The US Senate passed the inflation reduction bill, and did the Biden's anti -inflation plan work?

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter Li Yinong Shanghai reported on August 7, local time, and the US Parliament Senate voted to pass the "Inflation Act". At this point, the long -term stagnant economic agenda has finally made initial progress; and the Democratic Party lasted for several months of differences in this bill. From the current results, it seemed to have reached consensus temporarily.

It is reported that the total amount of a package of this package of the "2022 Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" reached 740 billion U.S. dollars. It aims to reduce a series of measures such as reducing prescription drug costs, tax reforms, and climate change to reduce The government deficit and the inflation that the people are facing the people.

In the current economic situation in the United States, can inflation and reduction bills really reduce inflation? What is the actual economic significance? What possible impacts will it bring?

Ma Wei, an assistant researcher at the American Institute of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that this bill can be said to a large extent as "unrealistic", but under the current high inflation conditions, the use Names, it is easier to get passed in Congress, and it is easier to get the support of the public. As for its economic significance, it is more likely to be a long -term impact, and in the short term, the direct impact on the US economy has limited effects.

Wu Qisheng, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Issues of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, also told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that the real purpose of the bill is not to reduce inflation, but the Democratic Party to accelerate a series of social and environmental expenditure plans to ensure the winning elections and consolidate Basic disk voters' support; in the short term, given that the scale of the bill is relatively limited, the time span is relatively long, and nearly half of the expenditure is used to reduce government deficits, and its political significance is greater than economic significance.

Short -term inflation effect limited

Specifically, this 755 -page bill covers a series of measures in many aspects such as energy climate, healthcare, and taxation reform in terms of content. It introduces 15%of US companies with a revenue of US $ 1 billion and above. The minimum tax rate and other methods are raised to raise funds to reduce the federal fiscal deficit of about 300 billion US dollars in the next 10 years; it will use $ 370 billion to cope with energy and climate change; Essence

Democrats emphasized that these measures will solve the main economic problems of voters, especially to play a certain containment role in inflation. Chuck Schume, a major party leader of the United States Senate, and Democratic Senator, calls this bill "one of the most important legislations passed in the past ten years"; Shu Mo said that although the bill finally experienced A series of amendments and reduced the original expenditure, but in general, it is still "the Democratic Party's victory in legislation."

Can this bill packaged into inflation to solve the "good recipe" bill really can really challenge the economic challenge "medicine to disease" by the United States?

Wu Qisheng told reporters that the bill was actually a climate change proposed by the Democratic Party in 2021 and a narrow version of the social expenditure bill. Previously, due to the objections of gentleness of the Democratic Party, the total expenditure was repeatedly narrowed, but it was still suffering from the support of the key members of the Democratic Party.

Wu Qisheng pointed out that the progress of this bill was mainly because in the context of the mid -term elections, the Democratic Party reached a compromise on the bill in the Democratic Party, and the amount of expenditure was greatly reduced from the initial set of US $ 3.5 trillion to more than 700 billion US dollars. It is equivalent to 1/5 of the previous expenditure quota. It can be seen that the real purpose of the Democratic Party's promotion of the bill is not as claimed to reduce inflation pressure in the United States as claimed by the name of the bill.

Ma Wei also pointed out that the bill is essentially one of the main economic agenda since Biden took office. The "rebuilding a better future bill" is a reduction or a compromise. The problem is designed.

It is worth noting that the US Congress Budget Office also bluntly stated that the bill may play a "insignificant" problem in 2022 and 2023.

In Wu Qisheng's view, some clauses in the bill can indeed relieve inflation pressure to a certain extent; but in general, most of the clauses of the bill have been executed for a long time, and in the short term, the United States reduces inflation pressure to reduce inflation pressure in the short term. Has little effect. "In the United States, it is mainly the Federal Reserve's work, and it is difficult for the US Congress to deal with inflation in the short term through legislation." Wu Qisheng added.

Tax reform impact on the US economy geometry?

In addition to the actual impact of inflation, it may be largely "unrealistic", and the tax reform in the bill has also triggered more discussions.

Affected by the bill of taxation measures in the bill, large companies with an annual income of more than $ 1 billion will face a minimum corporate income tax rate of 15%.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that the bill not only does not reduce the inflation of the United States, but also further leads to the decline in the US economy because "the bill adds heavy taxes to the company will crack down on the enthusiasm of the company's enthusiasm , Increasing the cost of the company and making American consumers finally pay for it. "

Overall, people who opposed this bill believe that the bill may be counterproductive, not only to further exacerbate inflation, but its tax clauses may endanger employment and exacerbate the risk of US economic recession. In this regard, Wu Qisheng said that the most affected by tax increase measures in the bill is mainly large companies with annual income of more than $ 1 billion, and the number of companies involved is about 150, not too much. However, given the low federal tax paid by many large US companies, the new bills will significantly increase the tax burden of these companies. In addition, the bill levied 1%of the company's stock repurchase of 1%, which will also force companies including Apple, Morgan Stanley, and Nike to abandon the stock repurchase plan in the short term, and then put a certain pressure on the stock price of these large companies Essence

Ma Wei said that the future direction of the US economy may depend on the Fed's interest rate hike choice. The changes in tax policies bring a long -term impact, which may not exacerbate economic decline in the short term.

Ma Wei explained that the tax system covered by the bill mainly depends on two aspects. One is that due to the increase in taxation, the willingness to invest in corporate investment; Promote. To a certain extent, it depends on the balance between these two relative force.

Ma Wei believes that the newly added tax policy in the short term may play a role in suppressing investment, but the impact on the US economy in the long run should not be great; Federal fiscal revenue consideration.

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