Johnson is the European leader who supports Ukraine most, why the earliest "rushing get out of class"

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How to get out of the "dark moment" of economic stagflation in the UK

One month after Boris Johnson resigned as a conservative party leader and British Prime Minister, his successor has entered the final stage. The current Foreign Minister Elizabeth Tras and former Financial Ministers Rich Sunak have made a barrier and became two "final candidates".

According to the process of the Conservative Election Party leader, the votes printed with the names of the two candidates will be sent to all 160,000 registered party members who will be sent to the Conservative Party, and the votes will be returned on September 2 at the latest. It is expected that on September 5, the Conservative Party will announce the final victory, and this person will also become the new British Prime Minister.

On July 20, London, UK, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson left 10 Tangning Street and went to the British Parliament to participate in the weekly prime minister Q & A. Photo/Visual China

From the perspective of many British media, Johnson's resignation on July 7 was like the "sudden political earthquake" before the British parliament. What was the reason, triggered this rare conservative party forced party storms in the past century, and eventually forced Johnson, who had been popular for a while, was forced to resign in a very reluctant circumstances?

In the three years of Johnson's Prime Minister's career, the moment of the highest light of the internal affairs was the 2019 Break Record to win the general election, and the diplomacy will be the first to be launched after the upgrade of the Russian -Ukraine conflict. However, his "diplomatic achievements" in the Ukraine crisis this year still failed to defeat his ruling crisis caused by past behavior. According to the polls, the British public gives positive evaluations to the performance of the Prime Minister during the Russia and Ukraine War, but even more than two -thirds of the interviewees said that even the conservative party holders can not support such a behavior unruly behavior. The Prime Minister continues to represent the party's leading country.

The fall of the Conservative Party's "Lord of the Family"

The last straw of Johnson is a scandal of the Conservative Deputy Party whip Kiristo. This rough sexual harassment that has been exposed in succession occurs on the peacefulness of the discipline of the party members in charge of the parliamentary party, which greatly impacted the reputation of the Conservative Party, and also made the Conservative MPs in the parliament risk. The most terrible thing is that in fact, before Ping Che was promoted to the deputy party whip in February this year, these allegations had been placed in the case of Johnson. This means that Johnson also chose to promote flattening when he clarified. This time, the conservative party group and the entire Johnson cabinet broke the defense. On the evening of July 5, the Minister of Finance Sonc and the Minister of Health Javid announced their resignation and soon triggered the "jump tide" of the cabinet. Within a day, the Prime Minister's Palace received more than 50 conservative members' resignation of government positions, including six cabinet ministers.

In the question of the Prime Minister of the parliament at noon on July 6, Johnson refused to resign, and then tried to recover the crisis by reorganizing the cabinet. But in the end, at noon on July 7, Johnson, who struggled for less than 48 hours, announced that he would resign as the party leader and Prime Minister.

Since Johnson's as Prime Minister, a series of political disputes have appeared in the cabinet. Especially during the epidemic sealing and control, Johnson was held up to hold a drinking party in the palace at 10 Prime Minister's Mansion at 10 Prime Minister's Mansion of Tangning Street. The first place was the Prime Minister who received a police officer because he received a police officer.

The British people had already complained about the policy of sealing and controlling the epidemic and control of more than a year, and this time the "party door" storm completely destroyed the public's trust in the Johnson government. In the early May election and two Congress members' elections at the end of June, the Conservative Party defeated successively. At this time, Johnson was no longer the political star of the Leading Conservative Party in 2019 and successfully completed Brexit. His personal image has become the largest negative asset of the Conservative Party. Therefore, Johnson's fate is actually doomed. The scandal of Pingjian was like a fuse, which eventually detonated the bomb of the internal crisis of the Conservative Party of the Parliament.

If there is no sudden new crown epidemic, Johnson's political career can basically be said to be at the time, smooth and smooth water, and even the lucky time at many critical time. He once won the appreciation of many conservative party, including Mrs. Sachel, and finally elected as a member in 2001 and officially entered the British politics.

