Will there be the next after Sri Lanka's "Blasting Thunder"?

△ On July 21, in Coronapo, Capital, the capital of Sri Lanka, people were queuing up. Picture/Xinhuanet

Sri Lanka, which has been declared "bankrupt" and the President of the Prime Minister, has ushered in a new government. On July 20, local time, the Sri Lanka Parliament held a voting election new president, and the temporary President Renier Vikra Masinger was elected as the new President of Sri Lanka.

In the past six months, this island country, which has been among the high -income countries in South Asia, has fallen into a dilemma of high debt and difficulty in living, the political turmoil, and the national operating mechanism collapsed.

Right now, even if Sri Lanka has formed a new government, some research experts are still worried about the future situation of South Asian countries represented by it. "Sri Lanka is the first country in South Asia. "".

Crisis explosion

Sri Lanka's situation is not a change. In late May of this year, after Sri Lanka's sovereign debt defaults, its political and economic situation has also been turbulent.

On July 5th, the then Prime Minister of Sri Lanka (now the new President of Sri Lanka) Vikramazinha, which announced that the country's bankruptcy said that the unprecedented economic crisis will last at least until the end of 2023.

After that, thousands of protesters located in Coronapo, Capital, Sri Lanka, rushed into the residence of the presidential official residence and burned Prime Minister's house. The Presidential Prime Minister also announced his resignation due to the turmoil of the situation, and the country once entered an emergency.

Media reports stated that Sri Lanka appeared for the first time since 1948 for its failure to pay due debts and interest on May 19. The news pointed out that Sri Lanka's total foreign debt was US $ 51 billion, but the available foreign exchange reserves were less than 50 million US dollars as of May, that is, the scale of foreign debt was high, and foreign exchange reserves were at a low level. Costs, the problem of non -debt is severe.

Vikra Marinha had previously said that Sri Lanka currently has enough 5 months of rice inventory and 3 months of imports. If there is no solution for the next four months, Sri Lanka will have to rely on other alternatives. At the same time, Sri Lanka is also facing the issue of fertilizer imports. Imported fertilizer requires $ 600 million, but the government currently has only $ 300 million.

A more popular understanding of the country's bankruptcy is that the country is in the situation of non -debt. According to Wang Se, a assistant researcher at the South Asian Institute of China Modern International Relations, similar to the bankruptcy of individuals or enterprises, the country's bankruptcy also means that its credit weakens. When applying for assistance from international organizations, the conditions will become more harsh. Essence But the difference is that sovereign countries will not "close" and debt clearly with their economic bankruptcy.

"Under the pain of high grain prices and shortage of supply, the people may become a gunpowder barrel with political instability." Bloomberg reported this.

In an interview with the "China Report" reporter, Wang Se also said that with Sri Lanka, who took office in the new president, his next political trend still needs to be observed, but it is certain that the turbulent situation in the Sri Lanka country will still exist for a period of time.

Wang Se believes that the Sri Lanka crisis is caused by the overlapping of internal and external factors, which has spread from the economic crisis to the political field, which has triggered a national crisis. "It has been sick for a long time." He admitted to reporters that under the changes in the external environment such as the new crown pneumonia and the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the economic structure of Sri Lanka was single and long -term debt -raising development model was violently impacted. The terrorist attack that took place in Coronapu, the capital of Sri Lanka in 2019 was a heavy frustration for this South Asian island country that depends on the tourism industry.

On the other hand, within Sri Lanka, the government's approach to crisis is also accused. Former President Rajapaksa has promoted fiscal deficit and tax cuts since 2019, leading to a reduction in government income. At the same time, in order to achieve the green transformation of agricultural, Sri Lanka has banned pesticides and herbicides since April last year, which directly led to the sharp decline in its agricultural output and had to buy imported food at a high price.

In addition, Sri Lanka's welfare system is also considered one of the "straw" that crushes the economy of the entire country. During the interview, Hu Shisheng, director of the South Asia Institute of China Modern International Relations, introduced that in Sri Lanka, the social welfare that political parties promised to the public for the election have kept finances. Used for people consumption. Hu Shisheng mentioned that at this stage, the high welfare system has become a long -term pressure on many South Asian countries including Sri Lanka. If the issue of the welfare system is difficult to deal with it properly, economic risks may still occur in the future.

During the interview, Wang Si mentioned to reporters that Sri Lanka's economic and political crisis should be a warning for national society, especially South Asian countries. He said that the domestic turmoil in Sri Lanka is a test of cooperation in the entire South Asian region. If it is not handled well, the turmoil in Sri Lanka may have a spillover effect, resulting in crisis in politics and economy in the entire region.

trigger the alarm

A situation that is not still optimistic is that due to the continuity of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic and international geopolitical conflict, many countries have fallen into the dilemma of debt defaults and foreign exchange shortages.

