Many of your views on the world are nonsense

If you don't understand how high the frequency of large -scale illusion in daily experience is, then many views of your views on the world may be nonsense. Because large -scale illusion is the normal state of human beings, not exceptions.

If we don't believe it, we can do an experiment, it is easy to try the authenticity:

Ask what kind of religious beliefs or political views your neighbors hold. You will find that your worldview is obviously inconsistent. You will definitely not say that your neighbors and all those who agree with them live in some kind of hallucinations. For example, you may think that death means that people will go to heaven or hell, but your neighbor believes that people will reincarnate after death -how can this do? You and neighbors cannot be right at the same time, at least one of you must be in a large -scale illusion.

Moreover, this is not limited to your neighbors. In your opinion, millions of people have the same large -scale illusion.

Another example is the large -scale illusion of the value cognition of start -ups that are still losing money. And all other financial bubbles are also a large -scale illusion.

Next, I will specifically introduce several famous and more appalling large -scale illusion events. There are also many examples of large -scale illusions on the Internet. Large -scale illusion is affecting each of us. Unless we really break the spell, we cannot judge whether we are in it.

Through the following example, you will easily see the model. As long as you realize how easy the dislocation of large -scale illustrations and how to add vinegar to confirming errors, you may gradually realize how common it is in daily life.

Casem Witch Trial Case

From 1692-1693, the US authorities executed 20 witch at Selham in Massachusetts. This is the most infamous large -scale illusion in American history. And all of this began in the four girls, at the time they started spasm without warning. Under such circumstances, as long as there is an idiot that this is a witchcraft monster, then from this moment, confirm that the error will control everything. Once the brain filter uses the setting of "looking for witch", all the evidence will be consistent with the "Witch" framework.

"World War" of Orson Wels

In 1938, writer Orson Wels broadcast on the radio and adapted from the writer H. G. Broadcasting drama of Wales's novel "World War". When cutting into the channel, the audience who missed the program profile mistakenly believed that they were listening to news reports that aliens invaded the earth.

This is a rare illustration of two major large -scale illusions. The first significant illusion is that the audience mistakenly believes that radio dramas are news reports, and I believe that aliens are attacking the earth. But this "large -scale illusion" did not affect too many people, because there were very few audiences at the time. The second significant illusion is that this incident is slowly spreading more and more exaggerated, which eventually leads the public that it is an alien invasion in the United States.

I can confirm this. When I was still young, my parents told me that this radio drama also fooled people in most parts of the United States. However, this is not the case. The audience of the show is very small, and those who have listened to the story of the plot know that it is adapted from a novel and is a fictional work.

McMADD trial case

In the 1980s, the operator of a preschool children's school on the beach in Manhattan, California, was charged with 360 children and was arrested. After trial, all the charges of the operator were not established. Later, we learned that when asking the children, the investigators used a very hinted questioning form, which made these children compile various stories. However, no story is true.

I learned in hypnosis class that children are more vulnerable to impact than adults. Those who have received such training can see what is going on. After reading the book "Winning with the Great", you can also do it.

Tulip fragrance

In 1637, the Dutch was fascinated by the new tulip, which raised the price of the tulips used to grow to about 10 times the annual income of a skilled worker. Everyone knows that this plant is not practical. But as long as people believe that if another fool buys a tulips from the upper family at a higher price, the price of tulip will continue to rise. But like all financial bubbles, it eventually shattered.

In addition to the large -scale illusion, we often come into contact with some false sciences with false chaos. To a certain extent, it is difficult for us to distinguish between the difference, and this is one of the roots that cause large -scale illusion.

From the perspective of the second dimension, large -scale illusion is rare, and it is not worth mentioning at all. But for professional persuasion for the third dimension, large -scale illusion is very common, and they are everywhere, affecting everyone. This difference in training and experience can explain why people are difficult to reach an agreement on some major issues today.

Take global warming as an example. People from the second dimension believe that large -scale illusion is rare, so they apply such assumptions to each theme. Therefore, if they notice most scientists standing in the same camp, this observation is very convincing to them. After all, a rational person will inevitably want to stand in the same camp with smart people who understand related topics. This sounds very reasonable.

However, people who live in the third dimension who are persuasive to play a role often have different views on climate change, because these people regard large -scale illusions as normal and conventional. For the topic of global warming, I thought from the beginning (my "initial prejudice"), even after repeated experiments, even if there is a peer review, scientists' views on climate change will inevitably make mistakes in what kind of serious consequences will cause mistakes. Essence Each situation of a complex prediction model has a broad space to accommodate the disguised errors in rational. Just adjust the assumption to get any results we want. There is another point: scientists who oppose the consensus of climate change will face huge risks in occupation and prestige. This is the perfect setting of large -scale illusion. Therefore, it only requires the following two conditions to produce a large -scale illusion:

① There is a complex prediction model, which contains a lot of assumptions;

② There are great financial and psychological pressures to drive people to recognize consensus.

In the second dimension, over time, scientific methods and peer review and review will eliminate errors. However, in the third dimension, if almost everyone, including the peer reviewer, has the same large -scale illusion, then the scientific method cannot detect errors.

I am not a scientist, nor can I verify the accuracy of the prediction of the climate model, but if the facts have proved that most of the experts related to this theme have a large -scale illusion, it is not impossible, and even it seems unusual. In the reality I have experienced, whenever a complicated prediction model is involved, there will be a large -scale illusion in a routine; or in other words, I can always predict that there is a large -scale illusion. Because in my opinion, the world itself is full of the illusion of large -scale, it is not uncommon.

Whenever ordinary people and climate scientists stand in the same camp, the former often thinks that they support science. In fact, ordinary people have not participated in science and did not participate in other similar things. They just accepted the opinions of scientists. In the second dimension, this is very reasonable, because thousands of scientists can't make mistakes. But in the third dimension, we can accept the possibility of "scientists are right", maybe they are indeed right; but from my experience, if most climate scientists are experiencing common ones common ones, The illusion is also normal and natural.

To put it clear, I don't say that most scientists have made mistakes in climatic science. I just put forward some views, that is, this group of people, if they are experiencing a big big financial and psychological motivation, The illusion of scale is also normal and natural. In fact, scientific methods and peer review processes may not be able to capture large -scale illusions in certain time. In terms of science, we never know that for the pursuit of the truth, is we walking in the journey or finding it. Sometimes these two situations look exactly the same.

Climate science is a theme that is prone to polarization. Compared with ordinary people, professional persuasives are not easy to move by experts.

In other words, if a foreign man suspects the scientific truth, the biggest possibility is that this person is wrong. And if a professional persuasion is full of suspicion or objection to a certain "scientific truth", then leave more snacks.

Recommended reading

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In this book, Scott Adams, the author of the well -known series of companies managing the comic "Better", introduced his persuasion theory, that is, how to use "weapon -level" persuasiveness, the leading competitors affect the audience, and win in the competition. The "weapon level" persuasion that transcends logic in all aspects allows you to easily convince 80%of people in the world.

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