On July 25th, Stock, Britain, British Foreign Minister Leeds Tellas (right) and former Treasury Minister Rich Sunak participated in the Conservative leader debate. Photo/Visual China

In 2008, Johnson ushered in the first highlight of his political career and defeated Lwenston, an old Labor Mayor who was re -elected, and became the mayor of London. During the preparations and holdings of the London Olympics, Johnson obtained unprecedented exposure at the two mayor of the two sessions, and then became a star and leader in Brexit in the Brexit referendum. In the next three years when Teresa May ruling and British politics was extremely chaotic, he first forbearance, and then joined the cabinet as a foreign minister, and resigned at the most suitable moment, and finally challenged the Prime Minister's success.

Johnson's success in politics has nothing to do with his character. First of all, he is very good at grasping the changes of public opinion, and made the most suitable judgment at critical points. The first time he stood and became a leader of the people's opinion. This is undoubtedly the most powerful ability in election politics, and even his opponents inside and outside the party have to admire. Johnson is not the image of the traditional British politician elite but not grounded, humorous speaking, various language stalks and popular golden sentences, often selling strange treasures regardless of the image, which allows him to break through the circle of conservative party's traditional supporters of the circle It is also very popular among the middle and lower people in the UK. And Johnson's political wrist is also commendable. He is very good at distinguish between the enemy and me. He has a considerable connection within the party. He can unite a group of loyal supporters. At critical moments, he has no mercy to political opponents, and he is even more spicy to the rebels. In 2019, through the opportunity of the Brexit process and re -election, he conducted a deep blood exchange on the senior management of the Conservative Party. A number of heavyweights in European leaders went out and missed the conservative party for election. Therefore, for the current conservative party group of the parliament, even if Johnson resigned and left, his power is still there. At least in the next few years, he will still have a huge influence within the party.

However, the so -called Cheng also Xiao He is also Xiao He. Johnson's unrestrained and even more obedient character has made him have a group of loyal supporters, and at the same time, there are also quite a few British people who are very disgusted with him. This "durian constitution" is rare among the conservative and traditional British politicians. Especially when facing the blockade brought by the epidemic, those who are more "self -discipline" and "abide by the rules" are even more affected. They will naturally be out of anger for the Prime Minister to take the lead in indulgence and participate in the party party. In just over two years, Johnson turned into a "box office poison" from the Star of the Conservative Party.

The arrival of "Dark Moment"

Unrestrained and enthusiastic parties, and severe loss of employment issues, these can be regarded as Johnson's personal responsibility. But behind Johnson's rushing get out of class, there is another deep -seated reason that is now the British economy that is now deeply stagnant. This is not Johnson alone, or even the responsibility of the British country.

To be fair, the United Kingdom is a country that has recovered from the new crown epidemic in major economies in Europe and the United States. In 2020, the British economy shrinks more than 9 %, refreshing the historical decline record, but in the fourth quarter of 2020, the British economy has achieved a month -on -month growth. After eliminating price and exchange rate factors, last year's GDP (GDP) in the United Kingdom has basically flattened the decline brought about by the epidemic, and throw away France's fifth in the world.

However, the problems caused by the overwhelming economy appeared last year. The first is the issue of government debt. At the beginning of the epidemic, in order to prevent a large -scale unemployment tide after the city was closed, the British government took the initiative to pay 80 % of its original salary for almost all contract employees and freelancers in the country. There is no need to force the remaining 20 % salary. This extremely generous welfare policy was implemented for almost a year before being cut off.

