[Transfer] Merck's new crown oral medication is listed in China, but we may not need

[Transfer] Merck's new crown oral medication is listed in China, but we may not need

Source: amino observation/Fang Taozhi

Tian Anna, President of Merhadon, said recently that Molnupiravir, a new crown oral medicine, has been submitted to the market in China.

If it was placed half a year ago, the news may cause many people to cheer and see the "hope of the people", and may even hit the stock price of other new crown concept stocks in China. But now the situation has changed.

At present, the domestic epidemic is stable, and Pfizer's new crown oral medication has been approved to be listed in China. Many domestic players' new crown oral pills are on the eve of the collision line. In this case, Minushdor's Mnupel seemed less seductive.

After all, what do you say to introduce Mnipovir? Is it not good enough? Safety doubt? Or the price high?

/ 01 /

The efficacy is not high and the price is high

As the world's first new crown oral medication, Mnipi was regarded as the existence of saving the world at the beginning of its release.

At that time, Meridon's global research and development director said that Molnupiravir was named after MJOLLNIR of Thor. The implication is to want Molnupiravir to give a fatal blow to the Destroyer as a thunderous hammer in the movie, and it also gives a fatal blow to the new coronary virus.

Unfortunately, this hammer failed to give a fatal blow to the virus, but was defeated.

At the beginning of October last year, Meridodon announced the clinical data of Mulupwe's three phases of patients with mild patients. Compared with the placebo 29 days later, Mnu Pewei reduced the risk of hospitalization or death of non -hospitalized patients by 50%, and a 100%reduction of 100% Risk of death.

This data is also amazing without other oral medicines. Although the effect is not as good as neutralizing antibodies, it is easy to take and the price is relatively low.

However, in later clinical data, 50%of the protection rate failed.

At the end of November, Meridodon updated the complete data of Mulu Pyrey's clinical clinical phase of the third phase of mild patients. Compared with the placebo, Mnupel reduced the risk of 30%of all the subjects, reducing 89% Risk of death.

From 50%to 30%, the protection rate is a big diving. It can be said that the effect of Mnipovwe has reached the acceptable lowest point.

At the same time, Pfizer, which was listed, also announced the clinical data of the new crown oral medication PAXLOVID, with a protection rate of 89%of light and ordinary patients.

There is no harm without comparison. Under the comparison of PaxLovid, the effect of Mnipovir was even more questioned.

The situation of the two entered groups is not exactly the same. In the Mnipovir test, the proportion of severe deaths of the placebo group reached 14%, and it was about 7%in Paxlovid. Although it cannot be compared directly, from the perspective of data, the effect of Paxlovid is much stronger.

Due to the decline in efficacy, some foreign countries began to "say no" to Murdei in Murisha. At the end of 2021, the French Minister of Health said that due to the disappointment of the test data of Merck's new crown oral medication, orders signed with Meridon have been canceled.

In February this year, the Financial Times also reported that due to data problems, Merck's new crown oral medication may not be approved by the European Union. Even in the United States, many doctors treat them as "spare tires", and they will only open them to patients who cannot use PaxLovid.

The "people's hope" halo is no longer. However, don't look at the effect of Mnipovwell's effect, but its price is not cheap.

The price of Mnipi in developed countries in Europe and the United States is 700 US dollars a course, equivalent to about 4,700 yuan. In comparison, the price of PaxLovid in developed countries in Europe and the United States is 500 US dollars a course, equivalent to RMB 3350, and the price is slightly lower.

Then, such expensive prices can only bring 30%of the protection rate to patients with illness. For patients, it remains to be questioned whether Moni Petiweer really has clinical benefits.

In addition, Mnuti was also trapped in the vortex of drug safety.

/ 02 /

Cancer, teratogenic, and increased virus mutations?

Farming, carcinogenic, and increased mutations in the new coronal virus ... Since being approved for listing, the market's question of the security of Mnupwe has never stopped.

The reason why Moni Pewova's security is questioned lies in its mechanism.

Mnire is a RNA polymerase inhibitor. We all know that the new coronal virus is a RNA virus, and the key to replication is RNA polymerase.

