Will the Indian population surpass China for the first time in 2023?Indians talk about "population" and have a complicated mentality

[Global Times special reporter Xu Fu Global Times special reporter Wang Haiying] On July 11th, the World Population Day, the United Nations released the "World Population Outlook 2022" report, predicting that India will surpass China for the first time in 2023, becoming the world's first population. After the news came out, the Indian media and the public discussed it. Some people think that this report foreshadowed India's "big country dream" to be realized, and some people began to analyze seriously. The population explosion will bring more opportunities to India or more challenges.

"Global Times" reporters discussed with the Indian people a few days ago that they had different opinions on their population problems. Some people think that "people are more powerful" and have a positive and optimistic attitude towards India's population growth. Young people who have studied in China in China said that the development of various states in India is uneven, and the gap between cities and rural areas is relatively large. Most rural residents may want more people to have a larger population, so that there are more labor cultivation. In contrast, most urban residents hope that there will be fewer people in India in the future, so that limited resources can be sufficient. Professor Kumar, who worked at a university in Bigharbon, told reporters that people with different religious beliefs in India are also different in fertility.

Northern India, Banglahla Abad. Data map

Other people, especially the elites represented by intellectuals, put forward the view of "more expensive population, but more expensive". They said that the "essence" here does not refer to the elite, but the workers who have received basic education and master a certain skill. Cummar, a retired civil servant who had worked in the Northern State Government, said that the era of economic advantages that decided to determine the economic advantage alone. For example, the number of unknown people in India is 1.7 million, and the number of civilian statistics is almost 8 times the official data, reaching 14 million, "aside from" politics correctness' Definition as a population that can bring dividends. "

Indian Prime Minister Modi often mentioned the country's demographic dividend in his speech and regards it as a driving force for the development of the country. Some opinion believes that in fact, India's demographic dividend window has opened as early as 2005 and 2006. Singh, a senior visiting scholar at the Institute of Institute of Institute of Influence and Policy, said that India's demographic dividend period is expected to last until 2055. Theoretically, if India is properly used in demographic dividends, it will usher in the golden period of development from 2020 to 2040.

However, "Population Dividends", as a concept, does not automatically transform into economic development. When Professor Menasky, a professor at the University of Bangall, India had previously described the demographic dividend as an opportunity with the Global Times reporter, "it needs to play a role under the right conditions, otherwise it is just a concept." From the perspective of Menasky, these conditions include but not only limited to the high population and physical fitness and education level, the proportion of skilled labor in the population, a relatively mature economic development environment, and large industries that can absorb labor. He emphasized that most of the above conditions should be available before the demographic dividend window is opened, instead of waiting until the window period is coming or at the time of the demographic dividend.

According to Indian media statistics, only about 3%of the labor force accepted by India has received regular vocational skills training certified by the Industrial Federation. The labor force without regular training can only be engaged in relatively simple labor, otherwise the products they produce on professional assembly lines may not meet the factory standards, and it is also easy to occur in safety accidents.

Some Chinese investors recently said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that he had previously invested and constructed two factories in central India and southern parts. It mainly produces smart devices such as mobile phones, but it is difficult to recruit skilled technicians in the local area. In particular, the skilled technicians who understand English can only retreat in the end, recruiting some young people who have received basic education to train from scratch.

In April of this year, the Indian Industry Federation issued a report that "how India uses the demographic dividend to promote economic growth", but the agency has to warn the government throughout the air, if there is no enough employment opportunity, if the labor force does not have the skills to engage in the corresponding work skills Then the so -called demographic dividend will be converted into a population burden. A few days ago, India launched the "Fire Road" recruitment reform plan. The young people protested the most fiercely. The reason was that the plan moved their "cakes" to achieve curve employment by participating in the army. This shows that even if they have a large number of young and middle -aged labor, when they lose their employment channels, they may become people who express dissatisfaction through violence at any time.

Behind the growing population growth of India, there are also many hidden concerns, including uneven population structures. According to the predictions of the Indian statistics department, if the current modeling rate of the young population and the growth rate of the elderly population is calculated, the number of elderly population in the State of Karara, Tamilnard and other states will exceed the young population in 2036.

According to India's "Na Canada Post" recently reported, India will become the world's first largest country next year. More than %of the population. The increase in population will bring tremendous pressure on India's resources and challenge India's achievement of sustainable development goals. India's News18 News Network puts the country's population problems globally globally, and believes that if the growth of the growing population cannot be guided to the expected direction, or the rapid deterioration of the living infrastructure conditions, the social material foundation is difficult to sustain.

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