German report prediction prediction with China "decoupling": 6 times loss ...

"If Germany and other Western countries such as Western countries and China have a trade war with China, the economic losses of Germany will be 6 times the loss of Brexit." The German "World News" reported on the 9th that the German IFO Economic Research Institute, headquartered in Munich, on Monday on Monday The announcement of the announcement may be concluded after analysis.

According to the IFO Institute of Economic Research, if a trade war with China, the largest loser will be the automotive industry, and the output value of German automobile manufacturing will be reduced by 8.5%(equivalent to $ 8.306 billion). Transportation equipment manufacturers and machinery and equipment manufacturers will also be re -created, with an output value of 1.529 billion and $ 5.201 billion, respectively.

China is by far the most important trading partner in Germany, leading the Netherlands and the United States. In 2021, Germany imported goods worth 142.3 billion euros from China and exported products worth 103.7 billion euros.

According to the report, it is estimated that if both parties take higher import tariffs and other trade barriers, it will reduce Germany's GDP (GDP) by 0.81%. And this is only the lower limit of the expected loss. If German companies will fully move their production chain back to Germany, German GDP will fall by nearly 10%. One of the report authors, Vlach believes: "Deading globalization will not only increase the unemployment rate, decreases the economic growth rate, but also will eventually damage the political stability of this country. Enterprises should not leave important trading partners without necessary. "

The report also simulates five possible scenarios such as the EU and China in terms of trade. The report believes that the EU and the United States reaching a trade agreement can buffer the negative impact of "decoupling" with China on Germany and the United States, but cannot completely offset losses. Kuoting, an investment strategyist at the American Investment Corporation Columbia Stepper, warned that the "decourse" would cause the entire world to fall into a deep recession.

In the context of the continued tension of relations in the United States and China, and the United States has continuously encouraged the "decoupling" of allies and China, the above report has aroused widespread attention from German media. A German TV reported that the "high cost of economic war with China" reported that the trade war with China will have a huge impact on Germany. "Mirror" Weekly says that "decoupled" with the Chinese economy means that Germany will suffer major losses. On the one hand, the sales market will collapse, on the other hand, the German industry's primary products and raw materials will become more expensive.

The German "Business Daily" reported last month that although German politicians and research institutions had various concerns, almost no German companies were willing to miss China's development opportunities.

Global Times Zhaodong

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