We can regard RNA polymerase as the engine of the development of new coronal virus. The role of RNA polymerase inhibitors is to destroy this engine.

After metabolism in the human body, the NHC (nucleoshenucleoside analog β-D-N4-hydroxyl cytoside) was obtained after metabolism in the human body. NHC can mix a large amount of alkali A and G in the new crown virus RNA, resulting in RNA replication process There are a lot of errors to induce virus mutations. The ultimate synthesis is some pseudo -viruses that are not infectious.

You can simply regard the virus as an assembly line factory, and on the virus's assembly line, the wrong parts are installed on the key parts of the virus, so that the subsequent viruses cannot work properly.

But the problem also appeared. DNA in human cells will also grasp nucleotide when copying, and the error nucleotide may also be provided to the normal DNA.

A study published in the Magazine of Infectious Diseases found that Mnipovwe's metabolites NHC could be integrated into human DNA and mutated in it. This also means that Moni Pipovir may not only cause the growth of carcinogenic tumors, but also cause babies to malformation. Another animal reproductive study found that Mnipiravi, an organ formation for pregnant rabbits, will cause the fetus to lose weight. In another drug study similar to Mnipovir, it was found that the lack of teeth and skulls after the birth of animals after treatment.

In order to cope with potential terators, Mnipi was banned from being used for pregnant women. At the same time, people who take this drug also need contraception to prevent children from deformity.

If the problem is said to be avoided by restricting the use of pregnant women, it is difficult to avoid the effect of carcinogenic.

Although Mini Puffov has been tested in the animal's body, this does not show that Mini Pewavir does not have the risk of mutation. After all, the clinical trial time is short, and the occurrence of cancer may take several months or even years to be observed.

In addition, Mniti also has a hidden worry that the mutation of the new coronal virus will cause the release of a more toxic variant.

Although the most prescribed drug concentration, Mnuti can prevent the replication and dissemination of the new coronary virus. However, if the patients are randomly reduced during the medication process, they may lead to mutations in the virus without the lower drug concentration, but they fail to kill the mutant.

Overall, the safety of security is always shrouded in Mnipovir.

/ 03 /

New crown oral medicine, the effect and safety are needed

At the beginning of the market, Molnupiravir did sell it out of stock.

The Merid East quarterly reported that Molnupiravir's revenue in the first quarter was 3.2 billion US dollars, which was more than twice the sales of PaxLovid.

Earlier, Molshadon's expected Molnupiravir revenue for annual revenue was 50 to 5.5 billion U.S. dollars. Today's sales revenue in just the first quarter has reached 64%of the annual expectations.

However, things are reversing. Since May, Phaxlovid's sales are surging, while Molnupiravir's sales have begun to decline.

Back in China, will we need such a high -priced but not good new crown oral medicine? The answer may also be, no need.

On the one hand, the current domestic demand for new crown oral medications is not large.

Under the dynamic clearance policy, the overall control of the domestic epidemic is relatively stable. According to the data of the Health Commission, there are only 159 domestic existing cases in the Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions.

In addition, domestic is not available for no portable medicine. On February 11, PAXLOVID has been approved by the Certificate of Drug Administration to be approved and registered, and it is temporarily included in the scope of medical insurance payment at a price of 2300 yuan/box.

In the case where the number of people with medicine and infection will not surge, the current demand for new crown oral medications is not large.

On the other hand, there are many domestic new crown oral medicines.

At present, the domestic self -developed new crown oral medication should meet the reserves of the new crown oral medication in the future. As of now, domestic new crown small molecular drugs include SIM0417 of Xianyin Pharmaceuticals, Azfding of real creatures, VV116 of Junshi Bio / Wangshan Wangshui More than a dozen models such as SHEN26, Ray1216 of all beings, involving a variety of technical routes such as 3CL protease and RNA polymerase. Among them, there are only one step away from several new crown oral medications.

In comprehensive consideration of the current situation of the epidemic prevention and control, our requirements for the new crown oral medication have long been not only solved the problem that there is nothing, but the amount and quality.

So, what are the advantages of an oral medicine with a high efficacy and economic value? Is it not fragrant for a wave of domestic oral medicine?

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