Do n’t you want a monarchy in the capital market?

The popularity of the concept of new crown medicine set off on July 11 failed to exceed 24 hours.

On July 12, the concept of anti -epidemic concept stocks fell collectively, and the Junshi creatures with popular new crown drug VV116 naturally failed to escape. As of the close of the day, Junshi A shares fell 6.85%to close 68.31 yuan; Hong Kong stocks fell 7.56%.

The annoyance of the Junshi creatures cannot be approved late. On July 6, Junshi announced that the US FDA has accepted its PD-1 Tripley monoclonal listing application and is expected to announce the results before the end of December this year.

This is already the "World War II" to go to sea for the Junshi PD-1. In May of this year, the FDA asked Junshi to change the quality control process. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the FDA could not come to China to conduct on -site inspections on Junshi, which led to the stagnation of Tripley monetaba. Jun Shi has always emphasized that he will submit an application again to try to stabilize market confidence.

The first quarterly report in 2022 shows that there is currently 4.258 billion yuan on the Junshi Biological account. On June 14, the fixed increase plan of Junshi 70 million shares was amended. The raised funds became no more than 3.969 billion yuan, and the additional price was 56.7 yuan per share.

R & D investment is huge, PD-1 sales are unfavorable, and the application scenarios of new crown drugs are unknown. These may not be the most worried about Junshi creatures. If the stock price continues to fall like this, the work raised funds may not be able to carry out normally.

Do n’t you want Junshi creatures in the capital market?

The concept of the new crown cannot be reliable

On July 11, the new crown and antibody drugs of Teng Shengbo Pharmaceuticals were urgently hung in Gansu. The two monoclonal antibodies were priced at 2,417 yuan each. Although the "less than 10,000 yuan" said by the company's president Luo Yongqing, the gap with 10,000 yuan is still a bit big.

However, this is a lot stronger than VV116 for a long time.

Junshi creatures are the most active domestic pharmaceutical companies that lay out new crown drugs. At the beginning of the epidemic in 2020, Jun Shi cooperated with the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to develop a new crown neutralized antibody, and successfully authorized Lili to sell it in the United States. After the company's self -developed small molecule VV116 was approved at Uzbekistan at the end of 2021, Jun Shi has been working hard to promote this product to go public in China.

Jun Shi ran a few times for this product because there are not many stories that can be told at the moment.

As of now, only Tripley Mipide, Etzwe Mipida, and Adidamabi -resistant biomedical similar medicines were approved this year. Early clinical stage. Compared with other innovative pharmaceutical companies founded in the same period, there are very few cards in Junshi's hands.

At present, in 2021, Xiang Lilai authorized neutralized antibodies, so that Junshi made a lot of money. However, this antibody is said to be invalid for Omikon's mutation strains and has been restricted by FDA. "Future application prospects are limited" and related clinical clinicals have also been suspended.

At the beginning of the year, VV116, which has received much attention, has recently appeared in public opinion. It is still a rumor that Jun Shi has denied that "it cannot be listed on the market due to the lack of standards". As for the progress of the listing, Junshi's response was "it will begin to communicate with the regulatory authorities to submit a listing application."

Junshi must speed up, because the new crown medicine worldwide wants to send it to the Chinese market today. At the end of June, Tian Anna, President of Merck China, said that the company's new crown oral medication Moni Nupel had submitted an application in China; on July 4, Ping An Yanye Yiyi Co., Ltd. said that his own new crown oral antiviral drugs have been submitted in China in China Application for listing; last weekend, Astrakang's new crown prevention of drugs in Hainan; just yesterday, Teng Shengbo's new crown and antibody therapy has begun to sell, and its price is far beyond market expectations.

At the end of June, when Junshi responded to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's inquiry letter for his fixed increase plan, he mentioned VV116. Junshi said that there are many new drug approval links, and it is easily affected by uncertainties such as technological advancedness and policy changes. Therefore, the approval of VV116 is also "uncertain".

The road is not right

The annual report of 2021 shows that the R & D expenses of Junshi have climbed from 122 million yuan to 2.069 billion yuan in the past 5 years, and the product pipeline increased from 12 to 44.

Jun Shi has been working hard to fulfill his responsibility as a Biotech company, which is undeniable. But why is it so hard, why is the company's product line still unsolved?

In March of this year, Junshi released a fixed increase plan saying that more than 90%of the nearly 4 billion yuan raised should be used in the "Innovation Pharmaceutical R & D project". Without blood transfusion, subsequent research and development may not continue.

However, what kind of solid can continue blood transfusion?

Tripley monoclonal resistance is the first domestic PD-1 listing. According to the strategy of Junshi, this product avoids competitive large cancer species such as lung cancer. Cancer these small indications. This logic seemed to work well, but Jun Shi may not expect at the time that after the price of medical insurance was reduced by 60%, the market for minor disease was not enough to get a large amount.

In addition, in 2021, Junshi's commercial team was in trouble: after experiencing the failure of Astraikon's cooperation and the extension of the sales executives multiple times, the sales volume of Tripley monoclonal resistance increased by only 17.53%year -on -year, or even low. 51.6%in 2020. Affected by this, the sales of this product throughout the year were only 412 million yuan in transcripts, a decrease of about 60%compared with the 1.03 billion yuan in 2020. After the end of the year with Astraikon, Tripley's sales began to rise, but according to Junshi's forecast, the performance in the second quarter could not even return to the level of the same period last year. As for the similar drugs of Ada Mumab, there are five in China who are approved in China.

On the surface, in 2021, Junshi Bio lost more than 700 million yuan, and the company's book funds were sufficient to support it for several years. However, the current commercialization ability and depth of the pipelines showed by Junshi may be difficult to support the confidence of shareholders.

Jun Shi should not fall down, after all, it once worked so hard to represent the Chinese biomedical community and prove the innovative ability of China's original research. But now, Junshi is facing the passive situation of two -tier operations. The R & D and sales system needs to be adjusted or invested sharply. This is the life door of Junshi "high and low".

In this pot, Astrikon does not carry back, the market environment is not back, and medical insurance is not back.

The concept of the new crown medicine has been proven to be unreliable.

Writing | Su Lin

Edit ｜ Jiang Yun Jia Ting

Operation | Valley

Illustration | Visual China

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