On July 6, London, England, demonstrators demonstrated outside the parliamentary building. Figure/People's Vision

The United Kingdom and the United States are different. They cannot rely on the strong international settlement currency status that cannot be relying on the US dollar. Through rounds of quantitative easing to dilute the liabilities of the local currency, the Conservative Cabinet, which has always advertised "less borrowing debts, spend less, and small government", is in one one. After the impact of the annual epidemic, he also carried a heavy government debt burden. The money borrowed must be repaid, so the British government released the wind last year. The tax rate of the national insurance premium will increase by 1.25 % from the 2022 fiscal year. Essence

Secondly, at the beginning of the new crown epidemic, in order to resist the impact, the Bank of England reduced the benchmark interest rate to 0.1 % in one breath, which was almost zero interest rate. At the same time, the British government has also cooperated with the launch of the real estate printing duty policy. It is conceivable that such preferential interest rates and tax policies will inevitably bring overheating in the asset market. Over the past two years, the British real estate market has been "standing alone", and house prices have soared at a rate of nearly 10 % per year. However, with the acceleration of the Fed's interest rate hike in the second half of last year, the United Kingdom, like most Western central banks, also followed the fast rate hike cycle in 2022. At present, the benchmark interest rate has been adjusted to 1.75 %, and it may touch 3 % before the end of the year, which has caused the pressure on mortgages of ordinary families to increase in a short period of time. The crisis of real estate bubbles can be seen.

The Russian -Ukraine conflict, which was upgraded this spring this spring, has brought to the impact of major Western economies. It is rare since the oil crisis in the 1970s. Because the OPEC organization refused to increase its production, under the strong panic, the international market oil and gas prices have repeatedly reached record highs, superimposed with unstable global supply chains, and the overall industrial production and daily life order of Western countries have encountered unprecedented challenges. At present, the overall inflation rate in the UK has approached 10 %, the price of gasoline and diesel and food has risen by more than 20 %, and family energy expenditures have doubled.

Obviously, the fragile economy after the epidemic cannot support wages to grow at the same magnitude. For taxation, mortgage, and prices, the current economic situation is indeed the "dark moment" since the British workers' workers. All this is constantly reminding the British that the stagnation of the entire Western world in the 1970s may come again at any time, or it is inevitable that it is happening. When the crisis comes, ordinary people inevitably want to find changes. The British Conservative Government and Johnson himself unfortunately stood at this time point and became the cost of being responsible for all of this. The overall situation that is difficult to reverse

In his resignation, Johnson recalled several major things he did during his three -year prime minister. The first is to lead the Conservative Party to win the election at the end of 2019 with the biggest advantage over the past 30 years, and successfully complete the Brexit; second, he led the United Kingdom after paying a huge price. And restrictions, although he was infected during the first wave of the virus and was sent to the intensive care unit (ICU); third, he also thought that the most important and at the beginning emphasized: "Lead the West, fight against Putin, against Putin, against Putin, against Putin. Support Ukraine people to fight for freedom. "

Today, although Johnson is about to leave the Prime Minister, he is still a parliamentarian of parliament, and the party forces that support supported by him are still there, and most of these members are relatively young and have a longer -term influence in British politics. Although Johnson was forced to step down, even if many members of the cabinet resigned, just because of seeing the polls diving, the Cabinet Building would pour, and he had to choose to protect himself. This is not the same as the large -scale rebellion caused by Trysa May in 2019, which is a large -scale rebellion caused by the Brexit's fundamental route. It can be expected that at least before the re -election of the current parliament in 2024, Johnson is still an inevitable topic in the party, and his "political heritage" will also profoundly affect the ruling policy of his successor in the next two years.

The two candidates who have entered all party members of the Conservative Party, Sonak and Tras, are all highly ministers in Johnson's cabinets. They and Johnson themselves have a close relationship with the current government and Johnson themselves. Moreover, the economic dilemma currently facing Britain is a common issue facing Europe and the vast majority of Western countries. Faced with changes in the epidemic, war, anti -globalization trend, etc., with the current economic volume and influence on the international stage on the international stage, no matter who came to power, it is difficult for the government to change the overall situation with their own strength, but only the only force, but only the only force. It is a lucky to grasp the rudder of the rudder along the wind and water in the wind and waves.

(The author is a political commentator, a doctoral candidate for the Department of Sociology of Cambridge University, a member of the British Conservative Party Chinese)

Send 2022.8.15 Total Issue 1056 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine title: How do I get out of the "dark moment"?

Author: Qu Fanfu

Edit: Xu Fangqing

Operation editor: Wang Lin

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