German agencies: The German business prosperity index fell to the lowest two years, "on the verge of economic recession"

According to Reuters reports on July 25, the German business prosperity survey report released by the Institute of Economics (IFO) on Monday shows that the decline in German corporate confidence in July exceeded expectations. The German agency said that high energy prices and imminent natural gas shortages have caused the largest European economy to "On the Cusp of A Recession."

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The survey report shows that the German business prosperity index fell from 92.2 points in June (seasonal adjustment) to 88.6 points in July, the lowest value since June 2020, and 90.2 lower than the analysts predicted by the analysts of Reuters surveys. point. The index mainly includes 4 indicators: manufacturing, service industry, trade and construction, the average decrease of significantly declined.

"Economic recession is knocking on the door. This possibility can no longer be ruled out," said Klaus Wohlrabe, the person in charge of the IFO investigation project.

It is reported that due to the significant decrease in Russia's natural gas supply, Germany may face the unprecedented natural gas to the system this winter. This month, the Russian side temporarily stopped the operation of the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline for 10 days to regularly maintain it. Last Thursday, the pipeline resumed operation, but the natural gas conveying volume returned to 40%of the pipeline transportation capacity.

Wallay told Reuters that if the supply of natural gas in Germany continues to be at this level, "there will be no economic recession." However, the German Energy Regulatory Federal Network Bureau said on Friday that if the natural gas supply through the pipeline continues to remain at 40%, Germany will need to take "additional measures" to achieve it to avoid being forced to implement the distribution system in winter. The annual gas storage target, that is, allows natural gas reserves to reach 90%.

According to Reuters, the German government has stated that if natural gas is provided to the system, it will give priority to residents rather than enterprises. After investigating about 9,000 companies, the German business prosperity index announced by the Institute of Economics on Monday showed that the company's expected operations were expected to operate in the next few months. Clemens Fuest, director of the institute, said that the company interviewed companies' satisfaction with the current status quo has declined and is increasingly worried about the next few months.

It is reported that Jorge Kraemer, an economic analyst at the German commercial bank, said: "The IFO business prosperity index, just like the purchasing manager index, clearly states that the German economy is declining. How bad it will eventually depend on Putin. "

Reuters mentioned that the data released by S & P Global on Friday shows that the German service industry purchasing manager index and manufacturing procurement manager index fell to 49.2 points in July, lower than the analysts estimated at 50 Point -50 is the glory line that distinguish between economic expansion and contraction.

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