Overseas network depth: radical interest rate hikes, the United States dragged the world

Data Map: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerom Powell (Figure Source/Associated Press)

On June 15, local time, the Federal Reserve announced 75 basis points to raise interest rate hikes to the US Federal Fund interest rate target range to 1.5%to 1.75%. This is the Federal Reserve's maximum rate hike since 1994. In order to curb high inflation, the Federal Reserve will not only push up the risk of "hard landing" of the US economy, but also its negative spillover effect will also allow the global financial market to undergo pressure.

The interest rate hike is "extraordinary"

According to the British "Guardian" report, the Fed Chairman Powell said at a press conference held at a press conference held after the Federal Reserve Federal Public Marketing Committee on the day that the Fed was decided by the recent series of bad economic news after a series of bad economic news. Essence He further stated that if the inflation situation has not improved, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates again in July.

Powell admits that the rate hike at 75 basis points is "extraordinary". Behind the interest rate hike of "unusual" is the inflation of "high fever". According to data released by the US Department of Labor on June 10, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 8.6%year -on -year, which not only set the highest record since December 1981, but also broke the market that the market had previously seen the US inflation that had been seen before the United States. expected. The United States National Public Broadcasting Station (NPR) published on June 15th that this data not only reflects the rise in gasoline and grocery costs, but also reflects the rise in rents and air tickets and various service costs. · Breson said, "Inflation seems to be deep -rooted, for many people, this has changed the rules of the game."

The reality of the CPI growth rate of more than 7%for six consecutive months has caused the "temporary" Federal Reserve to be embarrassed. The US government and the Federal Reserve have been increasingly criticized for their slow action on response to inflation. On May 31, the former Federal Reserve Chairman and the current US Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged in an interview with the United States Cable Television News (CNN) that he "misjudged the threat caused by inflation." Stephen Ratner, a consultant of the Obama administration, wrote in the New York Times, saying, "the Fed needs to make up for his mistakes."

Economic recession risk risk

Although the Fed's interest rate hike conforms to market expectations, it still triggers concerns about the risk of recession in the US economy.

The Associated Press quoted Powell on June 15 that the measures adopted in order to alleviate inflation "may cause economic slowdown and further increase the unemployment rate." In addition to the announcement of interest rate hikes, the Fed also greatly reduced its expectations of US economic growth in 2022 from 2.8%in March to 1.7%. The prediction of the unemployment rate in 2023 was raised from 3.5%to 3.9%, and in 2024 it will reach 4.1%.

This exacerbates the concerns of American people and economists in economic recession. James McCan, a senior global economist of Anben Standard Investment Corporation, told "American News and World Report", "Under the condition of soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve is anxious to catch up, alleviating the adjustment of inflation will lead to a decline in the United States later next year. . "According to a survey conducted by the British" Financial Times "on June 13 with the University of Chicago Business School, as the United States is facing the worst inflation in 40 years, the world's largest economy is facing In the increasingly resistant resistance, nearly 70%of senior economists believe that the US economy will fall into a decline in 2023.

Although the Fed has repeatedly claimed that it will suppress inflation through "soft landing", the United States has a doubt about this view. US Consumer News and Commercial Channel (CNBC) reported that a forecast model recently announced by Atlanta Federal Reserve shows that the US economy may have negative growth for the second quarter this year, and negative growth for two consecutive quarters is generally considered a manifestation of economic recession. "Overlapping inflation and rising unemployment rates have risen. This series of factors make 'soft landing' complicated."

Even the American people are not optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States. According to data released by Gallop on May 31, the US economic confidence index was -45 in May, which is the lowest point since 2009. The public opinion survey released by CNN in May shows that only 23%of Americans believe that the economic situation is good. The current American view of the economy is the worst in 10 years.

Negative effects are afraid of overflowing

The negative spillover effect of the Federal Reserve on the "lower medicine" on interest rate hikes is also worrying.

From a historical point of view, the United States has repeatedly passed its economy to the development economy. According to VOA, the sharp rise in interest rates in the United States has a strong historical correlation with the consequences of economic disaster in developing countries. After the First World War, the Fed and the Bank of England avoided the decline of major industrial countries by raising interest rates, which led to a slow growth of non -industrial countries for several years. Similarly, the Federal Reserve's radical interest rate hike in the early 1980s successfully curbed the United States' inflation, but it led to debt defaults in many developing countries, especially Latin American countries. Jamie Martin, assistant professor of Georgetown University in the United States, said that history should remind people to be careful that in a century, when the Fed and other global central banks adopt a positive tightening monetary policy, almost every time they have occurred Great global influence, especially for developing economies. According to the BBC (BBC) report, in the 1994 Fed's interest rate hike cycle, the currency of the international market of emerging countries has depreciated rapidly. Among them, Mexico is especially, the currency depreciates sharply, and the market panic spreads. The deterioration of the situation directly led to a large -scale currency crisis in Mexico.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike once again caused concerns about developing economies. According to the Wall Street Journal, for developing countries, the Federal Reserve has contributed to people's anxiety through a series of interest rate hikes. The rise in US interest rates may push up the debt costs of developing countries, thereby destroying the economy Stability. The CNBC journal states that the more radical Fed may have a chain reaction to the global economy and further lead to a global economic recession. (Text/Lao Du)

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