In Turkey, its inflation rate (hereinafter referred to as the "inflation rate") reached a 24 -year high history, which once soared to 78.62%; in the Maldives, the level of public debt has exceeded the total GDP of one year; with a population of 220 million people, which has a population of 220 million people, Pakistan has also appeared in the highest inflation rate since 13 years, 21.3%. In addition, Laos, Myanmar and other countries are also deadlocked. According to the United Nations data, grain, fuel and financial crisis caused by Russia and Ukraine's conflict may cause turbulence in the poorer countries, leading to the post -dust of the Sri Lanka in more than 70 countries, and debt defaults.

Hu Shisheng told the reporter of the China News that when facing the turbulent international situation, some small economies were easily exposed to the vulnerability of its political and economic. "The situation faced by developing countries is very severe." Hu Shisheng said that it is easy to form a window -breaking effect among countries at present, and the Domino card effect caused by the Sri Lanka crisis is also very likely to happen.

Golkayova, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued early warnings, and Sri Lanka's bankruptcy may not be a case. At the Tenth Group (G20) Group Treasurer and Central Bank President Meeting on July 16, Georki said that the situation of Sri Lanka was a warning that countries with high debt levels and limited policy space will face more pressure.

She also mentioned that due to the challenges of the global economy, nearly one -third of emerging market economies face debt dilemma.

"To some extent, Sri Lanka is a microcosm of developing countries." Wang Si admitted to reporters that for most countries, energy and food imports are just needed, and the global supply chain reorganization caused by the conflict of Russia and Ukraine is overlapping new crown pneumonia The impact of the epidemic has led to the situation of double deficit in these countries, and then a serious fiscal crisis appeared.

The more typical is that under financial pressure, Pakistan applied to the International Monetary Fund to apply for rescue plan, and since last month, it has called on the public to drink less tea to reduce the import of tea. With the decline in foreign exchange reserves, the Bangladesh government has also announced the reduction of non -essential imports and attracting the inflow of remittances of overseas Chinese.

Compared with other South Asian countries, Hu Shisheng believes that Sri Lanka has a certain economic foundation and superior geographical location. It is at an important strategic location of "Oriental Maritime Cross Road". High, if you can seek effective help, restore the usual economic form "considerable prospects".

In Wangse's observation, similar to Sri Lanka's situation, the economic situation of the Maldives is also "very dangerous." Public information shows that tourism revenue contributes to the Maldives GDP for many years to remain at 25%-30%, which is its main source of foreign exchange income. But since the new crown epidemic, the fragile economic structure of the Maldives has shown its disadvantages.

chain reaction

In the latest issue of "Global Economic Outlook", the World Bank will reduce the economic growth of the developing economy this year from 4.6%to 3.4%.

The World Bank warns that the popularity of coronary virus has also exacerbated the risks brought by the rising debt burden of developing countries, and requires global efforts to avoid new crises in these economies.

Hu Shisheng infer that even Sri Lanka, who is "good", needs to face a realistic problem: the people in Sri Lanka should have a clearer understanding of the country's situation, otherwise the country will become more turbulent, and the suspicion of providing international assistance forces will intensify it will intensify it. The probability of the industrial chain will be transferred and replaced by the following. "Sri Lanka takes at least one year to slow down," he said.

"The situation of more countries on the verge of bankruptcy is not inevitable." Wang Se pointed out to the reporter of "China Report" that the first step of consensus is that both the government and the people should understand the severe economic situation facing the country. Applying for international assistance as soon as possible can also help. At the government level, measures such as tightening public expenses, interest rate hikes inhibit inflation, and reduced welfare expenditures can be appropriately adopted.

At the same time, internationally, international organizations such as G20, AIIB, and IMF should also have a consensus to deal with challenges and provide assistance to these countries facing crisis. Ayhan Kose, deputy governor of the World Bank responsible for fair growth and financial institution affairs, also called on this consensus: "The international community needs to take a rapid and strong action to ensure that recent debt accumulation will not lead to a series of debt crisis."

Wang Se said that due to the continued brought by the Russian conflict, the global international grain and oil supply chain unstable spilling effect is still affecting many countries around the world. In his opinion, what the current country needs to work together to resist risks. "This is an important inspiration brought to us in the Sri Lanka situation." Wang Sa said.

Written: "China News" reporter Qiu Hui

Responsible: Xu Hao

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