumer market, tap the potential of domestic market consumption, strengthen international economic and trade cooperation, open up the consumption capacity of the international market, and promote the balance of production and consumption.

Sixth, improve the willingness of fertility and release fertility potential. Implement positive fertility support measures, reduce the cost of fertility, raising, and education, improve the inclusive care service system, improve the level of eugenics and breeding services, and establish a cultural atmosphere and social support system for fertility and friendly. The willingness to fertility, properly improve the level of fertility, and achieve long -term balanced population.

Seventh, considering the strategy of actively responding to the aging of the population.Experience in other countries shows that the negative population growth is often accompanied by serious population aging.Compared to the decline in the number of population, many experts and scholars are more worried about the challenge of "not rich first" and "fast and fast old" to economic and social development.Therefore, it is necessary to improve the social security system of urban and rural areas, accelerate the construction of a health care service system that combines the coordination of the home community institutions and the combination of medical care and health care, improve the health level of the elderly, vigorously develop the education of the elderly, and fully explore the elderly human resourcesActive aging.(The author is the researcher and director of the Department of Population Studies)

Send 2022.8.15 Total Issue 1056 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine Title: Negative Population of China: Impact and Copper

Author: Yang Fan

Edit: Wang Xiaoxia

Operation editor: Wang Lin

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