Japan has reached the edge of the "lack of gas", and the United States and Australia cannot reliable

With the continuous fermentation of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the risk of natural gas supply is spreading from Europe to Japan.

Since Russia announced the establishment of a new company to take over the operation of "Sahalin 2" at the end of June, Japan's concerns about "lack of gas" have increased day by day. In desperation, the Japanese government has recently issued a help signal to the United States and Australia, hoping to obtain energy supply of the two countries to make up for the potential energy gap in Japan. However, far water cannot be resolved, not to mention that at present, the United States and Australia are not willing to help Japan to relieve the dilemma at the moment.

The risk of "lack of gas" intensifies

Japan ’s Kyodo News reported on July 25 that Japan’ s Economic and Industry stated that although Japan has not immediately occurred in Japan ’s tight supply and demand, in the context of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, whether Japan can maintain the“ “Russian Far East Petroleum and Natural Gas Development Project“ ” The rights and interests of Sahalin 2 are facing uncertainty, so the Japanese government will step up response measures to suppress gas demand.

Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Japan has followed the footsteps of the United States and Europe to impose multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia. Not only that, Japan also actively cooperates with the United States, intending to suppress the price of Russian oil in the international market. As an counter -fix, Russia included Japan in the "unfriendly country and regional list", and used back to Japan in the energy field, intending to cut off the natural gas in Japan.

On June 30, Russian President Putin signed a decree to set up a new company to take over the operation of "Sahalin 2". Essence Japan Mitsui Products Company and Mitsubishi Commercial Company previously held 12.5%and 10%in this project. The remaining foreign shareholder Shell Company has announced that it will withdraw.

As soon as the news came out, Japan was worried. The "Japan Gas Association" composed of a number of Japanese gas companies "Japan Gas Association" said that considering that the uncertainty faced by the "Sahalin 2" project may affect the import of natural gas in Japan, the association suggested that the Japanese government considers the response as soon as possible as soon as possible The strategy, including the sources of alternatives of natural gas imports, the lack of coordination between gas companies, and even restricting gas demand when supplying tight supply.

It is reported that the "Sahalin 2" project is located on the continental rack of the Sahalin Island of Russia. The oil reserves involved are about 100 million tons and the natural gas reserves are more than 400 billion cubic meters. About 9%of Japan's liquefied natural gas imported from Russia, almost all from the "Sahalin 2" project. The analysis believes that Russia's countermeasures on the "Sahalin 2" project not only means that Japanese companies participating in the project are facing the risk of output, but also likely to lead to crisis in the domestic natural gas supply in Japan. Essence

Far water is difficult to solve thirst

"After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, Japan and the United States were highly pace and acted as the prestigious stroke, which was at the forefront of pressure on Russia, which led to a sharp deterioration of Japan and Russia. In this context, Russia borrowed the 'Sahalin 2' project to return to the background. Color will have a serious impact on Japanese energy supply. "Sun Cheng, a professor at the School of Political and Public Management of the University of Political Science and Law and the director of the East Asia International Issues Research Center, analyzed in an interview with the People's Daily reporter that although the data is perspective, Russia, Russia, The amount of natural gas supplied to the total amount of natural gas imports in Japan is not high, but the "Sahalin No. 2" project has the advantages of close distance, low transportation cost, and stable supply.

Japan ’s NHK website also pointed out that compared with other regions, Japan’ s imported natural gas from “Sahalin 2” is more convenient. Usually it can be transported in about 3 days, and the transportation route is safer. Therefore, "Sahalin No. 2" is an energy base with low prices and long -term stable supply.

As the risk of "lack of gas" in Japan has continued to increase, Japanese media reports that the Japanese government is currently decided to prepare for two -handed preparation: on the one hand, strive to safeguard the relevant rights and interests of the company's participation in the "Sahalin 2" project, and on the other hand, seeking " "Friendly Country" purchasing liquefied natural gas alternatives to get rid of dependence against Russia.

In early July, the Minister of Economic and Industry of Japan went to Sydney, Australia to attend the Conference on Energy Minister of Energy of the United States, Australia, Japan, and India. Before leaving, he stated that he would "resolutely require major liquefied natural gas to produce the country in the United States and Japan's largest liquefied natural gas supply to increase production in Australia to ensure stable supply to Japan." Prior to this, Sumita Tian Guangyi had made similar requirements to the US and Australian government, hoping to obtain energy supply of the two countries to make up for the potential energy gap in Japan.

Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Japanese Institute of Japanese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the help of the United States and Australia may alleviate Japan's "lack of gas" in the short term. However, in the long run, natural gas transportation requires high costs. The Sahalin No. 2 "project is not a good choice.

Japan's current Affairs News Agency believes that although the Japanese government makes a request for increasing production to the United States and Australia, the actual increasing production of the country of output often takes several years. At the same time, European countries such as Germany have also increasingly noticed the importance of liquefaction natural gas, so it is difficult to determine whether Japan can make it as expected.

Push domestic inflation

Japan's natural gas relies on imports almost all of them. Facing the risk of partial interruption of the long -term contract of "Sahalin 2" in the future, the Japanese government has to "open source" and start considering how to "throw".

Benzhuang Wuhong, president of the Japan Gas Association, recently said that once the natural gas supply is tight, it will consider saving gas according to the situation. The Ministry of Economic and Industry of Japan began to study a new system for family and enterprises to save families and enterprises when supply and demand. The Japanese government will also further discuss the necessity of setting natural gas to save digital targets or forced use for large enterprises. "The current government of Japan is guided by 'value diplomacy', with a view to enhance Japan's international influence. In this context, the Japanese government has further strengthened cooperation with the United States and Europe to implement measures such as embargo, blockade, and sanctions with the United States and Europe. It seems that if the United States and Europe do not relieve sanctions against Russia, Japan may not unilaterally change the policy to Russia. "Sun Cheng recognized that if the Russian -Ukraine conflict continues to ferment and Japan continues to follow the United States and adopt a tough policy against Russia, then Japan is great It is possible to face a severe energy crisis.

Lu Yaodong believes that the influence of deterioration of Japan -Russia relations is long -term and comprehensive. If the "lack of qi" in Japan cannot be alleviated, it will not only cause dissatisfaction among domestic domestic interest groups, but also bring a series of economic and people's livelihood issues, such as Energy shortage will trigger rising energy prices and increase the burden of people's lives. These are issues that the Japanese government cannot ignore.

Data show that as of June this year, the Japanese core inflation index has risen year -on -year for 10 consecutive months. According to the analysis, although the Japanese government has repeatedly raised the price subsidy standard for fuel wholesalers, the sharp rise in energy prices is still the main reason for pushing inflation. In June, the increase in natural gas, pipelines, and gasoline prices in Japan reached 18%, 21.9%, and 12.2%, respectively. It is also analyzed that 60 % of the natural gas used in Japan is used for firepower. Once the natural gas is insufficient, it will impact the power supply in Japan.

Recently, Japan has begun to accelerate the restarting operations of nuclear power plants. Sun Cheng recognized that next, Japan's steps in the development of wind power and nuclear power will be faster. In addition, earlier this year, the world's first liquefied hydrogen ship successfully arrived in Japan. "Japan will take more measures to try to get rid of the energy dependence on Russia, but this is difficult to achieve in the short term. For the long -term plan, at the same time considering the domestic call, the Japanese government will still find ways to stay in 'Sahalin 2' '' The project, even to make a certain concession to Russia for this. "Sun Cheng said. (Reporter Yan Yu)

Original title: Japan has gone to the edge of "lack of gas" (global hotspot)

"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (06th edition of July 28, 2022)

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