US media: it cannot replace China

The US "National Interest" two -monthly website on August 9th article, original title: India cannot replace China as a world manufacturing power.

Since the outbreak of new coronary pneumonia, many Westerners have discussed the need to strengthen the diversification of supply chain to reduce dependence on Chinese finished products. Due to the huge and young population, low wages and relatively diversified industries, India has always been a popular candidate to replace China as a strong manufacturing country in the global supply chain.

But unfortunately, this South Asian country is unlikely to replace China in the global manufacturing supply chain. First, India's labor quality and infrastructure level lag far behind China. Many people think that the low labor cost of India is a key advantage in China. But if the benefits of these labor force are also low, what is the use of low labor costs? Today, Indians have a expected life growth of 25 years behind China, and adult literacy rates are also 30 years behind. Many Indians who grew up in slums have no government files in their lives. These factors have affected the efficiency of workers' work in the factory and their long -term development of the manufacturing industry.

Manufacturing also needs capital, especially infrastructure. In this regard, few developing countries can compete with China, and India is no exception. In addition, the division of Indian society has weakened its population. Throughout history, India is a country that is more diverse than China. It is composed of people of different classes, races, religions and languages. This multi -level diversity may have a negative impact on India's economic development.

Finally, India has a long -term tradition of market intervention and trade protectionism. In the 1980s, both China and India began economic reform. However, unlike China's reforms, India's reform is not so close to the market, and it is more affordable. At that time, the Ingla Gandhi government was losing control of power and required corporate support. These reforms are effective, but the lack of components of the pro -market hinders India's marketization process, making India's current business environment worse than China.

Internationally, India has a long -term trade protectionism tradition, which hinders its growth model of export -oriented. India was a colony and experienced the collective trauma of imperialist exploitation. This trauma led India to emphasize sovereignty and status. Economically, these tendencies have led India to attach great importance to protecting local industries. At the same time, India's protectionist tradition has led to high tariffs that have continued to this day, and India is unwilling to produce Western companies to obtain most profit -intensive products from it.

In short, India has many advantages and is supported by Western countries. But in the foreseeable future, India is unlikely to replace China's position in the global manufacturing supply chain.

(Author Xu Ruodan [Yin], translated by Chen Junan)

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